RADIO
Ryan analyzes four fantasy football veteran options to avoid in FFPC best ball drafts. These players might offer minimal best ball impact for the 2024 season.
With training camps well underway and the first preseason game this week, we are starting to get our first looks at NFL players for the 2024 season. Based on what we see and learn over the next few weeks, many of our judgments will be confirmed or shifted in drafts still ahead. The same can be said for Best Ball contests where the high upside of players on our roster is what we are chasing.
Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is one of the top Best Ball sites around in 2024. If you have played on FFPC, you will have noticed slight nuances to its scoring system that must be considered when drafting Best Ball teams. The first scoring quirk to consider is that quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing instead of the traditional 25 yards. This means pocket passers get a little more of a bump compared to other Best Ball tournaments where rushing quarterbacks rule. Secondly, FFPC is a tight-end premium site. That means tight ends get 1.5 points per reception, while all other skill positions receive one point.
In this piece, I will be looking at one player at each skill position who is a veteran bust to be avoided in Best Ball drafts on FFPC. These players might not have had good seasons in past years, but chasing the upside of higher-ceiling players is a better option in 2024. For expanded Best Ball rosters, these boring, low-floor players are not ideal selections at their ADPs. For each player, I will include their current FFPC ADP as well as where they stand in RotoBaller's Best Ball rankings.
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Fantasy Football Veterans To Avoid In FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
FFPC ADP: 115.9
RotoBaller Rank: 133
The narrative around Trevor Lawrence is that he was extremely unlucky in 2023, and for the most part that is true. His receivers dropped 25 passes last year, which was the fifth most in the NFL. Lawrence was 11th in accuracy rating and eighth in deep ball accuracy rating, but his receivers' rate of separation per target was amongst the worst in the league. Lawrence did score well in efficiency metrics but managed to finish the year just 20th in fantasy points per dropback.
Can't positive regression mean those things improve this year and he can outperform his ADP of 116 on FFPC? Of course, but in Best Ball contests, we need to think about this on a higher plane. I consider it this way. Lawrence (116 ADP) and Jared Goff (113 ADP) basically go in the same spot. Last year, Goff (17.8 fantasy points per game) and Lawrence (17.3) nearly finished the year the same. Why would I rather have Goff in Best Ball? Because we are looking for massive spike weeks to win contests.
Year IIII 💪🐆 #jaguars #trevorlawrence #DUUUVAL #NFL pic.twitter.com/l6i573SQKk
— aaron berkshire (@BerkshireAaron) July 31, 2024
In 2023, Goff had seven weeks with more than 19 fantasy points. Lawrence had four, and none until Week 11. Lawrence also had two weeks under 10 fantasy points. Goff had one. Lawrence had the more consistent run (10 weeks between 11 and 18 fantasy points), but those did not win you Best Ball weeks. Goff, especially with his plethora of home games, has the potential to put up massive weeks with all of his weapons. Lawrence will certainly be good, but I want players that will win me weeks.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
FFPC ADP: 70.7
RotoBaller Rank: 59
It wasn't just injuries that derailed Aaron Jones' season in 2023, it was lack of explosiveness and burst that is going to make a full rebound hard for Jones at age 30 and entering a new team. Jones was 37th in evaded tackles, 38th in breakaway run rate, and 42nd in fantasy points per opportunity across his 11 healthy games last season. The Green Bay Packers saw enough after that season and let him walk to Minnesota, where he is ostensibly the starter, but already on shaky ground.
Sam Darnold taking some of his new weapons for a spin.
Aaron Jones' pass catching ability is fresh for this offense. #Vikings pic.twitter.com/HyJyJaYjEw— Alec Ausmus (@A_TwiceKSTP) July 24, 2024
Ready to pounce if Jones gets hurt or is ineffective is Ty Chandler. Chandler was 18th among running backs in yards per touch in 2023 and was healthy for all 17 games, allowing him to generate 123 touches as a backup. Chandler was one of the best athletes of his draft class, ranking in the 98th percentile in 40-yard dash time and 92nd percentile in speed score. These are areas where Jones failed last season, so Chandler should have plenty of opportunities.
It's this perceived lack of opportunities that has me down on Jones. His snap share fell under 50% for the first time since 2018 last season, which directly affected his rushing yards per game (59.6 last year). At the range he is going in FFPC Best Ball drafts, I would much rather go for the upside ceiling of Kenneth Walker III or the massive volume of Zamir White.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
FFPC ADP: 48.2
RotoBaller Rank: 32
Stefon Diggs had a strange year in his last season in Buffalo. Despite ranking sixth in targets, ninth in target share, 11th in air yards, and first overall in route participation, Diggs was 13th in fantasy points for the season. Part of the slight disconnect last year was that Diggs was eighth overall in unrealized air yards (869 yards) due to an uncharacteristically low 88.4% true catch rate (58th among wide receivers) and 94.9 quarterback rating on his targets (47th) at the position.
Six drops plus less-than-ideal accuracy from Josh Allen meant Diggs only averaged 13 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring. A salary standoff and some discontent within the team caused Buffalo to ship Diggs to the Houston Texans this offseason. Now, he is part of a three-headed receiving monster with no clear indication of where each player is in the pecking order.
Diggs joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell (and Dalton Schultz, for that matter) among one of the best receiving groups in the league. But at almost 31 years old, are we sure Diggs is the best option for C.J. Stroud? Nico Collins just got the bag this offseason. Tank Dell was a top 15 wide receiver in yards per route run. Dalton Schultz was seventh at the position in total air yards. At the right ADP, I will happily take Diggs and bet on the talent and the Houston passing game. But there are too many questions for me to buy in at a third- or fourth-round price tag.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
FFPC ADP: 87.2
RotoBaller Rank: 143
Last season was tough for Pat Freiermuth (and the entire Pittsburgh Steelers passing game). Freiermuth missed five games with an injury and was largely an afterthought when he was on the field. His 13.9% target share was just 21st among tight ends and he was 32nd in yards per target. Much of that was the product of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky playing like they are Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, but there is not a lot of confidence for Freiermuth even with two new quarterbacks arriving in the Steel City.
Justin Fields putting the ball into the bread basket for Pat Freiermuth who was double covered. 🔥🔥🔥pic.twitter.com/sQS3fdfXDn
— 𝓙𝓾𝓼𝓽𝓱𝓲𝓶 𝓕𝓲𝓮𝓵𝓭𝓼 ¹ 🐐 (@TrolledByFields) July 29, 2024
Last season, the Steelers targeted their tight ends just 93 times, the fifth-lowest number in the league. Presumably, the hiring of Arthur Smith (and his 174 targets to tight ends with Atlanta last season) changes the prognosis of tight-end involvement this year. But what it doesn't do is change the fact that Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are the quarterbacks.
The Bears were 18th in tight-end targets last season and the Broncos were 31st. Fields was 33rd in clean pocket accuracy rating and Wilson was 19th. Even with a massive volume increase for Freiermuth due to better health and a better offensive scheme, I am much more inclined to agree with our low ranking of him in Best Ball contests. Give me Brock Bowers and Dallas Goedert at the same FFPC range all day long in those contests.
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