RADIO
Michael's top running back fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and potential league-winners for 2025. His favorite RB fantasy football draft values with upside.
Breakouts are what win fantasy football championships. Those players that you get in the middle and late rounds of your drafts who turn into one of the best players at their position are what win leagues. It is why I believe you should be chasing players with that kind of upside with most of your picks.
Those safe floor, low upside picks hold you back. I wrote an article calling it the biggest mistake fantasy players can make last season. The good thing with running backs this year is that the middle rounds are littered with breakout options. There are upside shots you can take late as well.
Finding a breakout back or two will completely transform your lineup and make you a strong championship contender. The key is finding them!
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Middle-Round Running Back Breakout Candidates
TreVeyon Henderson is my favorite breakout pick this season. I believe he has all the traits that lead to a fantasy breakout. He is elusive and has great burst and high-end speed. That should lead to a lot of big plays, as we have already seen in the preseason. He is a great pass blocker, which will get him on the field on passing downs, and a good receiver, so he should be able to rack up PPR points on those snaps. And lastly, he has a head coach whose teams have traditionally taken a run-heavy approach. He brings RB1 upside at a low-end RB2 cost, although he is gaining steam.
Two rookies I am EXTREMELY high on heading into the season! pic.twitter.com/A8B3LKwLbB
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 12, 2025
D'Andre Swift has averaged 1,304 scrimmage yards the last two seasons. Now he gets a new offensive line and Ben Johnson as his playcaller. Each year Johnson was in Detroit, his offense finished top two in running back goal-line carries and rushing touchdowns. He also heavily features the backfield in the passing game. Swift had a 70-target season under Johnson in Detroit. Swift already brought a safe floor, but he now brings breakout upside in one of the best systems for a fantasy back. He has RB1 upside at a low-end RB2 price.
Everyone loves a league winner! I have 5 candidates for you! pic.twitter.com/qkatoG30pT
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 11, 2025
Omarion Hampton is quickly moving out of the middle round range and into the early, but he certainly brings breakout upside. He is a huge back that can handle a large workload right away and is a weapon out of the backfield as a receiver. The Chargers are going to run a bunch. Last year was Jim Harbaugh’s first time that his team did not finish top 10 in the NFL in rushing attempts. They finished 11th. With Najee Harris missing a lot of camp and up in the air to start the season, Hampton has a clear runway to completely take over this backfield.
Kenneth Walker III has been a breakout candidate for years. He has struggled to live up to the expectations, but a new scheme may finally allow him to have that monster season we have been chasing. The Seahawks' new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, runs a heavy outside zone run scheme. That should allow the explosive Walker to properly utilize his speed and pick up lots of chunk plays. Last season, while Kubiak was with the Saints, they ran outside zone at the third-highest rate in the NFL, while Seattle was 22nd. Seattle will also likely run more, as they have been in the bottom five in run play percent each of the last two years. Walker could also be used more in the passing attack. It is now or never, but the breakout upside is there.
Isiah Pacheco had top-five upside last year. Then he fractured his fibula, missed nine games, and clearly wasn’t himself when he returned. He himself said he wasn’t at his usual playing weight. Plus, a fractured fibula takes time for a player to return to form. It took Tony Pollard nearly a year before he looked like himself again. Due to that down performance, Pacheco is sliding to nearly RB3 territory. All reports out of Chiefs camp are that he looks like his old self. It was a very small sample size of two games, but before getting hurt, he was on a 17-game pace for 1,600 total yards, 60 catches, and nine touchdowns. Tied to a good offense, he brings lots of upside at a very reduced price.
Isiah Pacheco always knows how to get the fans riled up at camp 😂 this time with a TD!#chiefskingdom @KCTV5 pic.twitter.com/rAS1aqthBz
— Katie Maher (@KatieKCTV5) August 2, 2025
R.J. Harvey fell into an ideal landing spot with Sean Payton and the Broncos. This scheme takes advantage of his skill set as both an outside runner and a strong receiving weapon. Since 2011, Payton’s lead RB has averaged 81 targets per season. That number has grown to 87 per season since 2017. He was the clear lead back in the first preseason game. In my NFL Draft scouting series, I wrote that his ceiling is a Bucky Irving-type breakout. You can get that at a low-end RB2 price in the middle rounds of drafts.
Late Round Running Back Breakout Candidates
Jaydon Blue has the right combination that I love in a late-round breakout candidate. First, he is fast, evident by his 4.37 40-yard dash time. That big-play ability is a huge factor in breakouts. He also showed himself to be a reliable receiver in college, which is very important in our PPR world. The biggest thing, though, is that he has an opportunity in this backfield as his competition is Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. Williams is the presumed starter, but he has struggled as a runner since his knee injury a couple of years ago. Last year, he averaged the fourth-fewest yards per target of all backs. The explosive Blue could steal the lead job away.
Draft Jaydon Blue this summer
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 4, 2025
Isaac Guerendo is a 49ers running back. Need I say more? You may have heard that the guy ahead of him on the depth chart, Christian McCaffrey, has missed some time in his career. For years, we have seen backup running backs succeed in fantasy when they get the chance to start in this Shanahan run system. Jordan Mason was a very viable option just last year. Guerendo also showed us he could turn opportunity into fantasy production. Guerendo averaged 17.9 fantasy PPG in the four games he played over 50 percent of the snaps. He scored 11 in each of those games. The speedy Guerendo, who ran the fastest 40 of all RBs in his draft class, could shine in this backfield if anything were to happen to CMC.
Bhayshul Tuten has burst and speed that immediately jumps off the screen. He may need some work as a pass blocker, but he certainly can be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield. In my NFL Draft scouting series, I wrote that Tuten reminded me of a lesser version of De'Von Achane. That is a player who certainly brings breakout upside.
A few of Bhayshul Tuten's touches in his first preseason game.
Love the base that Tuten runs with. He's got some spring in his step and runs with good toughness. Great finish on his TD. pic.twitter.com/JwaxgpUQsB
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 13, 2025
The other thing going for Tuten is that he will be operating in Liam Coen’s system. That led to Bucky Irving’s breakout last year. Plus, he is a pick from this regime. The other backs he is competing with are from the previous regime. Tuten has been getting run with the ones in camp as of late. His upside easily makes him worth a gamble in the later rounds of drafts.
Braelon Allen is a very talented back who is just behind another very talented back in New York. Allen, though, has received a ton of hype out of Jets camp this summer. New head coach Aaron Glenn has been vocal about the Jets using multiple backs. And his OC Tanner Engstrand also comes from Detroit, who obviously had a lot of success using multiple backs. Allen would play the David Montgomery role if there were to be a Detroit-like split. Expect the Jets to run a ton this year, and Allen will certainly have a role.
Keaton Mitchell showed in the preseason that he still has that explosiveness in his game after injuries plagued the early portion of his career. While he likely will not have standalone value, there is upside here should anything happen to Derrick Henry. I know he has been an iron man throughout his NFL career, but he is now 31 and has a ton of wear-and-tear on the tires. If he missed time, Mitchell would be the lead back in a Lamar Jackson offense. Yeah, that is worth a late-round pick.
More Later-Round Dart Throws
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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