MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 9/2/26)

September 2, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 9/2/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

We might be a week out from the start of football season, but if you think we are going to stop betting aggressively on baseball, you have another thing coming!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all use the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction site—Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee that sportsbooks charge for using their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similar to how investors trade on the stock market. But instead of beating the books, you have to win against other users—the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users aren't playing against the books, they can make more money per winning wager, and they can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

MLB NRFI Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals - No Runs First Inning (49%)

We are getting a NRFI at plus money, woo-hoo! This doesn't happen all that often, and I think there's an opportunity to take advantage here.

Grant Holmes is on the mound for Atlanta and has gone ten straight scoreless first innings. Meanwhile, the Nationals counter with reliever Brad Lord, who will basically function as an opener. Lord has shut down opponents in three of his four "starts" this season.

Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals - No Runs First Inning (55%)

The math here isn't too complicated. Both teams have relatively weak lineups and have been trending down over the final weeks of the season. When you pair that with two very solid pitchers on the mound with Eury Perez and Noah Cameron, a clean first inning here is a good bet.

Miami has been shut out in five straight games, and Perez has not allowed a first-inning run in his last 10 starts.

MLB Team Totals

Minnesota Twins over 4.5 runs (48%) vs. Detroit Tigers (Drew Anderson)

Who doesn't love a good hot streak? The Twins are suddenly red-hot at the plate and have scored 26 runs against the Tigers in the first two games of this series!

Royce goes 427 feet ‼️ pic.twitter.com/sbcyEHuNgT

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 2, 2026

Detroit starts Drew Anderson, who enters with a 4.22 ERA across seven starts. He hasn't pitched deep into games this year as a converted reliever, and there's a good chance that the Twins get into this tired bullpen fairly early again.

Boston Red Sox over 4.5 runs (46%) vs. Seattle Mariners (Bryce Miller)

Boston is a team that I love using against RHP. They've got Roman Anthony back in the lineup and the sweet-swinging Mickey Gasper to help replace Wilson Contreras's bat while he's on the IL.

The Red Sox have already plated 15 runs against the Mariners in this series, and with Bryce Miller struggling badly of late (4 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts), I think they can continue the trend today.

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Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Pitcher Prop Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:00 AM ET. Note that Novig odds are now displayed as percentages instead of American odds.

Jacob Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (47%)

We have a few lefties on this slate who I love, and Lopez is one of them. He's been making us money now for over a month, having gone for 6+ strikeouts in five of his last six games.

One of those games was a strong six-inning, six-strikeout performance against these Texas Rangers. He now gets them on the road, a much better venue for pitchers than his home ballpark in Sacramento.

Patrick Sandoval OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (47%)

Sandoval has been a great success story in Boston this season. He's returned from major arm surgery to give the Red Sox some quality innings in the second half and help plug the hole in the rotation left behind by Garrett Crochet's absence.

It's three straight starts with six or more strikeouts for Sandoval, who went for seven against the Yankees his last time out.

Patrick Sandoval against the Yankees tonight:

5.1 IP | 3 H | 1 R | 4 BB | 7 K’s

He’s allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts 💪 pic.twitter.com/cO6OEtOepS

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) August 29, 2026

The Mariners have the third-worst K% vs. LHP over the last two weeks at 28.4%, and I want to continue to attack their very K-prone lineup with solid strikeout arms.

Hayden Wesneski OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (60%)

I am really intrigued by Wesneski, who is another pitcher coming off a lost season who has been making some noise lately. He's allowed just one earned run across his last two starts, while striking out 10 batters in 10 innings. He had six strikeouts in four innings of work against Seattle in the start before that.

He'll have to be careful with walks, but this matchup with the White Sox is a pretty good one as they have a lot of free-swinging bats in that lineup. Opposing right-handed starters have gone for 5 or more strikeouts 60% of the time over Chicago's last ten games.

Andrew Painter OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (53%)

I rarely attack the Diamondbacks for K props, but I have this series as we have gotten very low numbers on Aaron Nola (4.5) and Jesus Luzardo (5.5) so far.

Nola missed his by one, but Luzardo had six strikeouts in a strong outing last night. Painter's number is even lower at 3.5, despite the fact that he's enjoyed a resurgence in his strikeout rate since returning from a stint in the minor leagues.

He has 4+ strikeouts in five of his last six, including an 8-strikeout performance against a pretty tough Cardinals lineup earlier this month.

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