November 25, 2015

Ed Gorelik analyzes Week 12 sleepers available on 2015 fantasy football waiver wires. These NFL running backs (RBs), wide receivers (WRs), tight ends (TEs) and quarterbacks (QBs) are fantasy football sleepers.

Waiver Wire Adds for Week Twelve

The eleventh Sunday of the season is through, and as most people assumed the return of Tony Romo was the exact medicine the Cowboys needed to end their losing streak. In other great news, Cam Newton continues to dance and we're okay with that. Apparently Ron Rivera also dabbled in the locker room.

Week 11 saw Jameis Winston and Doug Martin have dominant performances against the Eagles, a blast from the hype of Christmas past Kyle Rudolph, and saw DeAndre Hopkins put the first nail in the island of Revis.

Below are some waiver wire pickups and sleepers for Week 12 who can have a potential impact for your teams. My piece won't cover all waiver wire adds and targets each week, as there are just too many with all the league types out there, but I'll be highlighting and prioritizing the biggest impact players. Additionally, be sure to check out many more great RotoBaller articles and waiver wire analysis pieces at each position throughout the week, including risers/fallers, deeper league sleepers, rankings and more.

Week 12 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

Cutler's revenge game didn't work out as planned, and Cutler actually failed to have a passable fantasy game in general. Oh well, that's what happens when we buy into narratives. Luckily though, Cutler's schedule for the remainder of the season remains favorable - and the return of Matt Forte / Alshon Jeffery in the near future will be adding weapons for Cutler to use as he faces the Packers, 49ers, Redskins, Vikings, and Buccaneers. It's an easy playoff schedule and he'll be a great streaming option. Cutler will likely be on here every week from now on until he's over 60% owned.

Jameis Winston (QB, TB)

36% Owned on Fleaflicker

Is Winston really going to come on this quickly? Winston has managed to put up double digit points every single week this season in standard scoring, and is currently ranked 13th amongst all QBs - as a rookie. Winston has missed a lot of his supporting cast throughout the season with injuries to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and assorted injuries to their depth - be he has managed to keep putting up fantasy points regardless. His schedule from now until the playoffs look quite strong too as he's seeing the Colts, Falcons, Saints, and Bears. Unfortunately one of his playoff weeks are against the Rams, but four out of five ain't too bad. Winston's a possible streaming option in the next few weeks as a high-end QB2.

Brian Hoyer (QB, HOU)

17% Owned on Fleaflicker

Set to return next week, Hoyer's going to be playing against the New Orleans Saints defense that just recently fired Rob Ryan. There's a legitimate reason to question whether or not that will change anything about how bad this defense has played, because when Rob Ryan was let go, Sean Payton was quoted saying that Dennis Allen (the new DC) was already calling the coverage before the firing ever happened. That bodes well for this defense continuing to be horrible, and with DeAndre Hopkins fresh off of a complete destruction of Darrelle Revis - these two shouldn't have any trouble destroying the Saints.

Other Quarterback Options: 

• BUF QB Tyrod Taylor - 45% owned - Tyrod isn't very "good" but he's good enough to be a strong every-week QB2 option.
• TEN QB Marcus Mariota - 52% owned - Mariota faces two easy weeks coming up, but then will likely be snuffed out for the rest of the season as his schedule becomes significantly darker. The already streaky youngster is a QB2 at best for the next two weeks, and then droppable.
• DEN QB Brock Osweiler - 23% owned - In his first ever game, Osweiler was quite decent fantasy wise, but unfortunately is going to be seeing the Patriots this upcoming week. I'm very low on the prospects of Osweiler having a great game against one of the best coaches in NFL history, but hey, if you're in need he does have a great cast of players to throw to.

More Options: Teddy Bridgewater, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Week 12 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Three running backs will be entering the waiver wire in high demand this week, and there are strong arguments for either of the three to be your priority:

Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)

31% Owned on Fleaflicker

Rawls faces the unfortunate issue of having Marshawn Lynch on his team. If Lynch returns, Rawls likely loses all value because of the Seahawks showing nothing regarding putting Lynch on the bench in favor of him.

