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The Patriots shocked many earlier this week by shipping Brandin Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams. The Patriots acquired Cooks from New Orleans for a first round pick in 2017, and shipped him out for a similar price just one season later, essentially making him a rental.
The resulting domino effect will have a great impact in the fantasy community, not just at the wide receiver position.
Let's break down what the move means for Cooks, the Rams, and the remaining receivers in New England.
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Cooks' Value Should Hold Steady
Brandin Cooks is a versatile receiver who's been successful in both New Orleans and New England. He's had at least 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in each of the last three seasons. Cooks is, by all accounts, an adaptable personality who should have no problem fitting in with the Rams just as he did in New England.
While Sammy Watkins struggled to find a steady role in LA, I wouldn't expect Cooks to have a similar experience. Watkins had had an up and down career before joining the Rams. Watkins didn't join the Rams until mid August. He didn't have an offseason to study the playbook or gain chemistry with Jared Goff. Goff missed Watkins on open throws multiple times last season. Had the Rams kept Watkins this offseason, I thought he'd make major improvements with a summer of working with Goff.
Cooks has that advantage. He has five months to work with Goff and learn Sean McVay's complex offense from front to back. McVay is an outspoken believer in Cooks and will find ways to get him the ball. Cooks should fill in the role Watkins played as the deep threat on the outside, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't see a fair amount of snaps from the slot this season. Expect Cooks to see the highest usage in the Rams offense of anyone not named Todd Gurley.
Sean McVay's offense shares the ball amongst many players. Last season, the difference between the team's leader in targets and their third-highest target share was just nine targets. In his final season in Washington, four different players saw at least 89 targets. Since the Rams are going to be sharing the wealth, Cooks doesn't have the ceiling some of the elite WR1 have, but his floor is high. He should be the primary passing option in the Rams offense, and I'd expect him to reach 1,000 yards for the first straight season.
I'd happily draft Cooks in the third round this year, and maybe even the late second depending on how the draft plays out.
Rams Reaction: Kupp, Woods still have value
As mentioned above, Sean McVay's offense doesn't revolve around one receiver. Everyone in the passing game is going to be involved. Last seasons target share broke down as follows:
- Cooper Kupp - 94 targets, 62 receptions
- Todd Gurley - 87 targets, 64 receptions
- Robert Woods - 85 targets, 56 receptions (note: Woods only played in 12 games and would have easily crossed 100 targets if he played in 15.)
- Sammy Watkins - 70 targets, 39 receptions.
I don't imagine Gurley's volume fluctuating because of this move. Cooks should absorb all of Watkins targets and then some. If anyone is going to cross 100 targets this year, I'd bank on it being Cooks.
Still, Woods and Kupp have the potential to be fantasy starters, just with a bit toned down expectations. Woods was being touted as high as being a sneaky WR1 play next year. I expect him to be the second option in the Rams passing attack, hovering around 70 receptions and 800-900 yards. He's a low-end WR2 at the moment, assuming Goff continues to improve heading into 2018.
Kupp will see the biggest hit with Cooks coming in, but I still think he'll be a worthy FLEX play this season. Look at how Jamison Crowder performed in McVay's 2016 Washington offense. In a crowded offense with Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jordan Reed (or Vernon Davis), Crowder shined out of the slot, recording 67 receptions for 847 yards and seven touchdowns. It's not inconceivable to think Kupp can put up similar numbers. If Kupp's ADP falls due to the Cooks acquisition, he could once again make for a great sleeper selection in the later rounds of the draft.
Last note for the Rams: the Cooks acquisition all but kills the hype Josh Reynolds had in dynasty leagues entering the season. I can see a world where Gerald Everett breaks out as another option in the passing game this year. Barring injury, I can't see that happening for Reynolds.
Patriots Reaction: Julian Edelman Continues to Rise
Despite missing the entire 2017 season due to injury, Juliana Edelman couldn't enter a better possible situation in 2018. Edelman will be the de facto number two option in New England with Cooks out of the picture. Fellow slot receiver Danny Amendola left for Miami this offseason, making Edelman the undisputed slot option. Edelman racked up 98 receptions for 1,106 yards and three touchdowns in 2016. I'd expect a fully healthy Edelman to put up similar numbers. He's a hot option in PPR leagues and could emerge as a solid WR2.
Newcomer Jordan Matthews seems to be the favorite to take over for Cooks on the outside. Matthews doesn't have the ceiling Cooks and Amendola combined for, with 200 targets in 2o17. Even with Amendola taking a large share of those targets, there's plenty to go around. Should Matthews emerge as a starter in New England, he has WR3 appeal with WR2 upside should he really breakout.
Bill Belichick is often unpredictable on who he's going to feed on the offensive end. Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan are guys to watch should the Matthews experiment fail. Even if Matthews succeeds, Hogan and Mitchell would be wise picks in later rounds even if they're just bye-week fill-ins. In deeper leagues, keep an eye on Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson as potential deep-sleeper picks to emerge in New England. All told, it's going to be a very intriguing season as usual in New England.
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