RADIO
Week 3 was slightly kinder on the injury front, but we still lost a few key players to the blue medical tent. As we look to move forward stronger than ever, we've added three tiers of bids to reflect how conservative or desperate you/your league might be. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
It's difficult to toe the line between savvy and overreaction, but do consider making a few calculated dart throws at RB/WR this early. Trust your process and us as analysts! Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 4.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
C.J. Stroud and the Texans convincingly upset the Jaguars by 20 points behind 280 yards and two passing TDs from the rookie. The line got boosted by a 68-yard strike to Tank Dell, whom Stroud has shown a blossoming connection with.
Not only does Stroud have a 4/0 TD/INT ratio, but he’s rushed at least three times in each game thus far. The 35 rush yards aren’t glamorous, but it’s encouraging to see the willingness out of the gate. Facing Pittsburgh in Week 4 isn’t a great spot, but Stroud has performed admirably and looks like a long-term QB.
Andy Dalton (QB, CAR) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Andy Dalton appears on track to lead Carolina into a juicy matchup with Minnesota’s leaky defense. The Panthers may try to lean on Miles Sanders but their offensive line isn’t Philadelphia’s. The Vikes just let Justin Herbert eclipse 400 passing yards and Dalton threw for 361 yards off of the bench in Week 3.
Jameis Winston (QB, NO) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Jameis Winston came in for an injured Derek Carr late in an eventual loss to the Packers. He completed 10-of-16 passes for 101 yards and got increasingly comfortable as time wore on. He got New Orleans into field goal range but Blake Grupe couldn’t nail the 46-yarder. Still, Winston had chemistry with Chris Olave and gets Alvin Kamara back in Week 4 as we await a timeline for Carr.
Derek Carr has an AC joint sprain severe enough to warrant a hospital visit
NFL QBs miss 17 days on average due to AC joint sprains #Saints pic.twitter.com/eUmY8zCd7a
— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) September 25, 2023
Sam Howell (QB, WSH) - 21% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-2%
Yes, Sam Howell had an awful game against Buffalo. The Commanders got destroyed 37-3 and the youngster was left taking risky shots to claw back against a roaring Josh Allen-led squad. He absorbed nine sacks while throwing four interceptions. We hope it’s his low point.
Washington’s offensive line will have its hands full against a strong Eagles front in Week 4, but Philly has also allowed 20+ points in their first two games. Howell has shown the ability to throw into tight windows and we know he has rushing potential that Eric Bieniemy may or may not unleash. Keep him in mind for Week 5’s date against Chicago’s reeling defense.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
De'Von Achane (RB, MIA) - 41% rostered
FAAB Bid: 20-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-60%
Do I need to twist your arm here? De'Von Achane was part of a historic stomping of the Broncos, with his 22 touches supplying 233 total yards and four touchdowns. It now feels like eons ago that his preseason injury knocked him down the depth chart. This man was a healthy scratch just two weeks ago!
Well, he’s undoubtedly up to speed now. His wheels were on full display as it only took until the second drive for him to mix in with Raheem Mostert. Achane will soon have to further split the backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed, but we’ve seen the ceiling. Miami’s offense and Achane’s dynamism are well worth the roster spot. Even plays that didn't count looked amazing!
Devon Achane is nuts. This play resulted in a TD.
It got called back (Achane scored later on the drive). But the fact that he can burst through this and get the angle on 22 at the top is insane. pic.twitter.com/V5SEHhPbiJ
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 25, 2023
Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-20%
Justice Hill missed Week 3 with a toe injury but it doesn’t sound serious. Baltimore is reeling after a tough loss to Indianapolis and Gus Edwards is in the concussion protocol. It was Hill working ahead of Edwards when both were healthy, with a clear edge in receiving work, which makes Hill a solid add.
Melvin Gordon III and Kenyan Drake did what they could as complementary backs but neither made a serious impact. If we are left to choose between MG3 and Drake then Gordon is the one who had 12 touches to Drake’s three (KD also lost a fumble). But let’s hope it doesn’t come to that. Don’t forget about Keaton Mitchell on the IR either!
Matt Breida (RB, NYG) - 30% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
Matt Breida salvaged his Week 3 with a TD plunge against the 49ers after seeing just seven touches despite playing over 80% of NYG’s snaps. Some are saying that Saquon Barkley could return from a high-ankle sprain in Week 4 but that would be an aggressive timeline.
