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Can you believe it? We are less than one week away from Opening Day when Jon Lester and the Chicago Cubs square off with the Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals. These two storied franchises are poised to write the opening chapter in a new rivalry on national television. The young upstarts, playing without their future face of the franchise in Kris Bryant, challenge the long-time model of consistency, the gold standard of the National League. Can you feel the excitement, the electricity in the air?
It's the most agonizing time of the year to be a fantasy baseball owner. You've already drafted your team and between injuries, demotions, and hot spring performances, you're more nervous than painfully awkward Rob Lowe when it comes to making roster decisions.
Don't worry, the latest installment of the RotoBaller Stock Watch is here to help. Here is a look at five hitters and pitchers whose fantasy stock is on the rise along with five who are on the decline as we head into Opening Day.
Five Up
Carlos Rodon SP Chicago Sox
I know, he's not in the rotation right now, but trust me fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. If you've watched Rodon at all this spring, your eyes aren't deceiving you. He's really, really good. Facing a full MLB quality Kansas City Royals lineup in his final spring start last week, Rodon punched out nine over four innings of work. He finished the spring with 19 strikeouts and just three walks over 13 innings before being assigned to Triple-A Charlotte earlier this week.
A pair of spots in the White Sox rotation are currently occupied by John Danks and Hector Noesi. If you look up the definition of stalwart in the dictionary, you certainly won't find their pictures there. Assuming one of the legs on the wobbly chairs supporting Danks and Noesi breaks sooner rather than later, fantasy owners should expect Rodon to ascend to the big leagues no later than the end of May. He's worth the stash, even in shallow formats because he's one of the few pitching prospects in baseball who should come up and contribute meaningfully right away.
Bryce Harper OF Washington Nationals
He good. After teeing off with a monster moonshot off Jacob deGrom, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, Harper followed it up with another mammoth blast on Sunday. He is now hitting .278/.458/.583 with three home runs and 12 walks this spring. Just saying. Check out his HR versus deGrom:
The biggest criticism of Harper, who at 22-years-old is still younger than Kris Bryant, has been related to his inability to stay healthy. He's missed significant time in each of the past two years due to injuries, suffered as a result of his all-out, max-effort playing style. Harper is still the same guy attitude-wise, but his comments this spring are reason for optimism. He's indicated he's learned a valuable lesson as a result of all of the injury problems he's dealt with, and is more committed to staying healthy, and more importantly is worrying less about the noise from critics about his performance at the plate.
When you read about the positive changes Harper has made in his approach both mentally and physically to keep himself on the field, you have to be encouraged. If you've watched what he has done this spring, it's hard not to believe that this may finally be the year it all comes together for the burgeoning superstar. It's nearly impossible to imagine his stock inflating anymore than it already is, but now might be your best opportunity to acquire him. A monster season could be coming, don't rule it out.
Carlos Martinez SP St. Louis Cardinals
I am not sure how this is actually going to shake out given Martinez's struggles with control (3.44 BB/9) and left-handed batters (.296/.384/.445) in his young career, but given his immense potential and off the charts arsenal, don't rule out the possibility of him having success in the St. Louis starting rotation immediately. The 23-year-old fire baller will open the season as the Redbirds fifth starter. How long he keeps the gig is anyone's guess.
Veteran Jamie Garcia is the wildcard right now, despite the fact that he will start the season on the disabled list. If he proves successful in his comeback from shoulder problems, which have derailed his promising career, he could bump a struggling Martinez from the rotation mid-season. The same could be said for Marco Gonzalez, the Cardinals first round pick in 2013, who debuted last season. Gonzalez, who will start the year at Triple-A, is the favorite to step into the rotation long-term, and likely isn't coming out once he secures a spot.
Martinez is going to have to pitch well in order to avoid being banished to the pen. All we know right now is that he has the talent to make it happen, so it will be about making adjustments from here on out. The upside is off the charts if he figures it all out.
Blake Swihart C Boston Red Sox
The big news in Red Sox nation was supposed to be Edward Mujica being named the interim closer with Koji Uehara out. That all changed when starting catcher Christian Vazquez's elbow injury forced him to the disabled list and possibly surgery. Boston will try to patch up the roster with the likes of Humberto Quintero and Sandy Leon behind starter Ryan Hanigan, but long-term, especially if the Sox want to win the AL East this season, the most intriguing option from a fantasy standpoint is Swihart.
