RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 9 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
And we're back for another week of two-start streaming options as we head into Memorial Day weekend. Rotoballer hasn't fired me yet, so let's keep it up and look at who we got this week.
First off, Week 7 went a LOT better for this column than Week 6 (not that it would take much to do better). Although he only had one strikeout in his second start, I think it's safe to say Reynaldo Lopez was the top choice in Week 7 after posting two quality starts while earning a win and allowing just two earned runs. Looking at Week 8, Julio Teheran is off to the best start out of that list, allowing one run while striking out six over 5 2/3 innings against the Giants.
As we wait to see how Week 8 wraps up, let's get cracking on who to grab in Week 9.
Week 9 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Steven Matz, NYM - 44% owned
Probable opponents: @ LAD, @ ARI
The first of a few familiar faces making another appearance in this column, Matz is coming off his fourth quality start in his last seven outings after holding Washington to one run over six innings while striking out seven. Matz has quietly been a fairly consistent pitcher this season, as he has thrown at least five innings in all but two starts, and his disastrous outing against Philadelphia in which he didn't record an out is the only start he's had this year where he's allowed more than three runs. In fact, if you give him a mulligan on that outing and take it out of his season stat line, his ERA drops from 3.63 to 2.42.
This week will be interesting to watch, because while he has a couple of decent matchups against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks they're both on the road — and his home-road splits both for this season and his career shows he does better in New York. First up for Matz will be the Dodgers, who have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games. They are currently averaging 4.3 runs per game over that stretch, while hitting .232 and averaging 7.7 strikeouts per game. If Matz can pitch well in Los Angeles, he should also do well against the Diamondbacks who are putting up a similar offensive performance over their last 10 games. While Arizona has gone 3-7 over that stretch, they are also averaging 4.4 runs and 9.0 strikeouts per game while hitting .232.
Matz has been a pretty solid pitcher this season outside of two bad starts, and owners should look at him as a solid streaming option. While he might not be in line for wins this week thanks to New York's struggling offense, he could be a valuable asset in quality starts leagues.
Sonny Gray, CIN - 34% owned
Probable opponents: vs PIT, vs WAS
And another starter returning to this list, Gray is coming off his first win of the season after throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts against Milwaukee. Since appearing on my Week 4 column, Gray has posted a less than impressive 4.40 ERA, but he is averaging just over five innings per start with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 10.3 K.9.
Interestingly enough, Gray seems to have the opposite problem of Matz this week — Gray has pitched better on the road this season, and both of his starts in Week 9 are at home. In his first game he'll face the Pirates for the third time this season. After lasting just 2 2/3 innings his first time against them, Gray recorded a quality start against Pittsburgh his second time around — allowing one run while striking out seven over 6 2/3 innings. The Pirates have been heating up as of late though, averaging 4.8 runs per game while hitting .270 over their last 10 games — including a 14-run, 15-hit outburst on Thursday against Colorado. The Nationals have been putting up similar numbers over their last 10 games, as they are hitting .270 and averaging 4.3 runs per game. That being said, two things in Gray's favor are the Nationals have been hitting worse on the road (.235 road vs .251 home) while hitting worse against right handers (.229 against RHP vs .290 against LHP).
Gray is coming off back-to-back solid outings, and there are signs he can continue that success this week against Pittsburgh and Washington. Owners will likely want to take Matz over Gray this week, but if Matz is already snagged then Gray should be a more than adequate consolation prize.
Week 9 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Lance Lynn, TEX - 19% owned
Probable opponents: @ SEA, vs KCR
Lynn just might be the hottest under-the-radar pitcher in fantasy right now. He is 4-1 over his last five starts, he has recorded three quality starts in a row and has earned four in his last five starts and he's averaging just over seven strikeouts a game and has a 3.18 ERA over that stretch. Here's the best part though: he's already taken on this week's slated opponents during his hot five-game stretch.
Two of Lynn's last five starts have come against Seattle, and in those starts he has recorded two wins, two quality starts, a 1.93 ERA and averaged 10 strikeouts a game. Before his 11-strikeout performance against Seattle his last time out, Lynn held the Royals to just one run over seven innings while striking out five to earn both the win and the quality start. At the risk of jinxing myself, I don't think I can see any way Lynn doesn't end up the top pitcher out of this week's list. Add him in all leagues.
Trevor Richards, MIA - 12% owned
Probable opponents: vs SFG, @ SDP
And here is our third and final pitcher making his second appearance of the year on this column. Richards has been a little up and down this season, but overall he's been able to put up some solid outings. In five of his 10 starts he has earned a quality start, and in the month of May, Richards is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA. While he might not sound exciting on his own, what owners should look at this week is his two struggling opponents.
While the Giants have managed a 5-5 record over their last 10 games, they are averaging just 3.5 runs per game while also averaging 9.8 strikeouts and hitting .211. Meanwhile, the Padres are 4-6 over their last 10 games and are averaging 3.3 runs and 10 strikeouts while hitting .219. All this points to Richards having a good chance of ending up with a couple of quality starts that could see a lot of strikeouts. If Lynn is already owned, pick up Richards and you should do pretty well this week.
Jose Urena, MIA - 5% owned
Probable opponents: @ WAS, @ SDP
What's this? Another Marlins pitcher on the list? Well guess what: as much as Braves fans hate him, Urena has been one of the better starting pitchers in the league as of late. After starting the season 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA, Urena is 2-3 over his last seven starts with a 2.80 ERA and six quality starts. In his last three starts along against the Cubs, Rays and Tigers, Urena has averaged 6 1/3 innings and 1.3 runs per game with three quality starts and a 1.89 ERA.
The one downside to Urena's value is he's not going to get you a lot of strikeouts. He recorded just 10 strikeouts over his last three starts, and he currently owns a 6.0 K/9 this year. But his potential for quality starts and a low ERA definitely make him a must add in leagues with quality starts. I've already written about Washington and San Diego's offense in this column, but I will add that Urena has already faced the Nationals once this season. In that outing, Urena earned his first win of the season, allowing two earned runs over six innings while striking out four. If you find yourself choosing between Marlins pitchers this week, grab Urena over Richards.
