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Hey RotoBallers! I’m Jorden Hill, and I’ve been putting out fantasy football content on the site all season. Like many of you, I also enjoy a good DFS player prop contest, and I'm here today to give you my breakdown for the Thanksgiving slate of games.
An exciting Thanksgiving Day slate awaits us on Thursday, and our friends at No House Advantage have some really awesome DFS games that you can join right now to get in on the action.
On No House Advantage, you can enter several different Pick 'Em contests against other players, choosing your favorite prop bets for a chance to win cash. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry but feature prize pools worth as much as $20,000.
For Thanksgiving, there is a full slate Pick 'Em contest and a single-game contest for the Thursday night showdown. Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win 21x your money if two of your five prop picks are correct.
Featured Promo: Get a 100% instant deposit match up to $50 with promo code BALLER with your first deposit. All new No House Advantage users get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access for the Big 3 Sports - NFL, NBA, MLB ($199 value)!
How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you feel that Stefon Diggs snagging 7 balls against the Lions is a lock, you would choose Diggs’ over 6.5 receptions prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all the Thursday games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Thanksgiving slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Thanksgiving Slate
Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs BUF) over 67.5 receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown has played on at least 70% of snaps in seven games this season and has gone over this total in five of them. The second-year man earned a whopping 38 targets over the past four weeks and boasts a 28.5% team target share on the season, a number that is sure to persist now that T.J. Hockenson is in Minnesota.
The Bills do have a solid defense, but Buffalo has been much more destructive against the run than the pass. The Bills have allowed 80 or more receiving yards to an opposing wideout in seven of 10 games played this season.
Further, this matchup easily has the highest-projected point total on the slate and Detroit is currently a 9.5-point underdog. Expect a high-scoring affair with the Lions passing a ton to keep up with the Bills’ explosive offense. Jared Goff has no reason not to look for his favorite target early and often.
Ezekiel Elliott (vs NYG) over 30.5 rushing yards
Without any data to support it, this line just feels too low. Fortunately, there are also numbers to back this feeling up.
Elliott has eclipsed this mark in every game he has been active for this season. That’s right, he’s eight-for-eight, with his lowest rushing total on the year of 42 yards coming just last week. He gained those 42 yards playing on just 29% of snaps in his first game back from a knee injury. Tony Pollard has been incredible as of late, but Jerry Jones has remained adamant that Zeke is an integral part of the Cowboys’ offense.
Digging into the matchup, the Giants have surrendered almost 136 rushing yards per game in 2022, which is 10th-most in the NFL. You could give Pollard 100 yards rushing and there would still, on average, be enough to go around for Elliott to hit the over. Dallas also already played against New York in Week 3, and Elliott crushed this line en route to 73 yards on 15 carries.
His snap count should go up from last week and he should have no problem handling 15 attempts again, giving him a great shot to clear 31 yards.
Mac Jones (vs MIN) under 1.5 passing TDs
Jones has not thrown for more than one touchdown in any contest this season and has finished three weeks with zero passing scores. The Patriots have been able to find success running the ball on almost everyone and should have no problem doing the same against the Vikings, who just gave up 151 rushing yards to the Cowboys last week.
To be clear, the Vikings have also struggled to stop opponents from passing on them, but Jones has not had an incredibly difficult schedule to this point. He failed to score twice against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, defenses that all rank in the bottom half against the pass this year.
With Damien Harris looking healthy again, expect New England to lean heavily on him and Rhamondre Stevenson in what is projected to be the lowest-scoring Thanksgiving affair.
Lower Confidence Picks - Thanksgiving Slate
Isaiah McKenzie (vs DET) under 30.5 receiving yards
This potentially high-scoring matchup is enticing as Detroit ranks as a bottom-six defense against the pass. Still, it’s hard to have any faith in McKenzie, who failed to come up with a single reception last week while playing on a season-low 40% of snaps. He is still playing ahead of rookie Khalil Shakir, but the gap in playing time is getting much smaller.
McKenzie has surpassed 30.5 receiving yards just three times this year in nine games played. His line on many sportsbooks currently sits at 20.5, giving us a nice edge here 10 yards higher. Josh Allen is likely to look in the direction of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox before McKenzie, making him the fourth target at best in this offense.
The Lions have also been dreadful against the run, so expect Devin Singletary to see plenty of opportunities, especially if Buffalo gets out to an early lead.
Darius Slayton (vs DAL) over 49.5 receiving yards
Against most other opponents, this line would easily make its way into the Higher Confidence Picks section. Slayton has reached at least 58 yards receiving in five of his last six games, including in four straight. It’s no secret that the Giants’ wide receiver corps is depleted, and is now even more reliant on Slayton with rookie Wan’Dale Robinson officially out for the remainder of the season.
What makes this a lower-confidence play is the matchup. Dallas has limited its foes to a league-low 174.5 passing yards per game. The Cowboys’ pass rush has been excellent and could pose many problems for quarterback Daniel Jones on Thursday.
All that said, this pick still has a great chance of hitting. Slayton has been a big-play threat for his entire career and can easily clear 50 yards with just a few downfield targets. Although the Giants have been dependent on Saquon Barkley and the running game, this Cowboys team is surging right now and should have no trouble putting points on the board. Look for Jones to take a deep shot or two to Slayton to try and keep pace.
Justin Jefferson (vs NE) under 101.5 receiving yards
This is a lower-confidence pick for a reason. It’s never easy betting against one of the best players in football. Jefferson is second in the NFL to only Tyreek Hill in receiving yards and has five games this season with 115 or more. So, on first look, 101.5 might look well within reach.
For a generational player like Jefferson, it is. But it’s still a very high line against one of the best pass defenses in the league. On other sportsbooks, Jefferson’s line is hovering between 85-89 receiving yards. The Patriots are giving up just 188.3 total passing yards per game this year, which is only slightly more than the aforementioned Cowboys.
Furthermore, they’ve allowed just two 100-yard receivers in 10 games, and only one in regulation. This was Garrett Wilson back in Week 3. Allen Lazard is the only other wideout to top the century mark against them, but he didn’t get there until overtime.
Jefferson is also coming off of a letdown performance in which he tallied just 33 receiving yards. There were many factors in play, but one of them may have been a mild turf toe injury that limited the superstar in practice last week. If Jefferson is dealing with any discomfort, it could make things difficult for him in what, again, projects to be a low-scoring duel.
Thanksgiving Day Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Thanksgiving Thursday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully this give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
Play the NFL Picks Em Now on No House Advantage
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