Many medical folks in the FF space expect Barkley to remain out through next week, which thrusts Breida into a better matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks have given up five touchdowns to opposing RBs thus far and the early over/under at 46.5 bodes well for scoring.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 24% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-14%
Tennessee’s offense continues to struggle behind Ryan Tannehill in ‘23 and poor gamescripts are capping Derrick Henry. The stud RB was limited to 20 yards on 11 carries with zero targets against Cleveland’s stout defense. While Tyjae Spears didn’t fare better in the box score, his usage continues to trend up.
Spears outsnapped Henry 27-17, running 18 routes (four targets) to Henry’s six. The tally was 34-30 in Spears’ favor when the Titans were trailing against the Saints in Week 1. They won’t always be facing stonewall fronts but the windfall of trust for Spears is heartwarming.
Latavius Murray (RB, BUF) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Latavius Murray continues to work as the big-bodied back of choice for the Bills. I really thought it was Damien Harris’ role to lose but Murray has now scored in consecutive weeks. Josh Allen only has 12 carries through three games, with coachspeak backing up that downward trend.
Last season, Allen had 47 carries in Buffalo’s first six games. The chances of an Allen vulture appear less in ‘23, making Murray’s role slightly more bankable. You’d like more volume and a floor higher than a point or two, but this is the game!
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Tank Dell (WR, HOU) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 15-25%
Aggressive Bid: 25-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-40%
Tank Dell paced the Texans in targets (seven) in Week 3, parlaying them into five catches for 145 yards and a score. No other Houston receiver eclipsed three catches or 35 yards. I still love Nico Collins and Robert Woods is a safe possession guy, but Dell’s big-play ceiling is undeniable and it's everything we want in fantasy.
Those of you who wrote him off as a one-week wonder after Week 2 will have to reconsider. Even the bearish among you must acknowledge Dell and Stroud both improved their range of outcomes following Week 3. The Texans are willing to play shoot-’em-up football with Dell at the forefront.
Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-35%
Joshua Palmer was elevated into an every-play WR following Mike Williams’ knee injury. We’ve since learned he tore his ACL and is sadly lost for the season. The immediate fallout brings a debate up of the lower-ceiling, high-floor Palmer versus the upside of rookie Quentin Johnston.
Did Palmer play more because LAC hadn’t prepared Johnston for a full role? Or is Johnston still simply too raw for a large complement of work? I lean toward the latter. And while Palmer hasn’t had a recent explosion, we’ve seen strong snap rates and box scores from him without Williams on the field.
(I’d bid ~10-20% on Johnston if I had a bench slot to dedicate to him over the next few weeks.)
Josh Palmer in 3 games without Mike Williams and with Keenan Allen last season:
* 8-106-2
* 5-56-0
* 7-60-028 total targets for a 22.6% share.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 25, 2023
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
The Broncos stink, but Marvin Mims doesn’t! Denver let Jerry Jeudy run 33 routes while Courtland Sutton (38) was the No. 1 WR. But Brandon Johnson played on 37 snaps with 23 routes run while Mims only ran 11 routes on 15 snaps.
Mims logged 73 yards on three catches with a 99-yard kickoff return sprinkled on top. This comes after 123 total yards on just four touches in Week 2. Johnson’s 2-12-0 line speaks to the low ceiling when he doesn’t catch fluky Hail Mary TDs.
We can’t make Mims play more but Sean Payton and the Broncos are 0-3 and should lean on their playmakers. How much you trust Payton’s personnel management should dictate your aggressiveness.
Broncos Longest Gains of 2023 Season
1 Marvin Mims, 99 yds
2 Marvin Mims, 60
3 Marvin Mims, 53
4 Brandon Johnson, 50
5 Jerry Jeudy, 46
6 Marvin Mims, 45
7 Marvin Mims, 38
8 Marvin Mims, 30
9 Marvin Mims, 30
10 Marvin Mims, 25Mims has just 7 catches + 5 kick returns this year
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 25, 2023
D.J. Chark Jr. (WR, CAR) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Adam Thielen stole the spotlight with a wild 11-145-1 line on 14 targets, but D.J. Chark actually ran 61 routes to Thielen’s 57 on an equal 74 snaps played. Jonathan Mingo left early with a concussion but Chark and Thielen were the primaries regardless.