Rawls is still a must own in all leagues - but once Lynch returns (which is yet to  be determined), he may be better left on your bench until a clear picture emerges of how the carries will be split up. Earlier today, it was also reported that Lynch may have a sports hernia which would require surgery. There should be more details later today or tomorrow, and if Lynch requires surgery it may end his season and easily make Rawls the #1 waiver wire option. Stay tuned for further updates.

Javorius Allen (RB, BAL)

10% Owned on Fleaflicker

Next we've got Javorius Allen. With Forsett out for the year, Allen is likely to get first crack at the job - if it doesn't turn into a committee. I make that distinction because Allen wasn't a college player that seemed like he'd make a successful NFL feature back, or even more than a committee running back based off his college film.

The Ravens have two players behind Allen in Raheem Mostert and Terrance West, but neither of them saw usage after Forsett went down even though Mostert was active. Will that change? Who knows, but Allen's going to get the first carry next week on a Ravens team that's going to be missing their #1 WR, #1 QB, and now they're #1 RB. There are going to be concerns about his ability to produce, but he will be getting the opportunity and is worth a shot. Allen should be picked up everywhere.

Spencer Ware (RB, KC)

1% Owned on Fleaflicker

Spencer Ware is a big "who?" kind of name. One of the best non-NFL employed talent evaluators Matt Waldman wrote in depth about Ware, and stated when Ware entered the draft that he could be a great NFL-caliber back. Well, in about two quarters of play he put up a great stat-line with 11 carries for 96 yards, two touchdowns, and one reception for five yards. With West injured, a talented Ware might get an extended look as they let his hamstring heal - and as everyone knows by now, the #1 running back on an Andy Reid team is worth a lot. Ware should be picked up everywhere.

Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL)

46% Owned on Fleaflicker

There was so much hype surrounding Tevin Coleman leading up to this year's fantasy drafts. It was clear he wasn't the right fit for Kyle Shanahan's scheme - but the highlight-reel-making player was viewed highly and was even given the starting job to open the season, until he made it clear he wasn't able to be productive in the scheme and wasn't able to hold onto the ball.

Coleman has many issues with basic running back traits, from running too upright to holding the ball in the wrong hands while running - but you'd hope that the Falcons could see the error of their ways, and make use of this very talented running back by changing the scheme to fit him a bit more. After Devonta Freeman missed most of the Week 11 game with a concussion, it's unclear how much time he will miss if any. Coleman's upside is high, but his floor is incredibly low. He should be owned in all leagues regardless, at least until there's more clarity on Freeman's situation.

Shaun Draughn (RB, SF)

12% Owned in Fleaflicker

Draughn is showing surprisingly good PPR value as he's caught four and eight receptions in his last two games. Although the yardage and touchdown totals promise to stay low, he's becoming a potential every-week FLEX option as he handles three-down duties for the Blaine Gabbert-led 49ers. He's worth owning as a FLEX in PPR leagues, and might even be a decent standard league streaming option in some weeks for teams hurting at running back.

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA)

35% Owned on Fleaflicker

Ajayi had his quietest week so far, but there's no reason to doubt his talent. If he's still on your waivers, he's got the highest upside after the four above him. All it takes is a single injury to Lamar Miller and a talented Ajayi is the feature back for a talented Dolphins squad.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET)

28% Owned on Fleaflicker

Riddick's just an every week feature here at this point, continuing to show PPR value even in weeks where his yardage is weak. He's a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, and should be owned in every single one.

Other Running Back Options: 

