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Welcome to my 2024 team-by-team prospect rankings. Over the next few months, I'll be going through all 30 MLB farm systems, ranking my top 10 in each system, and discussing the profiles and long-term outlooks of these players.
After finishing the National League West, we shift over to the Central Division. The Chicago Cubs have become one of the top systems in baseball over the last few years and currently have five Top 50 prospects, led by a top-10 overall prospect in Pete Crow-Armstrong and a tier-1 pitching prospect in Cade Horton.
Check out the rest of the Top-10's throughout the offseason here.
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Chicago Cubs Top Prospects
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.0 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
In my opinion, Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the more undervalued top prospects in the game. He's certainly not slept on as he does get ranked highly, but when people are discussing the best prospects in the game for fantasy purposes, his name rarely enters the conversation. In 107 games between Double-A and Triple-A, Crow-Armstrong racked up 53 extra-base hits, 20 home runs, and 37 steals with a .283/.365/.511 slash line. This coming after a 16/32 season with a .312 average in 2022.
The power/speed blend with PCA is 100% legit. He's an above-average power bat who can consistently elevate with plus speed and could settle in as an annual 20+/20+ player moving forward while also providing a solid AVG in the .260-.275 range. Crow-Armstrong is also a great defender in centerfield which will help keep him in the lineup through any struggles at the plate. Long-term, PCA has the potential to be a top-100 fantasy player and top-20 outfielder.
2. Cade Horton, P
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.6 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
As we leave the 2023 season behind and look forward to 2024, there's no clear-cut top pitching prospect. For me, there's a top tier of five pitching prospects and Cade Horton is one of them. And I'll fully admit that I was skeptical about the Cubs taking him 7th overall after limited time at Oklahoma and thought his draft stock was overly inflated due to his dominant run in the College World Series. Well, that was all incorrect and Horton is 100% legit.
In 21 starts across Lo-A, Hi-A, and Double-A, Horton compiled a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.7% walk rate, and a 33.5% strikeout rate. Horton dominated from start to finish in 2023 with his elite fastball/slider combination along with a solid curveball, changeup, and above-average command and control. He was one of just three pitching prospects with an xFIP under 3.00 and a K-BB rate above 25%. Horton is a stud and a no-doubt top-5 pitching prospect right now that will likely be up during the first half of the 2024 season.
3. Matt Shaw, SS/2B
Age on 4/1/2024: 22.4 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
After a great collegiate career at the University of Maryland, Matt Shaw was drafted 13th overall by the Chicago Cubs in the 2023 draft and that's already looking like an absolute steal. In 38 games after the draft, mostly in Hi-A or Double-A, Shaw racked up 21 extra-base hits, eight home runs, and 15 steals with a .357/.400/.618 slash line. Shaw didn't walk much with a 5.3% walk rate but only struck out 14.7% of the time.
In a loaded 2023 draft class, Shaw was one of the best pure hitters in the entire class. Even as a guy who didn't walk much after the draft, the blend of contact, pitch recognition, and power is highly impressive, giving Shaw legit .280/25 upside at the plate while also having the speed to add 15+ steals annually as well. The all-around blend of offensive skills gives Shaw the upside of a top-50 overall player down the road and potentially a top-10 player at either middle infield position
4. Owen Caissie, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 21.7 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2024
Back in the 2020 draft, Owen Caissie was a hitter I was fairly high on. But in 2022, Caissie fell down my rankings a bit due to underwhelming contact and power production. That fall continued early in 2023 as Caissie was striking out at a 35.5% clip at the end of June. However, over the final three months of the season, Caissie dropped his strikeout rate to 26.8% while slashing .314/.435/.536 in 272 plate appearances.
With all of that said, I still have some slight concerns about how much contact Caissie will make moving forward and how high the average will be. He was around a 65% contact rate in Double-A, and as of now, I don't feel confident projecting him to hit more than .250 or so. But that could come with 30 home runs and 5-10 steals as well.
5. Kevin Alcantara, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 21.7 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
One of the highest variance players in the Chicago Cubs top 10 has to be Kevin Alcantara. And depending on where you look, the rankings on him are all over the place. For me, he's a borderline top-50 prospect with the upside to jump inside the top 20 very quickly. It feels like Alcantara has been around forever but he's still only 21 years old. He's coming off another good but not outstanding season in the minors where he finished with a .284/.345/.466 with 26 doubles, 13 home runs, and 15 steals in 435 plate appearances, most of which at Hi-A South Bend.
Alcantara has been a prospect that has consistently performed well but the raw tools have always hinted at more production and upside that just hasn't popped up yet. The contact skills are solid and Alcantara has enough raw power to eventually flirt with or exceed 30 home runs in a season. I'd like to see him add more bulk than he already has, but maybe this is the frame he'll settle in with moving forward. If everything clicks, the upside is a .260+/25+/15+ player and an impact outfielder for fantasy purposes. maybe 2024 will be his full coming out party and breakout season at the plate.