Andy Dalton would once again be the QB in Week 4 if Bryce Young’s ankle doesn’t improve. Carolina faces shootout conditions over the next three weeks (MIN, DET, MIA) and Chark should be a field stretcher with a high ceiling for such a low rostered rate.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Rashee Rice brought in 5-of-7 targets for 59 yards as he continues to delight early on. It’s unlikely that anyone except Travis Kelce is a consistent producer in KC’s passing game, but Rice is showing breakout signs in their top-rated offense.
Kadarius Toney remains limited by injuries and Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Justin Watson are there for deep shots. Rice and Skyy Moore look like the most consistent WR options right now. Do we eventually get a chance for Justyn Ross? I digress. Rice’s unknown ceiling with Patrick Mahomes’ insane talent makes him a stellar stash/flex play.
Josh Downs (WR, IND) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Josh Downs caught eight passes for 57 yards in an overtime slugfest against Baltimore. He was a hot read for Gardner Minshew against a quick Ravens front but is still relegated to three-wide sets. PFF charted him with 41 routes run on 67 snaps, compared to 46-on-81 for Alec Pierce.
When healthy, Anthony Richardson supplies a lower passing volume compared to Minshew, but Richardson remains in concussion protocol as of Monday. The rise in Downs’ usage here gives the slot man the No. 2 role among pass-catchers behind Michael Pittman Jr., as Pierce only has six catches and the tight end room remains crowded.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave (TE, GB) - 18% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Luke Musgrave has turned 15 targets into 11 catches for 124 yards, with a season-best eight targets coming on Sunday against the Saints. He’d be pushing 75% rostered if Love hadn’t missed him on a seam route, or if he didn’t trip on the wide-open downfield strike in Week 1. Early flukes can heavily skew a sample.
The Packers have an early Week 6 bye but get strong matchups against Detroit and Las Vegas these next two weeks. Some will view the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson as a negative, but they raise the offense’s ceiling. Jordan Love has proven resourceful and the Pack should need all hands on deck in a critical divisional game against the Lions on a short week.
Luke Musgrave Route Rate by Week:
Week 1: 80%
Week 2: 81%
Week 3: 86%He ranks 6th in TE usage this season...
— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) September 25, 2023
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) - 19% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
We hoped Taysom Hill would see more rushing work with the banged-up RB room, but he only saw four carries in the 18-17 loss to Green Bay. We’ll note that a 14-yard run was negated by holding.
Either way, Derek Carr’s injury opens up potential for additional Wildcat opportunities just as Alvin Kamara’s return limits the RB upside. It’s a reach, but New Orleans might need the creativity in a fierce divisional game against Tampa Bay. Side note: Can this include getting Rashid Shaheed more consistently involved?
Cole Turner (TE, WSH) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Cole Turner leapfrogged John Bates with Logan Thomas sidelined (concussion), posting a modest 4-35-0 line on seven targets. We’ve shown some long-term promise in Sam Howell and this offense doesn’t shy away from involving the tight ends. If Thomas is out in Week 4 then Turner’s share of the passing pie makes him a deep-league dart.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (at NO) - 28% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
The Bucs had a tough matchup against the defending NFC champs in Week 3 but now travel to face their old friend, Jameis Winston. The Saints look to curtail Winston’s turnover-prone ways but the Bucs’ (typically) stellar run D should limit a rusty NO unit that’ll have Alvin Kamara in his first game action of ‘23. The “funnel D” could be a trap for Winston or for streamers. Can you live with the risk?
Denver Broncos Defense (at CHI, vs. NYJ) - 38% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Denver is being rage-dropped across the FF universe but they have two dreamy matchups on the horizon. Yes, Miami just treated their defense like the little cousin at the family Turkey Bowl.
But hope springs eternal through Justin Fields and Zach Wilson. I hate it, you hate it, we all hate it. This could be your classic “stoppable force meets moveable object” but a desperate team should be willing to bank on Fields/Wilson simply making mistakes.
Houston Texans Defense (vs. PIT) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Houston turned in a stellar four-sack performance against Baltimore in Week 1, but hasn’t logged a sack in their two games (IND, JAX) since. Luckily, they draw a Pittsburgh offense that has yielded eight sacks and four turnovers while averaging 15 points through three games.
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