He is likely to start the year 45.7 miles away from Fenway down in Triple-A Pawtucket, but Swihart, who batted .300/.353/.487 with 12 home runs in Double-A last season, is a rare bird. A switch-hitting catcher, with offensive upside is rare in the game today, which makes Swihart a must-own commodity in deeper leagues. He may spend half the season in the minors, but if/when he comes up, you're going to want him on your fantasy roster.
Jason Hammel SP Chicago Cubs
You can't let the kids steal the entire spotlight in the Windy City. Everyone is quick to forget how well Hammel pitched for the Cubs (2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with 104 strikeouts in 108 innings) before he was dealt to Oakland mid-season. After re-signing with Chicago as a free agent this offseason, Hammel has dominated this spring, posting 17 strikeouts and just three walks in 20 innings of work. Fantasy owners in deeper leagues need to get on board with Hammel as a potential anchor for the back-end of their rotations.
Five Down
Javier Baez 2B/SS Chicago Cubs
The demotion to Triple-A is a crushing blow to Baez's short-term value in redraft leagues. It may actually end up being a positive for his long-term value in dynasty leagues if it results in a much-needed change in approach at the plate. The most obvious reason being if he doesn't show any improvement down on the farm then the Cubs have little incentive to call him back up anytime soon.
Baez hit .169/.227/.324 in a 52-game stint with the Cubs late last season, striking out in an astounding 41% of his plate appearances. We all envisioned a scenario in which Baez would struggle to make contact, but as Chris Mitchell of FanGraphs pointed out, in the PITCHf/x era, which began in 2007, no player has ever posted a worse contact rate than the 59% mark Baez put up last season.
After displaying little to no improvement in Winter Ball, Baez stumbled out of the gate in spring training, finishing with a .173 average and 20 strikeouts in 52 at bats this spring. He's only 22 years old so don't panic just yet. Keep an eye on how Baez performs in Triple-A, not just if he's striking out less, but if he's swinging less overall, and at better pitches, preferably strikes.
It's a big boost for a guy like Arismendy Alcantara, who all of a sudden may be looking at everyday playing time to start the year before shifting into a utility role if/when both Baez, Bryant and Addison Russell get the call this season.
Dellin Betances RP New York Yankees
The sky isn't falling just yet, but the velocity being down is a concern. Betances will still be a reliable fantasy commodity, but a downturn in velocity can be an indication that there is an injury lurking. Betances is older than you think at 27-years-old, and he racked up 641 innings in the minors, mostly as a starter, prior to his breakout campaign last year.
He told the New York Post last weekend that his velocity is nowhere near where it should be. He's reportedly throwing between 92 and 94 mph, which is still solid, but he averaged over 97 mph on his fastball last season. In the event that Betances doesn't get back on track the Yankees could turn to free agent acquisition Andrew Miller to close this season. It's something to keep an eye on as we creep towards the start of the regular season. Thus far, it's definitely impacted Betances fantasy stock in a negative way.
Daniel Murphy 2B New York Mets
Murphy and J.J. Hardy of Baltimore are the two most significant injuries on the infield from this past week and both will have major fantasy implications. Murphy, who has just 17 at bats under his belt this spring, is in danger of missing Opening Day with a hamstring injury, while Hardy is likely to start the year on the disabled list due to a strained shoulder.
There should be an abundance of young middle infielders available to fill the gap temporarily on your roster. Options at the keystone include Devon Travis and Micah Johnson, just to name a few, while Jose Ramirez and Marcus Semien may be available to plug in at shortstop.
Danny Salazar SP Cleveland Indians
It wasn't long after I wrote about Zach McAllister in this space last week that he was named to the Indians starting rotation. That wasn't the big news in Cleveland. It was that Salazar was heading to Triple-A. This is a huge blow to Salazar's stock. If both McAllister and T.J. House pitch the way they have this spring once the games start to count, it will be hard to envision a scenario in which Salazar gets a rotation spot anytime soon. Salazar's stuff is electric, but unless you play in an extremely deep format, it's difficult to keep him stashed on your bench in redraft leagues. There are better options out there for now.
Andrew Heaney SP Los Angeles Angels
At what point do we start to question whether or not Heaney is going to be a successful starter in the big leagues? I know it's too early to completely bail on such a young pitcher, but the results have been just awful dating back to last season with Miami.
Everyone just assumed he would win the fifth spot in the rotation for the Angels when they shipped out veteran Howie Kendrick to acquire him this offseason, but he's been downright putrid this spring, giving up 19 runs on 29 hits in 19 innings. Frankly, I don't even care if he gets named to the rotation, there is no way I am touching Heaney in any fantasy format right now.
Questions, comments, thoughts? Feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @GeorgeBissell