• IND RB Ahmad Bradshaw - 13% owned - Well, we finally got the Bradshaw we remembered. Two touchdowns and low yardage. His role may grow, or it may stay the same, but he provides relief and depth for playoff teams at this point.
• DET RB Ameer Abdullah - 56% owned - I wondered if Abdullah could return to relevance last week, and it turns out this time the Lions let Bell keep Abdullah's seat warm on the bench. Abdullah might get chances to develop as the Lions season is lost now - and although that doesn't scream fantasy value, if things go well Abdullah can definitely take advantage.
• HOU RB Jonathan Grimes - 15% owned - Grimes was by far the best looking running back for the Houston Texans' against the Jets. It wouldn't be surprising if he sees a small expansion of his role.
• DAL RB Robert Turbin - 21% Owned - Turbin operated as the backup behind perennially injured Darren McFadden. He's worth handcuffing if you're a McFadden owner.
• TB RB Charles Sims - 58% owned - Overrated by the fantasy community, Sims is a decent back playing behind a far better back. He offers some low-end PPR flex value, and minimal standard value outside of a handcuff.
• WAS RB Chris Thompson - 10% owned - Low volume, but efficient, Thompson has gotten good PPR work in games where the Redskins fall behind. With Morris injured his role may grow.
• TEN RB David Cobb - 42% owned - I've been listening to coaches blow smoke about their players long enough to know that an endorsement is temporary. Cobb is still, in my eyes, the best option for downfield between the tackle running for the Titans - and might be able to gain that role once he settles in. His first NFL game as a rotational back shouldn't be what scares you off of him unless he continues to struggle.

More Options: Denard Robinson, Chris Polk, Rod Smith, Tim Hightower, Dexter McCluster, Jamize Olawale, Orleans Darkwa, Bilal Powell, Stevan Ridley

Week 12 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

Terrance Williams (WR, DAL)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone. Williams was obviously not going to play well as the #1 wide receiver with backup QBs throwing to him. Now back to his role as #2, and playing with Tony Romo, Williams is regaining some fantasy value. He'll likely a viable FLEX option for the rest of the season, as long as Dez Bryant and Romo remain healthy.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN)

52% Owned On Fleaflicker

Ownership has fallen for Kendall Wright thanks to injuries, and there's not much need to explain why he's here. The former first rounder has great talent and has been a mix of good and bad for fantasy this year, dealing with rookie QB issues along with some tough matchups. Wright's been able to play well when facing weaker corners and has his next two games against Oakland and Jacksonville, two defenses allowing over 80 yards per game to opposing WR1s.

Marquess Wilson (WR, CHI)

8% Owned on Fleaflicker

A lot of people don't remember this but Marquess Wilson was a hyped receiver at one point for the Bears. Expected to man the slot between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery in 2014, coaches in Chicago were really looking forward to seeing him. Side note - my personal audition for RotoBaller was a dynasty article about Marquess Wilson before the 2014 season. Anyways, with Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal missing, Wilson took advantage of the opportunity and put up 102 yards on four catches. His seven targets were the most on the team, which bodes well for him, and that stat line against a difficult Broncos matchup is especially nice to see.

His next game comes on a short week against the far easier Packers defense that's allowed 86 yards per game to #1 WRs. That short week makes it somewhat realistic that Alshon Jeffery might not be ready to play - so if that's the case, Wilson looks like a good player to own. His rest of season schedule is very favorable as well, in case Alshon's out any longer.

Devin Funchess (WR, CAR)

16% Owned on Fleaflicker

It seems like Devin Funchess' role in this offense is quietly growing, and he's even earning some praise from Ron Rivera being called Kelvin Benjamin-esque on his big second half catches against the Redskins. I actually liked Funchess as a prospect and really do imagine him being NFL capable with some time, since not all rookies hit the ground running (I say while pouring a beer out for Devin Smith). Funchess is a low priority waiver wire add, but offers a lot of upside as another potential big target for Cam Newton not named Greg Olsen.

Devin Funchess is rarely affected by the contact he faces, and here he easily keeps running and uses his size to lean into the DBs path and box him out of the balls trajectory.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

11% Owned on Fleaflicker

Crowder had his absolute worst week since becoming a starter for the Redskins, but you shouldn't expect that to be the norm. A solid every week FLEX in PPR leagues, I'm still advocating having him on your bench.

