Fantasy Football Second-Year Risers and Breakout Candidates: 4 Sophomores to Target and Draft in 2025

Andrew Ball's fantasy football second-year breakout candidates for the 2025 season. His potential sophomore league-winners and undervalued sleepers, including Xavier Worthy.

If at first you don't succeed, there's always Year 2. If you don't succeed in Year 2, well, the NFL may not be for you.

In the early 2000s, a breakout in the third year was the target for young players, especially wide receivers. It's not the case anymore. If players don't break out by the end of their second season, their NFL success rate plummets.

This year's pool of second-year breakout candidates has shrunk, thanks to the explosive debuts from Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers, and Bucky Irving. Below, we analyze some players who could be primed for big sophomore seasons.

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Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

The buzz out of Kansas City's offseason is a renewed interest in pushing the football down the field. It was a staple of the early Patrick Mahomes era before it shifted to short-area attempts and a dedicated rushing attack in recent seasons.

It just so happens that the Chiefs roster the man who holds the record for the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine.

2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy was not one of the rookie receivers who broke out, but he did have his moments. The former Texas Longhorn scored twice on just four opportunities in his debut, had back-to-back 11-target games in the fantasy football playoffs, and set a Super Bowl record for most receiving yards (157) by a rookie (although a large chunk of that came in garbage time).

Worthy had to grow up quickly when Kansas City's WR1, Rashee Rice, suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4. Marquise Brown was already on injured reserve. It was Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, and, eventually, DeAndre Hopkins to gobble targets.

That's where things get interesting: Rice, Brown, and Worthy didn't play a single snap together last season. Throw in Kelce, and there are suddenly several suitable options for Mahomes.

But Worthy and Rice are not remotely the same type of receiver. Rice dominates in the short and intermediate areas of the field and will be more of a hindrance to Kelce than Worthy. In the three full games Rice and Worthy shared the field, Kelce saw four, three, and five targets. That was three of his five lowest marks for the season.

Worthy's foe, if you will, is Brown. Hollywood was active for two regular-season games due to injury and didn't play more than 60% of the snaps until the postseason. But he earned 15 targets on 45 snaps in those late-season matchups.

The difference is that Worthy is an investment as a former first-round selection. Brown is on a one-year contract. Plus, Worthy is utilized in the red zone. Andy Reid and Matt Nagy's offensive creativity puts the speedster in motion, allowing a head start on jet sweeps or touch passes to find the end zone. Worthy was 10th in red-zone targets among wide receivers last season. Those aren't of the jump-ball variety.

In between the 20s, Worthy is much more than a deep threat. He averaged one long ball per game, but Reid opted to use Worthy more around the line scrimmage. While that significantly dropped his yards per target, his reception numbers received a bump. 39 of his 59 catches came in Week 10 or later. Worthy saw slower defenders as he scooted across the field. It also kept defenses honest, allowing Worthy to blow by cornerbacks on those high-value targets.

Xavier Worthy uses his speed for the 21-yard TD!

📺: #KCvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/aYPGYXN2j3

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Fantasy managers shouldn't be faulted for taking a shot on Brown in the deep rounds of their fantasy drafts, but Worthy, at his fifth-round ADP, should be well worth the price. He can single-handedly win a week.

Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Pearsall, another first-round pick in 2024, started his debut campaign on the NFI list due to a gunshot wound during a botched robbery attempt in late August.

He missed six games and was bound for a quiet rookie season. When given the opportunity, however, he soared above projections, recording 5.5 receptions, 80.25 yards, and 0.75 touchdown splits in his four starts. Although it's a small sample size, we got a glimpse of his potential in San Francisco's final two games (8-141-1, 6-69-1) once he adjusted to the NFL game. That was on a 21% target share and 30% first-read share.

The 49ers knew they couldn't afford to retain Deebo Samuel Sr. and Brandon Aiyuk with the now-signed extension for quarterback Brock Purdy. That was the idea behind spending the high-value draft pick on Pearsall. With Samuel in Washington and Aiyuk's status for the season opener in doubt as he recovers from a torn ACL and MCL, Pearsall's time is now.

And, the best part of it all, he can be found in the dollar section of Target in fantasy drafts. He can be had outside of the first 100 picks, which is typically unseen for a young, high-draft capital receiver who could open the season as the WR1. At worst, he and Jauan Jennings are equals and on the field all the time.

