RADIO
Oh boy, did we get back on track this week, hitting on seven of the top 10 and four of the top five defenses. I'm not gonna lie, it felt pretty good. It's been a long and weird fantasy football season, with many in the season-long and DFS communities talking about it being one of the toughest years in recent memory in terms of predicting outcomes and having process match results.
We're also starting to see some teams be more cautious or careful with injured players, so this is something we really need to keep an eye on up until lock each week. Darrell Henderson Jr. probably would have played had it been a tough matchup, and it didn't matter against the Jaguars, but it might in another situation. D'Andre Swift might be able to play this week, but would the Lions really rush him back with nothing to play for?
As you get into these late weeks of the season, we really need to make sure we're keeping up on the news and thinking a couple of steps ahead. Personally, I think this is the time to have two defenses on your roster. Find the best possible matchup for next week and add them to your bench now for nothing so that you don't need to compete for them on waivers when everybody sees just how tasty a matchup they have.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 14 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage, and even to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 354.8 yards per game and 23.4 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 14 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically, the top-three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success, which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14
Before we get started, if you're looking for Rest of Season Rankings, check the article here or keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
I know some people still want to sleep on the Dallas defense and not take them seriously as an elite yet, but they are the number three ranked defense over the last month, averaging 13.3 points per game. They just got Demarcus Lawrence back last week and Micah Parsons may already be one of the best linebackers in the league. Now that he doesn't have the play defensive end and can blitz and hunt from the linebacker spot, I think this defense is even more dangerous. They're 6th in the NFL in turnover rate and 4th in pressure rate and now going to take on a Washington team that gives up the 9th-most points to opposing defenses and couldn't get anything going against a relatively average Las Vegas defense, so I love the Cowboys in this spot.
I didn't think I'd be talking about the Green Bay Packers defense as a top option come December, but here we are. The Packers are the 8th ranked defense over the last month, averaging 9 points per game over their last four games. They still don't put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, but I imagine they will be able to notch a couple of sacks considering they just had a week off to prepare for the Bears, who allow the second-most sacks in the NFL. Green Bay is also 8th in turnover rate and 8th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, which is what has been driving their success. What's more, Green Bay is expected to get star cornerback Jaire Alexander back this week, which would be a massive boost to their pass defense.
The Saints were a trendy defense a month ago, but the shine has worn off a little bit. New Orleans is the 25th ranked defense over the last month, averaging 3.5 points per game. It's important to keep in mind that, over that span, they have been tested by Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Denver, but they had a letdown game against Tennessee without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, which was a bit concerning. Still, they had a strong effort early against Dallas but simply couldn't overcome all the Taysom Hill turnovers. Yet, we're obviously going to go back to the well against the Jets. Zack Wilson looked a little better this week against the Eagles and Elijah Moore has come on of late, which has enabled the Jets to improve to only being the 6th-most giving fantasy offense. So even with the improvement, this is still a weak offense that we don't need to be overly worried about.
Even after the departure of Von Miller, Denver has been playing solid defense, coming in as the 14th ranked defense over the last month, averaging 8 points per game. Now, that total alone isn't overly impressive, but a matchup against a Detroit team potentially without D'Andre Swift again certainly is. There was a lot of hype around Jamaal Williams on Sunday with Swift out, but we could clearly see the talent gap between them as Williams didn't get much going in a relatively soft matchup. Denver is 4th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score and 8th in pressure rate, so it's a solid defense overall, even if they don't get a lot of turnovers. We could bump Denver down in the rankings if Swift comes back, but considering AC joint sprains are tricky for running backs and the Lions have nothing to play for, it seems unlikely they would push Swift back.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14
We've been riding Carolina as a strong defensive unit all year, but it's becoming harder to do of late. They are the 16th ranked defense the last month, averaging seven points per game. Those numbers aren't terrible but they certainly aren't winning you any matchups. Without Christian McCaffrey the poor execution on the offensive end has begun to really hamper the defense, consistently providing them with short fields to defend. We thought Cam Newton would be an upgrade on Sam Darnold, but it took him only six quarters to get benched for P.J. Walker, just like Darnold did. The only saving grace for Carolina here is that they get a relatively soft match-up against the Falcons. However, the one thing this Atlanta team does well is protect the passer, and the pass rush is the strength of Carolina's defense, so it might be neutralized a bit. Still, I think there is too much talent on this defense to be held back by a mediocre Atlanta offense that gives up the 3rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses.
