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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for October 26 and 27, 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 8.
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. The USC meltdown has reached Chernobyl status. Floyd is back in Minneapolis. Oklahoma State has a running back who would win the Heisman Trophy if it weren't the most meaningless trophy in sports. It's a popularity contest for players on one-loss teams and it has ruined what was once the most prestigious trophy in college sports, even if Jay Berwanger did use his as a doorstop.
We only have three more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS articles. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion (coming soon). Hey, I'm not complaining. Any weekday with college football on is a gift in my book!
We are finally done with FBS vs. FCS matchups for a little while. The SEC goes cupcaking in November, but we might be free of them until then. This is the first week without one of those matchups, but several teams are off so we still "only" have 54 games this week.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 9 (10/26-27/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Syracuse is not walking into Blacksburg on a Thursday night and winning. Not a chance!
Georgia State at Georgia Southern (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nothing like a little Modern Day Hate before the weekend! We are all new to this rivalry. It started in 2014. What has happened since? Well, the Eagles went up to the Georgia Dome in the inaugural meeting, hung 69 on the Panthers, and proclaimed the Georgia Dome "Paulson Stadium North" with a banner after the game. The next year, Georgia State went down to Statesboro and handed the Eagles their worst home loss ever, and a rivalry was born.
The road team has won five of the nine meetings and the Panthers have won three in a row. Make it four. Darren Grainger makes all the difference.
Florida Atlantic (-4.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is all over the place. FAU should be better than they are. They have the talent on offense. That will make the required difference against a team like Charlotte, but they are in trouble after this unless they find some consistency on defense.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone who won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. I found most of my old articles and have the points system all the way back to 2015. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Middle Tennessee State at Liberty (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
This was the first time that Liberty had allowed more than 27 points in a game this year. It's a good thing the MTSU run defense is still a disaster or the Flames would no longer be undefeated.
Western Kentucky (-6.5) at Jacksonville State: MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 4
It was business as usual for Western Kentucky until Zion Webb took over. He carried 28 times and missed more than a quarter of the game with an injury. Logan Smothers did good enough in his absence, but the Gamecocks may finally have their quarterback. Of course, this is the third time this season that I've thought that...
Southern Mississippi at South Alabama (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
At least I'm off to a better start than last week. I truly am sad for Frank Gore Jr. He deserves so much better than the train wreck that is Southern Mississippi this year.
Florida International at Sam Houston (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
Sam Houston had their first FBS win until Keyone Jenkins ran for 23 yards on a 4th-and-18 with 1:13 remaining. They ended up dropping another overtime heartbreaker.
New Mexico State (-3.5) at UTEP: MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
The UTEP defense couldn't handle Diego Pavia in the second half.
James Madison (-3.5) at Marshall: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Rasheen Ali sitting out for the Herd brought that offense to a halt. This game was 3-2 at one point in the third quarter until the JMU offense found their footing.
Rice at Tulsa (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I didn't expect Rice to blow the Dust Devils out, but I'm not surprised either. JT Daniels is at least going to get some looks from scouts before the NFL Draft. I doubt they would have paid any attention after his disastrous tenure at West Virginia last year.
SMU (-20.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hammered this after I found out E.J. Warner wasn't going to play. As per usual, I forgot to update my picks article.
(7) Penn State at (3) Ohio State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Penn State's defense held serve until the fourth quarter. Ohio State dominated this game, but Penn State wasn't giving up anything either. This is what a playoff game should be. Dominated by the defense and the one true star player on the field (Marvin Harrison Jr.).
I see people hating on Penn State. Their offense isn't that bad. Ohio State's defense is just that good. Penn State isn't frauds. They weren't overrated. They got beat by a really good team on the road. That's it.
Central Florida at (6) Oklahoma (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
In a week full of upsets (some really shouldn't be considered upsets, but that's another story) the Sooners survived. That's about all I can say about this "performance."
(22) Air Force (-10.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Only Air Force can dominate a team and still barely cover this spread. Navy almost blew it with a two-point conversion...
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Watching this game, I thought that the Minnesota-Iowa game was on early. The Floyd game featured 12 more combined points than this slog did! It wasn't all good defense. Both offenses looked downright terrible for most of this game. Will Rogers is still a huge part of the Mississippi State offense and Woody Marks was maybe at 60% in this one. You could tell he was still really hurting.
Rutgers (-5.5) at Indiana: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. If Tom Allen isn't fired after this season, Indiana really has no interest in fielding a competitive team in the near future. In other news, Rutgers has six wins for the first time since 2014 and is bowl eligible this early in a season for the first time since they started 7-0 in 2012. That was so long ago that the Big East still existed in football (and Rutgers was in it)!
Boston College at Georgia Tech (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was going great until Boston College scored three unanswered fourth-quarter touchdowns to bury the Bees. BC finally realized that Kye Robichaux is a good back. It took them long enough!
