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Thunder Dan Palyo's top NBA prop bets for 11/7/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
We get another dose of Emirates Cup action in the Association tonight, and 11 total games are on the docket. I love Friday slates for betting props as there is never a shortage of markets to attack, and this slate is no different!
I only get to write this piece once a week, so bear with me if I go a little overboard and toss out a few more props today than my partner, Keith Eyster, does on Mondays and Wednesdays. I like playing the volume game, and I have a hard time paring my bets down to single digits when we have big slates like this one. Today, we have a lot of big man props as there are some centers in very good matchups tonight with very attainable numbers.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Friday, November 7th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed as well, but always shop around, as those odds change throughout the day as bets come in. Let's get to the picks!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Early-season NBA player props offer bettors a prime opportunity to get ahead of oddsmakers by capitalizing on new trends, unexpected rotations, and shifts in play style from last season. With teams still settling into their identities, sharp bettors can often find mispriced lines before the markets adjust.
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Josh Giddey over 17.5 Rebounds and Assists
- Jarrett Allen over 12.5 Points
- Kel'el Ware over 13.5 Points (-106 FD)
- Daniel Gafford over 11.5 Points
- Cole Anthony over 13.5 Points and Assists
- Nicolas Claxton over 25.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Jock Landale over 9.5 Points
- Jamal Shead over 9.5 Points and Assists
Josh Giddey over 17.5 Rebounds and Assists (-114 FD)
The young Bulls point guard is off to an incredible start this season, and Chicago is surprising everyone with a 6-1 record through the first two weeks. It's been a very balanced effort from the Bulls in terms of scoring, but the catalyst behind their major offensive improvement has been the playmaking of Giddey, who enters tonight averaging 9.1 assists per contest.
Bulls players in franchise history with back-to-back triple-double games:
Josh Giddey
Michael JordanThat's the list. pic.twitter.com/wMFQXBKQyv
— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) November 5, 2025
Giddey has an elite 39.8 assist rate, but also rebounds like a big man with a 14% rebounding rate that trails only Nikola Vucevic and backup center Jalen Smith on the team. He's averaging 10.0 boards per contest this year and has been a triple-double threat nightly.
His points and rebounds prop remains too low for his rates this season. He's gone over 17.5 in five straight games and way over in his last two (23 and 27). I love this game for stats tonight as Chicago faces Milwaukee as four-point underdogs on the road with a massive 240.5 total. The Bucks have not been very good defensively this season, ranking 22nd in defensive rating, and I expect this one to live up to the billing of a close, high-scoring contest. That should mean a full allotment of minutes for Giddey and a big stat line tonight.
Jarrett Allen over 12.5 Points (-121 DK)
The Cavs' big man has been getting it going offensively of late, scoring 20, 16, and 24 points in his last three games. He gets a fantastic matchup tonight against the Wizards, who have allowed the second-most points to opposing centers this season. The last five big men to face Washington have cruised over this total, and I expect Allen to do the same tonight.
Darius Garland is back in the lineup for the Cavs, giving Allen yet another pick-and-roll partner who can feed him easy lobs for dunks. He's one of the most efficient big men in the NBA, shooting 70% from the floor last year. He only needs five or six buckets to cross this line and to knock down a few free throws. I think he smashes this number.
Kel'el Ware over 13.5 Points (-106 FD)
Ware will get the start for the Heat tonight at center with Bam Adebayo out of the lineup. He's had an up-and-down season, in terms of playing time, but he's fully capable of putting up points and boards at a high rate per minute.
Ware gets the Hornets tonight, who have allowed the third-most points to centers this season. He already faced them once, scoring 14 points in the first matchup in 26 minutes off the bench. He should play closer to 30 minutes tonight in a game that is ticketed with a massive 243.5 total. Both these teams play at a top-5 pace, so we should see plenty of extra possessions and scoring opportunities for all players involved in this one.
Daniel Gafford over 11.5 Points (-115 Fanatics)
Yes, we have another big man points prop on the card here with Gafford against Memphis! Dereck Lively II remains out, and Anthony Davis is doubtful for tonight's game, so expect Gafford to start at center and play somewhere around 24-25 minutes, which is where he's been the last two games.
He scored 14 and 15 points in those games and, like Jarrett Allen, is known as one of the most efficient low-post big men in the game. With Dallas needing buckets badly on offense, I would expect them to feed Gafford again while he's out there and for him to cruise over this number fairly easily, given his 20% usage last game.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Cole Anthony over 13.5 Points and Assists (-120 FD)
I am a sucker for bench props and sixth-man types like Anthony. He's been thrust into this role so far this season due to the injury to Kevin Porter Jr., with Ryan Rollins taking over as the starting point guard and Anthony serving as the instant offense and primary ball-handler with the second unit.
Anthony has gone over this number in all but two games this season. One of those games he finished right at 13, and the other one he was ejected from after two technical fouls after just 13 minutes.
He's averaging over 16 points and assists per game this season, and I expect him to continue to see around 22-24 minutes tonight. That's enough court time for him to hit this mark, given his high usage and assist rates.
Nicolas Claxton over 25.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-122 DK)
The Nets are off to a brutal start, which we expected based on their very clear intentions of rebuilding this season. However, one of the bright spots for Brooklyn so far has been the play of starting center Nic Claxton.
Nic Claxton remains aggressive and efficient on drives. pic.twitter.com/KeFtgl9Uek
— Erik Slater (@erikslater_) November 6, 2025
Claxton has mainly been a rebounder and shot blocker during his time in the league, but is showing off an emerging offensive game this season. He's averaging 18.5 points per game over his last four games, and with Cam Thomas out tonight, there's a lot of usage for the remaining Brooklyn players to soak up.
If you want to bet his points prop, I am all for it, but the other development in Brooklyn has been Claxton's passing, and I want to take advantage of that, too. The big man has handed out 18 assists over his last three games and now averages 3.8 dimes per contest this season.
He's cleared this PRA mark by four or more stats in the last four games, so as long as we continue to see him this involved in the offense, I think he can easily clear this bar again tonight against the Pistons.
Jock Landale over 9.5 Points (-104 FD)
Landale has hit this number in four straight games and is now averaging 11 points per game on the season. Dallas happens to allow the most points to opposing centers this season, making this a matchup that is too good to pass up!
Zach Edey is set to return soon, but Landale still has a few more games left as the starting center. He's been one of the more reliable Memphis starters in terms of his production lately, and I am happy to take the over here on such a low number and great matchup.
Jamal Shead over 9.5 Points and Assists (-125 Fanatics)
My final prop is another high-usage and high-assist player (like Anthony) off the bench. Shead has been playing very well in his sixth-man role, despite seeing only around 17 minutes per night. He's sporting a 20% usage rate and has at least four or more assists in every game this season.
His assists are juiced at over 3.5, so I am pivoting to his points and assists prop, which he has hit in seven of eight games this season, including a 15 points/assists performance against Atlanta back in the opener.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
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Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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