Other Wide Receiver Options: 

• SEA WR Tyler Lockett - 15% owned - Lockett's been on this list plenty of times because he should have been the most valuable WR on the Seahawks this season, but it just hasn't happened. However, Baldwin finished the 49ers game with an ankle injury while already suffering from a toe injury. Perhaps Lockett could see more time with his two touchdown performance.
• ATL WR Leonard Hankerson - 15% owned - Hankerson returned with nearly 40 yards and a touchdown, but he's far from every week startable and projects mostly as a low-end FLEX right now with a sluggish Falcons offense.
• BAL WR Kamar Aiken - 36% owned - Aiken is regularly appearing on this list every week, and was expected to make another appearance on the upper portion of wide receivers, but a torn ACL for Joe Flacco changes things. He's likely just a bench depth player now, unless Matt Schaub goes vintage on us.
• HOU WR Nate Washington - 38% owned - Washington has had two big games the last two times he's seen the field with Brian Hoyer. Can that continue? Probably not. But stranger things can happen. Riley Cooper was a WR2 once.
• NYG WR Dwayne Harris - 14% owned - The Giants seem to be committed to getting Harris involved in the passing game, even if it means ignoring Odell Beckham somewhat to do so.
• ARI WR J.J. Nelson - 1% owned - A role player, as a deep threat in an offense that loves to go deep, Nelson has volatile weekly value that's really dependent on the health of the wide receivers in front of him. If Michael Floyd or John Brown miss time, Nelson's the next man up and has shown the potential to make big plays.

More Options: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Bryan Walters, Albert Wilson, Nelson Agholor, Lance Moore, Ted Ginn, Justin Hardy, Kenny Stills, Josh Huff, Cody Latimer

Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, TB)

47% Owned on Fleaflicker

An every week fixture as we wait for his return, there still is no other tight end showing more value on the waivers. That's just the sad state of TE waivers.

Crockett Gillmore (TE, BAL)

26% Owned on Fleaflicker

Gilmore's coming off two double digit games in a row, both against two defenses bad at defending tight ends. Unfortunately, the Browns are not that weak at covering tight ends and will be Gillmore's next opponent. On top of that, Joe Flacco is out for the year and Matt Schaub is in. Well actually, maybe that's not so bad - Schaub has made multiple tight ends valuable throughout his career. At a position that lives off of desperation, Crockett is a desperate add.

Eric Ebron (TE, DET)

44% Owned on Fleaflicker

Eric Ebron failed to do anything against a Raiders defense that has been horrendous against the position, likely leading to a lot of angry owners. However, bad games happen to every player and Ebron is still, as it is, one of the highest upside tight ends generally left on the waivers.

Brent Celek (TE, PHI)

7% Owned on Fleaflicker

Zach Ertz might be missing this Thursday, leaving Celek as the starting tight end for a Mark Sanchez offense. There aren't a lot of great targets on the Eagles right now, and Celek already showed a productive outing with the backup QB. Detroit has been just about average this season against tight ends in yardage, and amongst the top 10 in most fantasy points allowed to them. Celek is a streaming option this week.

Other Tight End Options: 

• MIN TE Kyle Rudolph - 41% owned - Rudolph just had his yearly random blow up game. Rudolph's been used more as a blocker than receiver this season, and it's unlikely this momentum really continues. But, if you're desperate...
• CHI TE Zach Miller - 10% owned - Miller didn't put up a lot of points against a strong Denver defense, but few players have. He's still been weirdly productive enough for deep leagues.
• DEN TE Vernon Davis - 43% owned - A changing of the guard at QB led to Vernon Davis having a 60 yard day. This is a position that screams for desperate adds, so why not? Davis had the second most targets on the team.

More Options: Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Darren Fells, Garrett Celek, Vance McDonald

Week 12 Defense (D/ST) Waiver Wire Pickups

New York Giants

40% Owned on Fleaflicker

Kirk Cousins has never had a game with more than one touchdown and less than two interceptions against the New York Giants. The Giants are also coming off a bye week, giving them ample time to rest up, get prepared for Cousins, and continue obliterating him like every other past matchup. The Giants present a good streaming option for Week 12, if history repeats.

Pittsburgh Steelers

41% Owned on Fleaflicker

After starting off the season looking like they would be one of the worst defenses of the year, the Steelers have managed to become the 11th best defense in DVOA so far. With a poweful run defense (ranked 3rd) and an average pass defense (ranked 16th), the Steelers seem like they're the right team to match up with the Seahawks. With solid pass rushing talent from rookie Bud Dupree and Cameron Heyward, it seems like a good chance for some sacks and potentially interceptions - the Seahawks lack the talent necessary to take advantage of the Steelers' weak corners. It's a risky stream, but looking like one of the better available options.

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