6. James Triantos, 2B
Age on 4/1/2024: 21.2 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
I'll fully admit that James Triantos is a player I underranked throughout the 2023 season. My ranking of him was lower mostly due to questions surrounding how much power Triantos was going to provide moving forward. There's no doubting that the contact skills and approach are elite, and Triantos did improve his quality of contact throughout the 2023 season, which is part of the reason why he's made a significant jump up my rankings. Triantos is also dominating out in the Arizona Fall League and looks like one of the frontrunners for AFL MVP as I write this with around a week to go in the 2023 AFL season.
In 2023, Triantos hit .287 with a .364 OBP but only had four home runs in 83 games with a .391 SLG and .104 ISO. And while I still don't believe he'll be an impact player in the power department, Triantos could be a 12-15 homer guy to pair with a good AVG/OBP and 20+ steals annually. He also mentioned on the live CBS Fantasy Baseball Today podcast out at BaseballHQ's FIrst Pitch Arizona event that he wanted to steal 30 bases in 2024.
7. Matt Mervis, 1B
Age on 4/1/2024: 25.9 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
So much for all that hype last offseason. After a dominant 2022 in the upper minors and a standout performance in the Arizona Fall League, the hype surrounding Matt Mervis for both redraft and dynasty was at a fever pitch. He was even being drafted within the top-200 picks of some redraft leagues. And while I was and still am a believer that Mervis can be a solid fantasy first baseman, last offseason was an ideal sell-high time in dynasty leagues that I don't believe many took advantage off.
That's easy to say now right? But now we're on the other end of the spectrum and it might be a good time to buy low on Mervis as long as you have fair expectations of what he can provide moving forward. There's still plus or better raw power in the profile that could translate to 30+ home runs over a full season. And while the contact skills won't translate to a high average, he could still get in the .240-.260 range with a decent OBP as well. I'm really hoping he can trim the strikeout rate a bit in 2024 though.
8. Alexander Canario, OF
Age on 4/1/2024: 23.9 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
Due to ankle and shoulder injuries, Alexander Canario was limited to just 53 minor league games in 2023 but he still made his Major League debut with the Cubs, playing six games late in the season. Canario has always demonstrated plus or better raw power and did once again this season, but he only stole two bases in 53 games after 23 the previous season. That's not overly surprising given the brutal ankle injury he suffered last offseason, but those steals ticking back up will be crucial for his value moving forward.
Canario's contact skills have also been questioned throughout his MiLB career and he was once again below a 70% contact rate this past season. The long-term upside is a 30-homer bat with 15 steals annually if he starts running again. However, the contact skills and questions surrounding how much he'll run moving forward are why he's only 8th in this talented farm system for me.
9. Moises Ballesteros, C/1B
Age on 4/1/2024: 20.4 | Highest Level: AA | ETA: 2025
After decent showings in 2021 and 2022, Moises Ballesteros enjoyed a mini breakout in 2023. In 117 games between Lo-A, Hi-A, and Double-A, Ballesteros slashed .285/.375/.449 with 27 doubles, 14 home runs, and seven steals. Overall, Ballesteros is an interesting prospect due to the fact that he's a well below-average runner and doesn't bring much defensive value outside of his arm. He's probably not a catcher long-term so he's going to need to have his bat carry him.
Offensively, Ballesteros has shown around average contact skills in the 71-76% range with a solid approach (12.8% BB, 15.8% K) and above-average raw power as well. I'd love to say I can see Ballesteros adding more power moving forward, but there's no physical projection left on his frame. We're probably looking at a .260 bat with 15-20 homers annually. That would look fine with catcher eligibility, but much less attractive as a first baseman.
10. Jordan Wicks, P
Age on 4/1/2024: 24.6 | Highest Level: MLB | ETA: Debuted
When it comes to pitching prospects, Jordan Wicks isn't one that garners a ton of buzz, but this is absolutely the profile of a solid Major League starter. In 20 MiLB starts between Double-A and Triple-A, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.6% walk rate, and a 26.5% strikeout rate. Wicks then followed that up with a 4.41 ERA in seven Major League starts.
Wicks mixes three fastballs (4-seam, 2-seam, cutter), two breaking balls (curve, slider), and a changeup. The 4-seam and cutter weren't effective for him with the Cubs but the sinker certainly was, and both the curve and changeup had a whiff rate above 30%. While Wicks doesn't profile as an impact arm for fantasy purposes, he has the arsenal and command profile to succeed as an SP4 type in the Majors.
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see the full top 40 along with additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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