Triston Casas: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

September 6, 2022

Is Triston Casas a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Casas's 2022 fantasy value.

September call-ups might not be as extensive as they once were, but that hasn't stopped a variety of prospects from being called up in the past few days. The latest debut is first baseman Triston Casas of the Boston Red Sox, a name that Boston fans have been screaming for since Bobby Dalbec proved he wasn't a long-term solution. He collected an infield single for his first MLB hit last Sunday.

Casas was the 26th overall selection in the 2018 First Year Player's Draft and enters the league with a fantastic prospect pedigree, ranking 14th overall per FanGraphs and 26th per MLB.com. The 22-year-old has flashed an outstanding eye at every level and is said to possess excellent power potential, though that potential hasn't been fully realized on the farm.

With Dalbec optioned to the minors in a corresponding roster move and bizarre trade deadline acquisition Eric Hosmer on the IL, the stage appears set for Casas to receive everyday playing time for the rest of the season. Will that matter to fantasy managers? Let's find out!

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The Scouting Report on Triston Casas

Considering the lofty rankings cited above, you might expect Casas to have a ton of standout tools that would make fantasy managers salivate. That's not really his profile though. FanGraphs gives him 50-grade hit and power right now, with the hit tool improving to 55 and the power to 60 in the future. His raw power is 60 both now and in the future, which is good but not great as a carrying tool.

MLB Pipeline is higher on his power with a 65 grade while concurring on a 55-grade hit tool. His scouting report notes a "naturally long, left-handed swing" that adds some swing-and-miss to his game though, making Casas a potential batting average risk in his first exposure to the Show.

Casas also can't run at all, receiving 30-grade speed on both scouting reports cited above with FanGraphs expecting it to decline to 20 down the road. Not only does this mean that Casas will never help fantasy managers with stolen bases, but he may struggle to post strong BABIPs at the big league level.

The MiLB Resume of Triston Casas

Casas was reportedly one of the standouts at Boston's alternate training site in 2020, so we'll begin this analysis with his 2021 season. He hit .284/.395/.484 with 13 HR and six steals over 329 PAs for Double-A (Portland), with his 14.9 BB% standing out against a 19.1 K%. He recorded a .323 BABIP despite a lack of speed and a 16.3 LD%, while his 40.9 FB% made good on his 15.3% HR/FB. Don't get excited about the steals: it's more than half of his MiLB career total.

Portland had a 93 HR factor from 2017 to 2019, suggesting that Casas's raw power was better than his HR/FB might suggest. It posted a 101 BABIP factor though, suggesting that he had a little help keeping his batting average above .280.

The performance earned Casas a brief taste of Triple-A (Worcester) to close out the campaign where he hit .242/.381/.485 with a homer in 42 PAs. His eye was again his signature skill with a 19 BB% that matched his 19 K%, but his BABIP declined to .280 despite his LD% increasing to 23.1. His FB% remained strong at 42.3, but his HR/FB of 9.1 failed to impress. His SwStr% also increased by a full tick, from 9.5% at Double-A to 10.5% at Triple-A.

Casas returned to Worcester to begin the 2022 season, hitting .273/.382/.481 with 11 long balls in 317 PAs. A high ankle sprain cost Casas about a month, explaining the low PA total. His eye remained elite with a 14.5 BB%, but his K% surged to 21.5 while his 14.4 SwStr% was nearly four full ticks higher than his previous year's mark. We know that Casas had good plate discipline, so it's fair to assume that he was missing a bunch of pitches in the strike zone. That is a really bad sign for his major league readiness.

Casas's power numbers also disappointed with a full season pace of about 20, largely because his FB% declined to 32.8. Many of the lost flies contributed to his 30.8 LD% and .323 BABIP, but it's still discouraging to see a future slugger with a FB% that low. On the bright side, his 16.9% HR/FB represented a significant improvement over what he did at Worcester in 2021.

Worcester's ballpark opened in 2021, so we don't have park factors for it yet.

The Final Verdict on Triston Casas

Casas hit sixth in his big league debut, a role that offers little fantasy value by itself. He flashed above-average raw power on the farm but it hasn't been elite and he sometimes struggles to access it in games. His outstanding eye is an asset, but his K% could be higher than expected at the highest level because of the swing-and-miss in his game. He'll need to run a high BABIP to help fantasy managers in batting average, but he doesn't have a clear line drive swing or the speed to turn grounders into hits.

Casas is currently rostered in 13% of Yahoo! leagues, and that feels about right. He's an easy add if you're looking for OBP or play in a deep enough format where playing time is valuable, but we're probably looking at a .250ish hitter with batting average downside and 20-25 HR over a full season. Most managers can do better at first base, so Casas is a Chump for 2022.

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