Pearsall won't be the focal point of any opponent's defensive game plan. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will come off the board in the fourth round as the established weapons in San Francisco. That's not necessarily a bad thing for Pearsall.

49ers used shifts/motion on 77% of passing plays last season (3rd most)

expecting Ricky Pearsall to be featured more as a movement piece in 2025 pic.twitter.com/xDm5xXvidZ

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) May 18, 2025

If the breakout doesn't happen, it's because Aiyuk recovers quicker than anticipated and Pearsall is shoehorned into the slot role. Kyle Shanahan runs two-receiver sets often, so Pearsall's snap percentage won't be up to par. Plus, his numbers were significantly better when lined up outside.

But if he starts strong with Aiyuk sidelined, it will be difficult for Shanahan to send his former first-round pick to the bench. A cheap piece of a good offense is a great asset to have.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears

Another first-round wide receiver who didn't break out, Rome Odunze's rookie campaign was spoiled by an inept offense and a crowded receiver room. That led to a WR49 finish (65th in PPG) on a 54/734/3 stat line. Odunze had just two games over 80 yards (112 in Week 3 and 104 in Week 8).

His best game, the aforementioned Week 3 contest, was when Keenan Allen was in street clothes on the sideline. The veteran is no longer on the roster, a hopeful vote of confidence for Odunze's future.

But with Allen's departure comes more offensive weapons. Chicago's first two NFL Draft picks were spent on pass-catchers: Tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall selection and wide receiver Luther Burden III at 39. The depth chart may look more crowded on paper, but Odunze is guaranteed to move up a spot in the pecking order, and neither rookie participated in OTAs due to injury, putting them behind the eight ball.

The offense ranked 30th in total offense and 24th in scoring when the big bosses fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. In the end, they finished even worse, last in yards per game and 28th in scoring.

And that's why ownership hired Ben Johnson as the franchise's next head coach. Johnson was the architect for the league-leading Detroit offense. There will not be a lack of offensive creativity in Chicago this time around.

Rome Odunze's contested catch ability from Washington showing up on Sunday's pic.twitter.com/3rZmh31rVQ

— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) November 24, 2024

That alone should help Odunze fulfill his missed potential. Odunze was in the top 12 in average target distance (13.8), deep targets (23), and red-zone targets (18). Talk about unfulfilling opportunities -- Odunze had the second-most unrealized air yards and secured seven of those 18 red-zone targets. In total, only 58% of his targets were catchable. It was miss after miss after miss.

Caleb Williams converting those attempts on the revamped offense, coupled with a vastly improved offensive line, can lead to Odunze enjoying the breakout season his dynasty managers are longing for.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix already exceeded rookie-year expectations and now seems poised to cement himself as a yearly QB1 for fantasy football.

Like most rookies, Nix struggled against NFL defenses early on in 2024. He didn't throw his first passing touchdown until Week 4, a game in which he totaled 60 passing yards on a 48 percent completion rate. By Week 5, his first multi-touchdown game, the 12th overall pick began to figure things out. And from Week 10 on, he was sizzling. Nix failed to have multiple touchdowns in just one of his final eight games, finishing the year as the QB7.

For fantasy football and the real-life version, Nix's secret weapon is his legs. Fantasy managers love a quarterback with rushing upside. Last year, Nix was 10th among quarterbacks in carries per game (5.4) and eighth in rush yards (430). He's a tier below the rushing all-stars (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, etc.), but it's a nice boost for his overall fantasy value.

What it also does is open up the passing lanes. NFL defenses began to respect the rushing threat, especially when his decision-making in the pocket wasn't up to par. Now, whether he's on the move or waiting on the play to develop, he's finding his read.

2+ minutes of Bo Nix's arm beating defenders to windows, working closing MOF windows, working far hash concepts and launching throws downfield. pic.twitter.com/Hgu5BgEATw

— Robby (@Robby_NFL) January 10, 2025

His knowledge of the game should only continue to improve in Year 2. Plus, Denver added missing offensive pieces, mainly a pass-catching tight end (Evan Engram) and running backs (RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins).

It's wild to read, comparing a two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion to a second-year pro who was smoked in his lone playoff game, but selecting Nix over Patrick Mahomes in fantasy drafts may be the correct call.

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