Searching For Steals In 2024 Fantasy Baseball: SB/PA Analysis

March 9, 2024

Jarod Rupp looks past the later rounds to find potential stolen bases in players that may have been overlooked in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts, but have plenty of SB upside if given the opportunity.

So far this offseason, we've taken a look at hitters who improved their walk rates the most and those batters who increased their sweet spot% the most, amongst other articles. This particular article will take yet another slice of the data to see what there is to see.

I wanted to take a look at some players who could contribute double-digit steals even at their current playing time projections, but if thrust into more of an expanded role, they could see their stolen base totals increase dramatically. These players are being drafted outside the top 300, so they aren't necessarily relevant now, but could be if something were to happen to a starter. If you are looking for values for steals at the end of standard drafts, we've got another article for that.

This list is comprised of players who had one of the higher stolen base-per-plate appearance ratios in 2023. Because it is per plate appearance, you are taking into consideration whether the base runner got on via a hit, walk, or error, so it is a good representation of how likely they are to steal a base once they get on. Keep in mind that stolen bases put runners into scoring position, so these players could end up scoring more runs than expected as well.

Highest SB/PA Ratio in 2023

I tried to keep the below table concise, but some fairly irrelevant players were left in for context. The players we'll be talking about below are highlighted in blue.

Projected Starters

Jose Caballero, Tampa Bay Rays, SS

Although the Rays recently acquired Amed Rosario and Taylor Walls will be healthy at some point, for now, Jose Caballero is projected to be the Rays shortstop come Opening Day. With playing time will come stolen bases for the fleet-footed runner. Last season, Caballero swiped 26 bags in just 280 plate appearances. He stole five more in Triple-A in just 40 PA.

Right now, he's projected for 22 SB in 297 PA, so he could be an asset out of the gate, but if he's able to somehow stick at SS for the entire season, he'll prove even more valuable. Supposedly, Caballero has been working on pulling the ball more this spring in hopes of generating more power. He's already got some good plate discipline numbers: 78.6% Contact%, 9.1% SwStr%, 31.2% O-Swing, 10.0% BB%, and .343 OBP in 2023. All are better than average, which could help him hang onto the job longer than expected.

Johan Rojas, Philadelphia Phillies, OF

Johan Rojas had a surprising impact on offense in his 59-game debut last season, but struggled mightily at the plate in the playoffs. His defense is superb, but despite his performance during the regular season, there's still a question whether or not he can hit enough to stay in the lineup.

As it stands now, Roster Resource projects Johan Rojas as the starting center fielder for the Phillies. Still, the Phillies also just recently signed veteran Whit Merrifield and they have Cristian Pache as well, who is known for his defense and whose bat has come around during his time in Philly.

Rojas is projected for 21 steals in 2024, but in just 318 plate appearances. If he can win the CF job in the spring and hold onto it for the entirety of the season, the stolen base total would come in closer to 40.

Projected Bench Players

Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Orioles, SS

Jorge Mateo stole 35 bags in 2022 over 533 PA, and with stolen bases up across the league last season, Mateo stole nearly the same amount (32) in almost 200 fewer PA (350) in 2023.

The 28-year-old's hitting has been less than stellar, with a Baseball Savant page that shows lots of blue. His fielding has been good at times, which can help keep him in the lineup. Of course, his speed can get him into scoring position, which is why the Orioles decided to keep him in the offseason.

They're trying to find ways to get him in the lineup, so to add to his versatility, he was taking reps at second base over the winter. During the spring, he's been logging reps in the outfield. He can also be a veteran presence on a team that has a lot of young talent. Projections are calling for around 16 stolen bases in 2024 over 219 PA.

Maybe Jackson Holliday isn't ready for the bigs yet, maybe Jordan Westburg isn't the answer at second base (or third), or maybe Anthony Santander needs a day off. Maybe there's an injury. There are multiple paths to more playing time for Mateo, which means more stolen bases.

Dairon Blanco, Kansas City Royals, OF

We've gone from fast, to faster, to fastest now with Dairon Blanco's 100th percentile sprint speed. As with Mateo, he doesn't have an everyday starting role, but he is projected to be in a platoon with MJ Melendez, per Roster Resource. That at least provides a clear path to plate appearances.

His first PA with the Royals in 2023 didn't come until June 12. Over the course of the season, he hit .258 (which was actually better than the league average of .248) and posted an OBP of .324 (.320 league average) with a wOBA of .333 (.318 league average) in 138 PA. What was he doing before June 12? Stealing bases at Triple-A, of course!

The speedster stole 47 bags in 208 PA at Triple-A, with a .347 AVG and .444 OBP to boot. So between Triple-A and Kansas City, Blanco stole 71 bases in 346 PA. To put it in perspective, it took Ronald Acuna Jr. 735 PA to steal 73 bases last year. Could you imagine what Blanco could do with regular playing time? I know, I know, Blanco is no Ronald Acuna Jr., but why couldn't he be Esteury Ruiz?

Sure the sample size was smaller for Blanco, but I think you get the point. Even if Blanco regressed some, he'd probably still have better numbers in most of these categories than Ruiz. And if he got the same number of PA as Ruiz did last year (497), you're talking about a player who could feasibly snag 85 bases or more.

For what it's worth, Blanco played well in winter ball as well. As of this writing, he is 4-for-12 (.333) in Cactus League action so far this spring.

Maikel García, Dairon Blanco, and other Royals star in winter leagues https://t.co/o8db7K8Zdh

— Royals Review (@royalsreview) February 1, 2024

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