Speaking of trendy defenses, Tennessee was the belle of the ball after dismantling Kansas City a few weeks back. Since then, they are the 24th ranked defense over the last month, averaging 5 points per game. However, just like New Orleans, only one of those games (against Houston) was a truly easy matchup. The games against the Rams, Eagles, and Patriots were tough challenges, so we don't want to fully jump off of Tennessee. This Jacksonville offense continues to confound as Urban Meyer decided to bench James Robinson for Carlos Hyde after Robinson lost a fumble. It's no surprise they got rolled by Los Angeles, and I expect Tennessee to come out of their bye week with a plan to continue to stifle Trevor Lawrence and this Jaguars offense that gives up the 2nd most points to opposing fantasy defenses.
It's time we start to acknowledge that this Baltimore offense is not a particularly strong fantasy unit. They certainly find a way to win games and Lamar Jackson is a dynamic talent, but without a running game to support him, Jackson has also been taking more sacks and turning the ball over more than in any season before. As a result, Baltimore has now given up the 5th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. Yup, that's worse than the Jets. That's good news for Cleveland, who is the 10th ranked defense over the last month, averaging 8.8 points per game over their last four games. We just saw Pittsburgh, a defense that had been struggling and was without multiple top weapons, hammer the Ravens offense for seven sacks and a turnover, and Cleveland has an almost identical pressure rate to the Steelers. Baltimore now allows the most sacks in the NFL, with 43 through 12 games, so I fully expect this Cleveland defensive line to be able to do damage as well.
As of right now, we're going to assume that Darren Waller will not play this week, which is obviously a major hit for this Raiders offense. Without him last week, they couldn't really get anything going against an under-performing Washington team. On the other hand, Kansas City has been the 4th defense over the last month, averaging 12.5 p0ints per game over their last four games. They are 2nd in the NFL in QB hurry rate, 3rd in pressure rate, and 10th in turnover rate, so this has emerged as a very fantasy-friendly unit and one you should not worry about starting this week.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14
Now, we come to our matchup-based play. Seattle hasn't been a great fantasy unit, coming in as the 22nd ranked defense over the last month with only 5.8 points per game. They're bottom-third in a lot of key metrics but they are 12th in the NFL in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, so they're not giving up tons of points. While they are not a great pass-rushing team and are 27th in turnover rate, they're going to face a Houston offense that is likely to be led by Davis Mills again. That was extremely beneficial to fantasy defenses earlier, and there's a reason that the Texans give up more fantasy points to opposing defenses than any other team in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers were the number one defense on the week, realizing a lot of the potential we had hoped for them earlier in the season. Nick Bosa and company were able to get a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow, which lead to six sacks and four turnovers. It's important to note that the Bengals lost two starting offensive linemen before the game started, so this was a short-handed unit which may have played into the Chargers' success. This has been a really frustrating defense all year because they don't consistently show up to play, but you have to like them next week against a Giants offense that is projected to start either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm. Anytime you can potentially get a rookie making his first start, you'd like to attack them with the opposing defense. I simply don't have the Chargers higher because of their lack of consistency and the fact that they have been the worst rushing defense in the NFL going up against Saquon Barkley.
Next, we get to four teams that have been pretty standard plays for us all season long but find themselves in really difficult matchups. Buffalo will head to Tampa to take on the Bucs, while Arizona will host the Los Angeles Rams. Generally, we don't want to overreact too much to matchups, and it's OK to play a good defense with a safe floor even in a tough matchup. However, I also know some of you will begin playoffs this week and you may want a better matchup in your starting lineup. If you do choose to go in another direction, I would recommend holding these defenses for future matchups rather than just dropping them.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14
This Cincinnati and San Francisco game features two defenses who have really been playing good football of late. The Bengals are the 5th defense over the last month, averaging 11.7 points per game, while the 49ers are the 7th over the last month, averaging 10.3 points per game. We also just saw that Cincinnati is capable of allowing tons of pressure, so if their offensive line continues to play down men, San Francisco could take advantage. The only issue is that the 49ers pass rush hasn't been great this year and they just allowed 30 points to a Seahawks team that was really struggling to move the ball coming into the game. Recent performance suggests that we should trust these defenses, but they both come with glaring warts, so it's hard to move them much higher.
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 14
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