Baylor at Cincinnati (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It was another workmanlike performance for Blake Shapen. The Bears scored two touchdowns in the span of seven seconds in the second quarter of this one.
Memphis (-6.5) at UAB: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jacob Zeno didn't clear concussion protocol, so UAB was down their starting quarterback. They still hung around until the end of the third quarter.
Western Michigan at Ohio (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats were lucky to win this game. They are limping into the Battle Of The Bricks this year, but Miami is doing so literally.
Charlotte at East Carolina (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck. I did know better. Charlotte isn't a good offense, but the Pirates are even worse.
Louisiana-Monroe at Georgia Southern (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Monroe is my Eastern Michigan this year.
Akron at Bowling Green (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Terion Stewart is a terror. Bowling Green has done a good job looking good against average or worse teams this year.
Washington State at (9) Oregon (-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duck U said F— you to my spread pick by allowing a touchdown with 46 seconds left. Thanks a lot! Oregon dominated this game, but that last touchdown allowed burned a lot of people.
(17) Tennessee at (11) Alabama (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Losing early was the best thing that could have happened to Alabama. There were people wondering if the dynasty was over. Seriously? The Tide fanned the flames with the first half they played against the Vols, but that third quarter was vintage Alabama domination. I wouldn't be surprised if they are still the best team in the SEC.
South Carolina at (20) Missouri (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Missouri was one of the few teams that made Spencer Rattler look like his Oklahoma alter-ego this year. Not only did they beat him up (every team has thanks to his awful line), but they forced him into mistakes.
North Texas at (23) Tulane (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have laid the minimum on this. Tulane dominated this game until halftime, but Chandler Rogers looked really good in that second half. I quit trying to make sense of the ups and downs of North Texas a long time ago.
Minnesota at (24) Iowa (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don't really complain about officiating much anymore, but I will here. How in the world do you get Cooper DeJean signaling a fair catch from him trying to wave teammates away from the ball?
What disgusts me most about this call is that there was no call on the field. There was no flag on the field. Hell, even P.J. Fleck wasn't asking them to look at it. Minnesota players were all still running like it was a live ball. Why? Because no whistle was blown and no one in their right mind thought that was a fair catch signal.
This is arguably the worst call of the replay era. There is no way something like this should be missed. It explicitly states in the rules that you cannot review for one thing, and then issue a penalty that wasn't called on the field with the exception of targeting. This was gross misconduct on the part of the officials. I'll take my loss because the bookies took my money. This was a total bush-league call though. It is inexcusable in a billion-dollar business.
Keep in mind that I have no stake in either team. My wife is from Minnesota, so if anything, I should side with them. I'm not taking sides. I'm more impartial than most. I just think things should be fair. This was most definitely not fair.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Illinois: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I feel as ugly about claiming his as a win as Wisconsin looked in winning it. They had no business winning this game.
Northwestern at Nebraska (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I won't say that either team really played a good game, but Nebraska was able to avoid mistakes for the last 55 minutes of the game. It seems that while no one was looking, Nebraska turned into Iowa. Solid defense, don't take risks on offense.
South Florida (-1.5) at Connecticut: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UConn played well enough to win this game, but Nay'quan Wright took over this game in the fourth quarter. USF has two electric offensive players. In the age of the transfer portal, will they be able to keep them?
Pittsburgh at Wake Forest (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a snooze fest for the first 56:58, but the final three minutes and change produced three touchdowns. Wake defense played one of their better games of the season even though Pitt dominated in yardage.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This would be true if a running back were allowed to win the Heisman Trophy anymore. Ollie Gordon is the best RB in the country and it's not really close...and he didn't even win the starting job until three games ago. Way to bury the lead, Mike Gundy!
Central Michigan (-4.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
...and the Cardinals are no longer winless against FBS teams. I can't make heads or tails of the Chippewas right now, which is not good with MACtion on the horizon.
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's Week 9 and I still haven't lost anything on the Eagles this year. That's significant progress. I was 1-11 and lost 39 points on them in 2022.
Buffalo (-6.5) at Kent State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's weird seeing Buffalo struggle offensively and not have a workhorse back. They are making it work in the MAC so far.
(8) Texas (-22.5) at Houston: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Again, I don't usually go after the officials, but they blew one here that cost Houston a chance to tie the game. In what universe is this not a first down?
The obvious difference here is that a touchdown was not taken off the board. Houston still would have had to score a touchdown from the nine to tie it up. With the way the Texas defense was playing, it's possible they would have. Texas might have come up with the stop. Who knows? But we damn sure earned the right to find out. Stacy Sneed was at least a yard past the marker and it wasn't even reviewed...
