August 7, 2017

Taylor Maxston profiles Houston Texans tight end (TE) C.J. Fiedorowicz as a fantasy football sleeper in 2017. He could be a value in fantasy drafts based on ADP.

By virtue of the position they play, the value of tight ends in fantasy football is often downplayed. Some of them can get similar target shares to top wide receivers (see the Travis Kelces and Kyle Rudolphs of the world), yet the production for most fantasy tight ends is largely predicated on two things: their touchdown upside and weekly match-ups. For those owners not willing to spend an early draft pick on a stud tight end, streaming players who can prosper in favorable match-ups with a great chance for red zone targets might ultimately make the difference between winning and losing a week.

Houston Texans tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners who snagged him off of the waiver wire in 2016. He finished in the top 20 at the position and had nine games with four or more receptions, emerging as a valued possession target in the Texans' offense with a solid floor in PPR formats.

What exactly should we expect from Fiedorowicz heading into next season? Let me temper expectations by saying that he won’t be a viable week-in and week-out starter for your fantasy team like some of the players going before him. However, he is in a situation made for him to prosper as an effective streaming option at worst and a reception-hound at best.

Opportunity is the Name of the Game

C.J. Fiedorowicz is by no means the most physically gifted tight end, but he does have opportunity on his side. He was targeted 89 times in 2016, the 13^th highest for starting tight ends, which included 12 in the red-zone. Although he only caught 4 touchdowns, he received the second most red-zone targets on his team with a 50% catch rate. The best threat to score in that area of the field outside of DeAndre Hopkins is undoubtedly Fiedorowicz, providing the heavily coveted touchdown-upside a fantasy tight end needs to have. In addition, with recently injured wide-out Will Fuller being sidelined for 2-3 months, his targets through the first few weeks of the regular season are likely to divert in large part to the next most targeted player on the Texans: C.J. Fiedorowicz.

Houston's Offensive Scheme Will Favor TE Production

Texans head coach Bill O’Brien is notorious for wanting to establish a strong ground game before anything else with his offenses. Over his past three years with the team, Houston has always been in the top six for rushing attempts per season even though the offensive line has never been anywhere near the elite level in the NFL.

When you have a run-first coach like O’Brien favoring a war of attrition rather than an air raid, tight ends become invaluable both as extra blockers and receivers on play action passes. Fiedorowicz was a trusted and solid blocker in 2016, getting 786 total snaps on offense with nearly an equivocal amount of pass snaps to run block snaps (343:387). It should come as no surprise that the more offensive snaps a tight end gets, the greater the odds are of increased reception and touchdown totals. This is one of the central reasons behind why second-string tight end Ryan Griffin will not be as great a threat to steal from Fiedorowicz, as he played on 204 less snaps and was graded by Pro Football Focus in the 40^th percentile (out of a possible 100 total points) as a receiver.

Where Should You Draft Fiedorowicz?

Assessing how well C.J. Fiedorowicz can do in the upcoming fantasy season is made difficult because of how much he has going for him and how much he will have to overcome. On one hand, he is the second biggest red-zone threat on the team and will heavily benefit from an O’Brien rushing offense that can feed tight ends the football. On the other, I see a tight end with an unremarkable skill-set in a Texans offense that has never ranked in the top 15 for both rushing and passing yards over the last three seasons.

In standard, Fiedorowicz occupies a similar tier to that of Charles Clay and Julius Thomas as tight ends that simply don’t have enough overall upside to be game-breakers. I wouldn’t touch him unless you have an extremely deep league and can afford to offer up a bench spot for him with your last few picks. Alternatively, Fiedorowicz’s value in PPR is much greater due to his reception upside and how he could still receive a large red-zone target share, but he should never be selected before the 13^th round in 10 team leagues. There is simply too much uncertainty and too brief a history of production to justify him going ahead of names like Eric Ebron and Coby Fleener. Draft him with the knowledge that as a streaming weapon, he could dominate favorable match-ups and exploit defenses that are weak over the middle.

More Sleepers & Draft Values