April 28, 2017

Kevin McHugh discusses the fantasy football dynasty league stock of current NFL wide receivers (WR) for 2017. These players may be risers or fallers depending on ADP.

With NFL teams placing more and more emphasis on the passing game, wide receivers will only become more important assets in dynasty leagues. While there has been plenty of focus on the rookie crop of wide receivers, a few more veteran wideouts saw their value change dramatically.

Listed below are two receivers to buy, and two receivers to sell, based on current ADP in dynasty leagues.

Note: 2017 average draft positions from Fantasy Football Calculator are in parentheses.

Stock Rising

Terrelle Pryor, Washington Redskins (5.12)

2016 Stats: 77 receptions, 1,004 yards, 4 touchdowns.

No wide receiver has seen his fantasy stock increase over the course of last season than Terrelle Pryor.  Pryor finally made the full transition from quarterback to wide receiver in 2016, as he went from a complete non-factor to a serious dynasty asset in a breakout season with the Cleveland Browns. Pryor showed he was athletic enough to beat NFL defensive backs, and more importantly, was able to beat them deep, recording five receptions of at least 35 yards.  Unfortunately, Pryor was saddled with a difficult quarterback situation in Cleveland, as the trio of Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, and Cody Kessler likely capped Pryor's true upside.

Now with Washington, Terrelle Pryor gets a serious quarterback upgrade in Kirk Cousins, who ranked third overall amongst quarterbacks with 8.1 yards per attempt in 2016. Having lost DeSean Jackson to Tampa Bay, Washington is hoping Pryor can replace Jackson as the teams' deep threat, and Cousins should be able to take advantage of Pryor’s speed. Having signed a one-year deal with the Redskins, Pryor is eager to prove 2016 wasn’t a fluke, and will have every opportunity to do so with Cousins at quarterback.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (4.12)

Final Stats: 92 receptions, 1,137 yards, 9 touchdowns.

In dynasty formats, while some may be drawn to younger players with upside as opposed to proven talents, why not select a player who can help you in both the present and the future?  Michael Thomas fits this profile perfectly.  To put it quite simply, Thomas was an absolute stud as a rookie, ranking in the top-10 amongst wide receivers in receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per target, and catch rate.  Thomas went above and beyond his expectations, and was a steal in both redraft and dynasty startups.

With the departure of Brandin Cooks, there should only be more targets for Michael Thomas, even if New Orleans selects a wide receiver in the 2017 NFL Draft. Cooks commanded 117 targets in 2016, and while Willie Snead figures to pick up some of those targets, Thomas could potentially surpass the 121 looks he saw as a rookie.

Drew Brees is showing no signs of slowing down, so draft the 24-year old Thomas with confidence. He’s a beast in every format, and should remain a powerful dynasty asset for years to come.

Stock Falling

Kevin White, Chicago Bears (3.03)

Final Stats: 19 receptions, 187 yards, 0 touchdowns. 

Drafted seventh overall in 2015, Kevin White’s dynasty stock has plummeted ever since. Although highly athletic, White has been the definition of injury-prone, undergoing season-ending surgery for stress fractures in his legs in each of his first two NFL seasons. On the rare occasions in which he did see action in 2016, White was almost a non-factor.

Chicago signed Mike Glennon in the offseason further damages Kevin White’s value, and the Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright signings feel like insurance for the oft-injured White.  If you absolutely have to invest in the Bears' offense, go after Cameron Meredith instead.  Spending a high draft pick on White in a dynasty startup is a bad move, as those who did so in 2015 and 2016 can attest to.

Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers (4.02)

Final Stats: 63 receptions, 941 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns. 

Kelvin Benjamin has established himself as one of the most overrated wide receivers in the NFL, as he not only plays in an offense that is not ideal for wide receiver production, but he is not nearly as talented as people think.  In 2017, Kelvin Benjamin averaged a paltry eight yards per target, and only caught 54% of his targets. His rookie year in 2015 wasn’t much different, as he caught only half of his whopping 146 targets, averaging 6.9 yards per target.  Benjamin was also benched on two separate occasions this past season, as he failed to get on the same page with both the coaching staff and Cam Newton.

At this point, it's safe to say Benjamin needs serious volume to be productive, unless his efficiency dramatically improves. Carolina will have a solid offense as long as Cam Newton is under center, but a good portion of their offensive production comes on the ground. If the Panthers are able to bounce back in the win column in the coming years, Benjamin’s production will suffer, as there will be fewer targets to go around.  In addition, while Cam Newton can be quite the force in fantasy football, has never been the most accurate passer, which won't help Kelvin Benjamin.

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis