Fool Me Once... Sophomore Wide Receivers Set to Bust Again

August 27, 2018

Jason Katz looks at second-year wide receivers who may follow up disappointing rookie seasons with even worse results in 2018. These WR should be draft-day avoids and could be fantasy football busts.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again." Unfortunately, the classic proverb from the eloquent President George W. Bush is not entirely accurate when it comes to fantasy football.

Every year, fantasy gamers are sucked in by rookie hype and every year, many of them fail to live up to expectations. Frustrated gamers proclaim that they won't fall for it again! Inevitably, they always do. Devante Parker. Kevin White. Laquon Treadwell. Breshad Perriman. The list goes on and on of players that failed to impress as rookies that were irresponsibly given a second chance.

Fantasy owners are surely going to fall for their failed 2017 rookies once again. I'm just here so I won't get fined for not at least warning you all in advance.

Second-Year Receivers to Avoid

Mike Williams (LAC)

Please do not draft Mike Williams...like at all. If you're in a standard sized league where rosters are about 15-16 players, Williams should not be on anyone's team. Per Rotoworld's Evan Silva, since 2000, out of 37 first round receivers to have mostly nothing rookie seasons, only one, Santana Moss, went on to have any sort of productive career. Williams' 11 receptions for 95 yards falls into this category. And before you jump to say, "he was hurt," I must remind you that he was active for 10 games last season. Mike Williams is definitively behind Tyrell Williams on the depth chart. It is a debate or even particularly close. Tyrell is a vastly superior player coming off an incredibly efficient year. Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams will play in two receiver sets. When the Chargers need a third receiver, it won't necessarily be Mike Williams - he may share time with Travis Benjamin depending on what the Chargers are trying to do on a particular play. Mike may be more involved in the red zone, but absent an injury in front of him, it's hard to envision him having any sort of fantasy relevant role.

John Ross (CIN)

Remember that Evan Silva stat from before? Yeah, it applies to John Ross as well. "But he only played in three games and saw just two targets." Well, that counts. Being injured for most of a rookie season does not exempt players from this list. With that being said, I do think Ross has a higher shot of working out than Mike Williams, but I still would not advise drafting Ross. He has 4.2 speed, which is something you can't teach, but he does not know how to play wide receiver. He can win with pure speed. If you want a player that will go 1-20 most of the time and 3-130-2 once or twice, then Ross is your guy. I expect Tyler Boyd to start alongside A.J. Green in two-receiver sets. The third receiver in an Andy Dalton offense does not have value.

Carlos Henderson (DEN)

This one will be short and sweet. Last year's third-round pick didn't seem to take too kindly to the Broncos drafting Courtland Sutton and Daesean Hamilton. In response, he went AWOL after the draft and was recently suspended a game for violating the league's substance abuse policy. His NFL career is likely over before it even began.

Ardarius Stewart (NYJ)

Here's another guy facing a suspension. ArDarius Stewart failed a drug test and will miss the first two games of the season. He will also likely miss the next 14 as he has little prayer of making any headway in the Jets' crowded WR corps. His career is also likely over before it even began.

Chad Williams (ARI)

I would not write off Chad Williams 100% just yet, but he's doubtful to make any noise in 2018. Larry Fitzgerald is still going to lead this team in targets, followed by David Johnson, who is both the RB1 and the WR2. There's only room for one more potentially relevant pass catcher and, by all accounts, it is going to be rookie Christian Kirk. Williams just won't see enough volume to matter in a Sam Bradford and then Josh Rosen offense.

Josh Reynolds (LAR)

I like Josh Reynolds as a player. He probably deserves to be a team's WR3. Unfortunately, he is on the Rams, where he is behind Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. Jared Goff will barely crack 500 pass attempts this season, at best. I'd be surprised if Kupp maintained fantasy value as the third receiver. Reynolds would need multiple injuries to gain any traction.

Ryan Switzer (OAK)

I have no idea why the Cowboys traded Ryan Switzer for basically nothing, but the move certainly did not help. The Cowboys have no clear WR1, which presents an opportunity for someone to emerge. The Raiders have a clear WR1 in Amari Cooper and a clear WR2 in Jordy Nelson. They also, for the time being, have Martavis Bryant and gave Seth Roberts a two-year extension last summer. There's no room for Switzer. He will return punts and play on special teams and when the Raiders go five wide (and perhaps in four-receiver sets when Bryant inevitably gets suspended). Whichever way you slice it, Switzer is not going to matter for fantasy.

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