The part that really bothers me is that the officials are the news, not the players. I'm specifically talking about the game Joseph Manjack IV had. If you want to tell me Texas would have held on anyway, I'm not going to argue. It's entirely possible. I've watched enough Texas this year to know that it's possible. I've also watched enough Houston that we just expect them to choke. This was not. This was a blown call of no fault of their own.
Toledo (-2.5) at Miami (OH): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Brett Gabbert injury is so incredibly unfortunate. I feel really bad for the guy. It took him a long time just to get back on the field this year. Football is unfair sometimes. Toledo was controlling the game before Gabbert went down, but you have to think that with Gabbert in there on the last couple of drives, Miami might have pulled this out.
UTSA (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know if the Roadrunners are back or not, but Frank Harris looked healthier than he has since the first quarter of Week 1.
Hawaii (-1.5) at New Mexico: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Congratulations are in order for the Lobos, who snapped the nation's longest conference losing streak at 14 games.
Virginia at (10) North Carolina (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was the first time that a team 1-5 or worse beat a top ten team on the road since 1960. North Carolina is back, y'all! You can't really pin this one on Drake Maye. To me, the most egregious thing was the lack of involvement of Omarion Hampton in the second half. You have a lead and a good back. Use him!
(13) Mississippi (-6.5) at Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Auburn defense held up their end of the bargain. The offense is getting better, but I still think the Tigers would be better off overall if they finally settled on a quarterback. At this point, it doesn't even matter who it is. Choose the kind of offense that you want to run and go with the guy that fits. Judging by Hugh Freeze in the past, Robby Ashford should be the guy. He better fits the kind of offense that Freeze usually runs.
Texas Tech (-3.5) at BYU: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tech did ride Tahj Brooks, but it wasn't enough. Jake Strong's three interceptions were killers.
TCU at Kansas State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kansas State made the two-quarterback system work for a while last year. Can they do it again? They certainly did here.
Appalachian State (-6.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Monarchs busted another spread and pulled out the win with 48 seconds left. Believe it or not, App State isn't the team to beat in the Fun Belt anymore.
Coastal Carolina (-10.5) at Arkansas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The hook got me, just like I was afraid it would.
Colorado State at UNLV (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of the more underrated games of the weekend. Jose Pizano kicked six field goals to pull out the win against the spunky Rams.
Utah State at San Jose State (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was the first win over Utah State for the Spartans since 2008.
(2) Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This felt personal. Michigan beat on little brother as badly as they have anyone this year.
(16) Duke at (4) Florida State (-14.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was feeling good about this until Florida State poured it on once Riley Leonard couldn't walk anymore.
Army at (19) LSU (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was nice of all those fans to show up to a night practice, wasn't it?
(14) Utah at (18) USC (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The "USC is soft" whispers aren't whispers anymore. They were able to get behind this defense a little more than the last couple of meetings, but the fact remains that the Trojans lost to a Lowe's stock boy and a safety who doubles as a running back/wide receiver.
Clemson (-3.5) at Miami (FL): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cade Klubnik threw for over 300 yards, but fans will remember more the mistakes that he made. Not necessarily the ones that resulted in turnovers, but the many wrong reads that he made/didn't make that affected the outcome of drives. Emory Williams looked better in his first career start against a better defense than Klubnik did here.
Georgia State at Louisiana (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Don't bet against Darren Grainger. I'm telling you! I don't which is why I'm 6-0 picking the Panthers this year.
Nevada at San Diego State (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I didn't expect the nation's longest losing streak to stop here, nor did I expect the Aztecs to be shut out. When you watch as many games as I do, there are bound to be some snoozers, but this was one for the ages. This was the most fitting end possible for this game.
Arizona State at (5) Washington (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can't really let rain affect your game when you play your home games in Seattle. Michael Penix and company had a rough one here and are very lucky to escape with a win. Sometimes adjustments need to be made to the offense to adjust for the elements and I don't feel like the Huskies did that here. We saw Penix make mistakes that he doesn't usually make against a defense that was struggling to create takeaways.
(25) UCLA (-16.5) at Stanford: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We have probably seen the last of Dante Moore as a starter for a little while. This is what Ethan Garbers was supposed to look like at Cal a couple of years ago.
College Football Betting Season Results
Wow...good things happen when you don't start the week 1-9. I had a strong week overall at 31-23. That brings my season total back into the black at 217-213. I still have some work to do to reach my goal, but a solid week has me feeling good heading into the weekend. I should have gained some points again this week as well.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-2 (19-27) = -8
2. 12-8 (83-82) = 2
3. 10-8 (73-68) = 15
4. 5-3 (24-26) = -8
5. 3-2 (18-10) = 40
I gained a solid 26 points even with the Minnesota-Iowa officiating disaster. That puts me up 41 points on the season. My grand total is still pending, but the good news is that I have recovered all articles since 2015 when I started the points system. My record-keeping wasn't as good then as it is now, so I'm fixing it as I go along. You can find updates in the other tabs on my spreadsheet at the top.
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