RADIO
Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question a great way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of running backs, considering overall elusiveness is arguably the best way to determine how good (or bad) a player's performance was. And that's what this is all about.
I will be looking at advanced rushing data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and on top of that, crossing those numbers with 2022 ADP values from fantasy drafts up to this date in order to find the biggest busts poised to have poor seasons this year given their 2021 numbers. All of it will be focused on how many missed tackles these players forced, how often they broke tackles relative to volume, and their tendency to accumulate yardage after contact.
The average draft position definitely plays a role here, considering many of these players are getting drafted way early when looking at his underlying numbers. Let's get to it!
2022 Missed Tackles Forced Busts
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Nothing is official as I'm writing this little thing, but there are very loud whispers out there about the potential release of WR Amari Cooper from Dallas. Does that mean that extending Elliott a few years back to a massive deal is now hurting the Cowboys by having them working under tight salary constraints? That could be the case, and Dallas might be regretting such extension. Elliott, as good as his 1,002 rushing yards and 10 TD in 2021 look, has not been the same old peak-talent Zeke.
Elliott's 2021 season was indeed remarkable and good for an RB7 finish in PPR leagues. Considering Elliott's pass-catching numbers weren't anything otherworldly (47 receptions, 287 yards, 2 TDs), that's even more impressive! That said, though, Elliott's 14.8 FPPG were lower than the marks of 12 other rushers inside the top-16 at the position last year. One possible explanation was Zeke's inability of breaking tackles, finishing with just 16 BrkTkl over his 237 carries. Elliott was also the second-worst player in Elusive rating (PFF formula), only behind Devontae Booker among rushers with 70+ carries.
Those elusiveness-related numbers were truly egregious. Just for context, no rusher with 180+ carries over the year broke fewer than 21 tackles (Derrick Henry), compared to Zeke's 16... Elliott also finished the year in possession of the worst ELU/100Tch mark by a mile, with an 0.79 mark compared to the second-worst 1.14 of Joe Mixon. The only positive on Zeke's stat line was probably his 59/41 split on YAC/YBC, though even that wasn't that great and the 6.8% BrkTkl rate stank ranking third-worst among those with 100+ rushing attempts.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
If you're one of those planning to draft Cordarrelle Patterson with anything remotely close to what we could consider a high ADP, reconsider your plan. Yes, Patterson was fantastic in 2021 and a bona fide top-12 rusher all things considered. You don't get 234 PPR points every year, right!? That's correct, and the move to Atlanta did wonders to Patterson in what turned out to become a career year for the specialist, even leaving Mike Davis (who people actually paid tons of ADP for) in the dust. Patterson's numbers, though, were on a steady decline all year long and never truly recovered after W12.
Patterson did most of his damage on pass plays, and when he rushed the rock he just couldn't find a way to extend his runs. Among RBs with 100+ carries over the full season, Patterson's 12 broken tackles were tied for the sixth-fewest mark. Even though PFF's Elusive rating factors in receiving stats, Patterson's mark was also a bottom-four figure among those in that same group of rushers (49 total players). All signs point in the same direction: fluky start of the year that only lasted a few weeks until defenses properly adjusted and figured a way to dry Patterson's season.
You might think it doesn't make sense to include Patterson on this column, even less when I've said he found his bread and butter on pass-catching plays. That's correct, but so is the fact that he will 1) be tagged as a RB next year and 2) this is a broken-tackles article... and he simply struggled mightily on that front. The 12 BrkTkls, subtracted from the 33 times he got stuffed, left Patterson as one of the least efficient play-extending rushers doing it in the NFL in 2021.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
This was a very disappointing season by the Dolphins rusher, who seemed to be poised to have a great campaign after averaging 16.4 FPPG just a couple of years ago in 10 games throughout the 2020 season. That didn't come to happen, as Gaskin finished outside of the top-25 rushers in 2021 even though he got to appear in all 17 games played. With the exception of his W5 explosion for nearly 32 PPR points, Gaskin never topped 19 PPR points in any other week of the season, and even though he was the most-dominant Dolphin rusher (only one with more than 71 carries) he finished the year with a measly 612 rushing yards and 3 TDs.
Though Gaskin wasn't Cordarrelle-levels bad, he was still pretty bad with 35 stuffed rushes and only 15 broken tackles. Gaskin was absolutely incapable of racking up YAC with 241 compared such yards compared to his 371 YBC for the 41/59 split over his 173 carries. As incredible as it might sound, Gaskin was one of only 10 RBs (min. 100 ruAtt) with a "negative" YAC/YBC split and also a bottom-five stuffed-carry rate performer among players with 100+ carries.
Every member of the Dolphins backfield with the exception of Gaskin is up for grabs this upcoming free agency, so barring a move in that direction and the acquisition of a true RB1 by Miami, Gaskin will remain the leading rusher of the team. That, though, was the case last season and it really did Gaskin no favors. I'm not liking Gaskin's upside going forward with concerns plaguing his rushing game.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
The same that has happened to Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott and his extension could very well happen to the Giants once they have to decide whether to extend Barkley or let him go as a free agent. Barkley will most probably stay in Gotham for one more year playing under an executed fifth-year option, and then we'll see what happens (NYG seems reluctant to trade him for peanuts this summer).
Barkley seems to be past his peak and he's not even played in the NFL at age 25. Just imagine. He only played in two games in 2020, and though he appeared in 13 this past season, he was clearly cooked posting an average of 11.4 FPPG for a total 148 PPR tally over the year. Nothing to be too hyped about, surely. The only positive is that New York's other oft-used rusher (Devontae Booker) was equally bad on all fronts indicating that trouble might actually be coming (or at least, it is shared) from the OL and other offense-related maladies.
That's not really an excuse for Barkley, though. Barkley only broke 16 tackles in his 162 carries for a measly 9.9% BrkTkl rate, and he got stuffed in 21% of his rushing attempts on top of that. Barkley wasn't even effective at scoring touchdowns, with just 2 TDs over the 2021 campaign for a figure that was tied by Devontae Booker on pretty 17 fewer carries – Barkley and Booker were the only two rushers with 145+ carries and two or fewer TDs... Barkley definitely has top-12 talent in him, but the availability is growing smaller by the year and that is undoubtedly going to cut his upside whether we like it or not.
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