RADIO
John Laghezza's fantasy baseball hitter sleepers and draft targets for Underdog best ball leagues in 2025. His favorite hitter values in the middle rounds.
Best Ball continues to earn more and more of the fantasy market share because it checks all the millennial boxes in this age of instant gratification. The lobbies fill fast, drafts happen even faster, and there's zero in-season management. That's right — no trades, adds, waivers, or FAAB. Even the scoring is done automatically by optimizing your roster's highest possible weekly total.
Of course, anytime you jump into a new format, it's critical to read the rules. Best Ball rules are slightly different than your standard point-per-base systems, hitter production is tallied as follows in the image below
I took the liberty of running Underdog's custom scoring through Derek Carty's inimitable THE BAT X projection system to identify the best values when compared to the average draft position. Keep in mind there's a section of the drafting population that adheres strictly to site ADP. While this mostly represents a square take on the game, it also provides an opportunity to gain some edge on the field simply by doing the math.
Matt Chapman, INF - San Francisco Giants
In a format where outfielders habitually get pushed to the fore, Matt Chapman's slipped through drafters' proverbial cracks. Currently going off the board as the 74th hitter, San Francisco's 31-year-old third baseman is projected to earn several rounds of value as Derek's 31st overall bat (1295.6 Total Points; .327 OBP/84 Runs/85 RBI/30 HR/7 SB). Maybe it's his age or West Coast bias due to playing while most East Coast folks are fast asleep, but there's a lot to be excited about.
Matt Chapman's last five plate appearances:
Solo home run
Solo home run
Flyout
Single
3-run home runCan't be stopped. pic.twitter.com/9RfUuSpHIe
— StatMuse Baseball (@statmusemlb) March 8, 2025
Chapman has improved his approach since leaving Oakland in 2021, and the subsequent disciplinary gains have paid dividends. He's cut his strikeout rate precipitously (24.4 percent K%) while simultaneously increasing contact (84.9% Zone-Contact) and maintaining his underpinning power profile (48.7 percent Hard Hit%, 12.6 percent Barrel%, .428 xwOBAcon). Playing every day in the top third of the Giants' lineup with occasional trips to Coors will provide Chapman with plenty of runway to produce spike weeks for drafters.
Taylor Ward, OF - Los Angeles Angels
If you're new to the Underdog streets, I can't stress this enough — the way outfielders go flying off the board can be a bit of a shock. Seemingly out of pocket, guys like Kyle Schwarber and Brent Rooker will consistently get drafted before known elite infield entities like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Freddie Freeman.
Why? The binary positional INF/OF binning creates a quantifiable disparity in talent available late. For example, 30 MLB teams each start three outfielders (90 total), but some are part-time players or flat-out stink. Considering the inability to add in-season, waiting too long on OFs often leads to empty cupboards in the final rounds. Conversely, those same 30 squads start +4 infielders (+120 total), leaving a depth of undrafted viable best-ball assets at INF.
Somehow, the Angels' everyday left fielder is avoiding the offseason consumer rush, despite making 663 plate appearances in 2024 to top off a strong three-year 600 PA pace (.339 OBP/76 Runs/69 RBI/23 HR/6 SB).
Ward also boasts a strong complement of format-specific traits. His refusal to chase outside the zone (24.5 percent O-Swing%) paired with above-average contact (87.3 percent Zone-Contact%) paved the way to critical double-digit rate outputs in both walks (10 percent) and barrels (11.4 percent) during the timeframe. Drafted in the seventh round as the 70th hitter by ADP, projections (1252.4 Points) place Ward inside the top-45 bats, good for another several-round discount at price on a much-needed OF.
Andrew Vaughn, INF - Chicago White Sox
If you're buying what I'm selling here today, there isn't a more valuable pick at this cost than Chicago's Andrew Vaughn. Granted, the White Sox project to lose 110 or more games in 2025 but there comes a time when points are points. Despite playing every day and posting back-to-back-to-back 1,000-point seasons in the Dinger, the former first-round pick's going mostly undrafted. It's easy to get prospect fatigue when a young ballplayer doesn't immediately fulfill their prophecy, but Vaughn's still just 26 years old.
If you're running with the pack and front-loading outfielders like me, it makes sense to allot an extra player at the position with the least amount of draft capital spent. I generally pre-set my limits at seven maximum across the board and make my last selection a condition of that specific room. Therefore, I'm oftentimes shopping in that extra blob of undrafted INF talent I mentioned above.
For a last-round pick, you could do much worse than a hitter with two straight +650 PA seasons and a quality archetype. Vaughn makes a ton of contact (90.2 percent Zone-Contact%), with lots of lift (45.8 percent Flyball%) and decent power (44.3 percent Hard Hit%, 9.3 percent Barrel%) — he's just the 180th hitter by ADP, but 66th in total points according to THE BAT X, with an 1135.6 projection.
Mike Trout, OF - Los Angeles Angels
Thus far, we've used total point projections to identify values, but that's not the only way to process this data. While I never recommend digging around under the hood and pulling out every wire in sight, there's a simple way to adjust player expectations without double-counting variables and keeping the math in check: playing time. Analysts and fantasy gamers alike display more certainty than they should when it comes to injuries. No one (and I mean no one) knows if they will happen, and maybe more importantly when.
Considering that methodology, we'll now take those same projected point totals and divide by plate appearances to develop a rate stat (Points/PA). Unsurprising to anyone who knows baseball at all, this year's biggest value is the best hitter of our lifetime, Mike Trout. Sometimes falling into the late fourth round as the 36th hitter by ADP, the 33-year-old veteran ranks as the seventh most impactful bat on a per-plate-appearance basis (2.77 Pts/PA). Mix in positional scarcity with an outside shot at a fully healthy season, and we could easily have a league-winning pick on our hands.
Active position players with 50+ rWAR:
1. Mike Trout 86.2 WAR
2. Mookie Betts 69.6
3. Paul Goldschmidt 62.8
4. Freddie Freeman 60.7
5. Manny Machado 57.8
6. Nolan Arenado 56.7
7. Jose Altuve 52.8
8. Jose Ramirez 52.4
9. Aaron Judge 52.2
10. Bryce Harper 51.1 pic.twitter.com/ykSQDRv1ok— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) March 12, 2025
The Angels' former three-time MVP still rates as one of the best power hitters on the planet, when he's on the field. Yes, that last part's the biggest obstacle — Trout hasn't eclipsed +600 PA since 2019. However, his skills remain unmatched and he's sporting a nearly 200 wRC+ this spring.
Going back seven years to 2018, we're still talking about one of the game's premier power bats by any objective measure (48.1 percent Hard Hit%, 1.017 OPS, 17 percent Barrel%, 118.0 max EV, 171 wRC+). It's going to take a small leap of faith to smash the draft button when Trout's name tops your queue, but the potential payoff's undeniable — fortune favors the bold.
Yanier Diaz, INF - Houston Astros
Houston will need Diaz to step up this season with Kyle Tucker's bat missing from the lineup. Last season he hit only 16 home runs after launching 23 in his rookie season, but also upped his batting average by 17 points, finishing with a slash line of .299/325/.441.
He cut down on strikeouts while raising his walk rate a tick and getting on base more often. Now if he can combine the increased contact and on-base skills with more power, we are looking at a guy with 20+ home run potential and a lineup spot hitting behind Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker that could help him produce 90+ RBI.
He's positioned for 600 plate appearances this year as he's likely going to DH even on days when he doesn't catch. He's just 26 years old and we have not likely seen his true ceiling as a hitter just yet.
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