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What is the biggest mistake fantasy football players make? And how can you prevent making that mistake? Michael F. Florio breaks it all down ahead of the 2024 season.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results.
Yet, I see fantasy football players making the same mistake year after year. Even some seasoned analysts and players will fall for this mistake. Why? Because on the surface, it doesn’t seem like a mistake. If anything, it looks like a sound fantasy football strategy.
Not only is it a mistake, but it is the biggest mistake a fantasy football player can make. One you surely do not want to make with your teams.
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The Biggest Mistake Fantasy Football Players Make
The biggest mistake fantasy football players make is trying to grind out small values throughout the draft. “This player is going as WR45 but he could easily finish as WR35!”
But if that is the upside a player brings, they are a bad pick. The worst mistake is taking a fantasy baseball-type approach and applying it to football. The two are completely different games.
You may be thinking, I clicked on a football article, why is this guy talking about fantasy baseball? The reason is the strategy of grinding out small wins and gaining value, such as the example used above, is a great strategy in baseball. But that is because it is a different game.
In fantasy baseball, a traditional lineup is usually at least 10 hitters and seven pitchers. But many leagues have even more starting spots and then you add in a deep bench. At that point, there were over 300 players drafted in most leagues.
In a league that deep, finding values throughout the draft will surely add up. Especially since the season is 162 games. If you can continue to grind out value throughout the draft, over a season that long, your odds of winning go up dramatically.
But in fantasy football, the season is just over 10 percent of the fantasy baseball season. Starting lineups are also much smaller. Football is a big-play game. It is a sprint, while fantasy baseball or other sports are more of a marathon.
For example, I will use my two home leagues. In my football league, a traditional good week is 120 points. In my fantasy baseball league, you have to score at least 300 for it to be considered a strong week.
The biggest play you can have in baseball is when your hitter hits a grand slam. Even with the bonus in my league, that is worth 10 fantasy points. That equates to about 3 percent. But a 60-yard touchdown catch in PPR would be over 10 percent of a weekly output for a good week in my league.
And if you are talking about the course of a 162-game season, it is barely a drop in the bucket. But I know I am confusing you with all this baseball talk. So, what does this have to do with fantasy football?
It highlights the difference between the two. If you are trying to grind value in fantasy football, it could work in the sense of making the playoffs. But if you play to win a title, you are doing yourself a disservice.
The upside is what wins championships in fantasy football. Now, I am not saying to just go highest ceiling with every pick. What I like to do is build a safe base in the first four rounds. I will not take chances early. It is why I have A.J. Brown ranked ahead of Justin Jefferson, as he is just a safer pick.
If you can build a safe core of about four players you are starting weekly if healthy, then you can start to turn your eyes to upside picks. It is how I spend the middle and later rounds of all my drafts.
That safe core gives you a safe floor to begin with. A breakout player or two to go with your safe base will elevate both your floor and ceiling, giving you one of the best teams in your league.
These players that give you small gains on their draft value seem smart. And on the surface, well it is. Any pick that outlives the cost you pay for it should be a good thing. But in a big-play, small-sample-size game like fantasy football, they hold you back.
These types of players are usually fringe starters or reserve options on your bench. They are solid injury or bye-week replacement options, but when you have to plug them in for a starter on your team, your lineup is already worse.
These players are also too good to cut, especially early on in the season, taking up valuable bench spots. That limits the amount of shots you can take on the waiver wire. Whereas if you take some upside shots and they do not work out, you will be fine cutting them.
The whole goal is to find players that break out enough to be every-week starters for your team. We do not know which of these players will break out because if we did, they would be going much earlier in the draft.
But, the more shots you can take, the higher the odds of finding a breakout player. Finding a breakout player or two greatly increases your odds of winning the league. This strategy will not always lead to a championship, but it increases your odds.
If you want to play to make the playoffs and be entertained all season, then this strategy may be too risky for you. But if you are like me and you play with the main goal being to win the league, this is how you can heighten your chances.
Why I Think This is the Biggest Mistake Fantasy Football Players Make
Why do I think this? Because for years, I was chasing those small gain values. Grabbing a WR4 who could finish as a WR3. That RB3 could volume his way to an RB2 finish. On paper, it seems like a smart and sound strategy. And having a deep team with a lot of players that outlive cost will make you feel smart.
For years, those were the teams I had. And for years, I would make the playoffs as like the fourth or fifth seed, and get bounced. My safe-floor team was good enough to be one of the best six teams in the league.
But when I was matched up against the top teams in the league, my ceiling was never high enough to beat the top teams three weeks in a row. Sure, you can get a playoff win or two. But three in a row with a safe team is tough.
During COVID-19, I went back and looked through years of my drafts and realized that despite having so many picks give me a slight return on investment, I was not winning titles. But, the teams that would find that breakout star or two were often coming out on top.
Since then, I have gone all in on this strategy switch of mine. And it has worked. I have had a lot more success and won my leagues at a higher rate. I have even had more success in the regular season as well.
No strategy is going to guarantee that you win your league yearly. But this strategy will raise your odds of finding breakout players, which raises your odds of winning -- and that is about all we can hope for in this wild game we all love so much.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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