Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 11: Matthew Stafford, Isiah Pacheco, and George Pickens

November 18, 2023

Kev‘s fantasy football warning signals and lineup sit ems for Week 11 (2023). Who should I start instead of these players worth benching, sitting, and avoiding?

Week 11 of the fantasy football season is underway and while we may have drafted certain players at a premium, it is okay to consider benching them despite their name value. We often hear the phrase "start your studs" and it is a tried and true method, especially earlier in the season. When injuries, tough matchups, and/or questionable team situations arise, we must adjust. Today, I'll be looking at Matthew Stafford, Isiah Pacheco, and George Pickens.

This may be difficult to stomach benching a player drafted within the top 100 for a possible free-agent acquisition, but sometimes such measures must be taken to ensure victory throughout the fantasy football season.

Here is a look at some fantasy football players who have shown warning signals recently, and you should think twice about putting them in your lineup in Week 11. Will they bounce back or continue to underperform? For any and all issues or concerns, contact @RotoSurgeon on X.

Quarterback Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?

Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

The Rams may have the Seahawks' number in head-to-head matchups under Sean McVay but this is still a difficult spot to start Matthew Stafford. The Super Bowl champion QB is coming off of a thumb injury which adds on the list of injuries he constantly plays through. While he may be cleared, the best bet is that Los Angeles attempts to keep the ball on the ground with the backfield duo of Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman who have filled Kyren Williams' role admirably since his injury.

Matthew Stafford threw the football. Spin and velocity looked normal in limited media viewing portion of practice so noting small sample size (watched individual drills with RBs and WRs). Light sprinkling of rain. Wearing soft brace/wrap around right thumb. pic.twitter.com/dJbB3Fc0XZ

— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) November 15, 2023

Stafford also has not been a fantastic fantasy quarterback this season. He is QB21 in points-per-game with just one more passing TD (8) than INTs (7). Even with Cooper Kupp back to lead the receiving room, Stafford does not run much, making his fantasy upside low.

Who To Start Instead?

Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Tennessee's pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. They rank 27th in DVOA via FTN and have declined further since dealing star safety Kevin Byard at the trade deadline. While Trevor Lawrence has struggled in fantasy this season, Week 11's matchup is as good as it can get for an offense looking to bounce back after scoring just three points last weekend against a revamped 49ers' defense.

Lawrence actually ranks just below Matthew Stafford in points-per-game at QB22 but he has a healthy set of weapons and a willingness to rush. At 5.1 yards-per-carry, Lawrence is having his best rushing season thus far but has not found the endzone yet. He scored seven touchdowns as a rusher in his first two seasons combined which makes it possible he could have a fantasy spike to end this season.

Running Back Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?

Isiah Pacheco - Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Two massive issues remain in front of Pacheco in fantasy this week. First and foremost, the Eagles' defense ranks second in rush defense by DVOA and only got stronger over the trade deadline with the addition of the aforementioned Kevin Byard. Second, the Chiefs refuse to commit to the run, especially in negative gamescripts. Kansas City has lost twice this season and in both matchups, Pacheco did not eclipse 12 touches. Meanwhile, in games won by KC, Pacheco averages 17.9 touches per game.

David Long vs. Isiah Pacheco

Rounds 1 & 2 pic.twitter.com/W0pXfzm7oA

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 16, 2023

The Chiefs are favored by two-and-a-half points at home this Monday night against Philadelphia but they do not have the matchup advantage despite beating them in the Super Bowl. Pacheco is likely subbed off the field often in favor of Jerick McKinnon who is the trusted receiving down back. We expect much more from Andy Reid's starting RB given their history of fantasy success but Pacheco is averaging just 12.9 PPG and benchable in a spot like this for better options.

Who To Start Instead?

Darrell Henderson - Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks' run defense ranks as one of the worst over the past month. The recent addition of Leonard Williams should help patch it up a tad but Sean McVay has simply dominated Pete Carroll's Cover 3 scheme since taking over as head coach of the Rams. Henderson's numbers look very poor relative to his career but he was severely limited in the most recent game against Green Bay with Brett Rypien at quarterback. Also, Henderson just returned to the NFL a month ago after being waived from the Jaguars last December.

With Kyren Williams still on injured reserve, Henderson should remain the lead back coming out of a BYE and touch the football around 15 times as he has averaged since returning to LA.

Wide Receiver Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 11?

George Pickens - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

George Pickens' target numbers drop drastically with Diontae Johnson in the Steelers' lineup this season. With Johnson active, Pickens averages 5.8 targets per game. With Johnson inactive, Pickens averages 8.3 targets per game. Not only is Johnson back in the lineup, but starting TE Pat Freiermuth is returning from injured reserve this Sunday as well.

George Pickens has failed to get to a 20% target share in each of his last three games. He's also failed to score 10+ PPR points in each of those contests.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 13, 2023

Another mitigating factor for Pickens is the matchup against Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns rank 1st against both the pass and run this season according to DVOA and the game total is one of the lowest of this season at 33 points according to Pinnacle. It is best to look elsewhere for a starting WR in fantasy.

Who To Start Instead?

Rashee Rice - Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Rice is averaging 10.8 PPG in fantasy despite never surpassing 68% of the offensive snaps in a game thus far. The rookie WR is impressing fantasy managers and likely head coach Andy Reid as well given how stingy he is with rookies (see: Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce). Not to say Rice is on par with that trio but Reid does have an odd history with talented rookies and bringing them along slowly to allow for development.

Nevertheless, Rice has played more than 60% of the snaps in back-to-back games and saw his career-high in the most recent matchup for KC. Given that they are now past the BYE, it is possible that Rice is unleashed into a full snap share allowing him to rise into further fantasy relevance. This matchup against the Eagles' 22nd-ranked pass defense is a great spot as Patrick Mahomes will be forced to throw often if the run game cannot get going especially if they play from behind against a potent Eagles roster.

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