RADIO
While we all spend an absurd time preparing for our fantasy football, the championships are won on the waiver wire. Even the greatest of drafters have far more misses than they have hits. It's because we're attempting to predict the future. However, once the season starts and we start making waiver claims, we no longer need to guess. We have actual data to go off of, which can provide a real advantage to the fantasy managers willing to pay attention to it. In the first few weeks, we're still somewhat shooting blind.
That means we must be careful not to overreact to outcomes for one data point. Week 1 always produces random and unpredictable storylines. Those things happen every week, but once we get into Week 5 or Week 8, we have other data points to pour cold water on those outlier outcomes. In Week 1, we have no such information. This series will focus on the players that fantasy managers should be cutting, hanging onto, and trying to sell high on. We'll also identify players whose values are dropping and those whose spot on your fantasy rosters should be on the hot seat.
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Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 2?
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons - 63.0% Rostered
We have some stats to back this one up, but this is all about vibes and the eye test. Cousins didn't look right. Cousins took just 4.0% of his snaps under center. The Falcons didn't call one single play-action pass. This had been a staple of Cousins' teams in Minnesota. He tore his Achilles last November, and he's attempting to return well before the one-year timeframe we typically associate with that kind of injury. When you combine that with his age and his already lacking mobility even before the injury, you have some issues.
3rd-and-15. No pressure. Time to rifle this in there. Look at the follow thru. It's his right achilles that was torn. Can't even get his cleats into the turf to drive the ball.
Take a second to watch this. pic.twitter.com/r34hyOzFLv
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 9, 2024
He finished with 16 completions on 26 pass attempts. He had 155 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and struggled to push the ball downfield. That could be due to his inability to push off his plant foot, which was the ankle that suffered the injury. Cousins was under pressure quite a bit in Week 1, and while most matchups won't be as difficult as their Week 1 opponent, he struggled even when he had a clean pocket.
Kirk Cousins Week 1 when NOT under pressure
- 10-of-17
- 80 yds, 1 TD
- 90.3 rating, 58.8% completion
- 4.9 air yards per attemptHe won't face TJ Watt weekly and first game back - but the low air yards when not under pressure paired with the eye test ... concerning
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 9, 2024
As long as Cousins can stay healthy in this state, he'll likely get better as the season rolls along, but I'd rather have Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. All three passers have a lower rostered percentage than Cousins.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 2?
Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers - 73.7% Rostered
This backfield will likely remain a committee to some extent, but I'm already over Edwards. J.K. Dobbins out-snapped Edwards 33 to 24 and had more carries than Edwards with 11 to his 10. However, Dobbins ran almost three times as many routes (17 to 6) and had three times as many targets (3 to 1). That should have been expected based on Edwards' skillset and his history as a pass-catcher. The bigger problem is that Dobbins handled the three short-yardage situations and was the one who found the end zone.
If Dobbins is the team's preferred and primary pass-catching back like he was in Week 1 and becomes the team's No. 1 option near the end zone, Edwards will have virtually no weekly ceiling. He looks like he will get eight to 12 carries between the 20s. Since Edwards is not a home run hitter and doesn't catch passes, he's a boring option at running back. He's likely on your bench as a backup option based on where Edwards was drafted. In that sense, I'd rather roster someone like Bucky Irving, Tank Bigsby, or Jaylen Wright. Irving and Bigsby offer the same standalone value but have significantly more upside.
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 2?
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers -58.1% Rostered
I do not doubt that Bryce Young will be better than he was in Week 1, but what does that look like? Cutting Thielen has more to do with Young and the Carolina offense than anything specific with Thielen. However, with Diontae Johnson's acquisition, Thielen will no longer get peppered by Young as he did last year. Second-round rookie Xavier Legette out-targeted Thielen on Sunday. The question fantasy managers must ask themselves is this: "What is Thielen's weekly ceiling?"
Bryce Young's catchable throw rate in Week 1 was 53% by @FantasyPtsData charting (worst among 30 QBs, pending MNF)
This is after no quarterback had a lower catchable throw rate than Young (69.7%) last season
Diontae Johnson is still in QB jail
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 9, 2024
If he's competing with Johnson and Legette for targets from Young on a bottom-two offense, fantasy managers can undoubtedly find a receiver with more weekly upside. Thielen might be good for four to six targets for a few catches and five to seven points weekly, but that won't win any fantasy matchups. I'd rather roster Jalen McMillan or Ja'Lynn Polk, two rookies with far more upside than Thielen.
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills - 53.0% Rostered
If you want to argue Samuel was limited because of the injury he had dealt with, that's a fair argument. There's probably some truth to that, as well. However, his utilization was still terrible. Even if it gets better, it looks pretty clear that he's unlikely to carve out a big enough role for fantasy managers to feel confident putting him into their starting lineup.
Josh Allen dropped back 30 times yesterday. WR/TE routes run:
1. Keon Coleman 27
2. Dalton Kincaid 25
3. Khalil Shakir 21
4. Mack Hollins 20
5. Dawson Knox 13
6. Curtis Samuel 9
7. MVS 4— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 9, 2024
Samuel finished sixth in terms of routes run this past weekend. The team gave Keon Coleman the responsibility of a No. 1 receiver. Dalton Kincaid had elite utilization for a tight end. Khalil Shakir looks locked in as their primary slot receiver. That likely leaves Samuel as a gadget player. That kind of role rarely has enough volume to be fantasy-relevant week to week. Samuel was also drafted as a backup, and like Thielen, I'd rather roster McMillan and Polk. Samuel looks pretty far down the Bills' depth chart.
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 2?
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears - 42.4% Rostered
Week 1 could not have gone any worse for Kmet. Gerald Everett out-snapped Kmet, 34 to 27, and ran significantly more routes. Everett had 21 routes run, and Kmet had just 12. Nothing more needs to be said. Kmet is the No. 2 tight end for the Bears. With D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, the path to enough target volume, even as the starting tight end, was questionable. We know that Kmet is the No. 2 tight end, so fantasy managers should run away from Kmet as fast as possible.
Uh-Oh...
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers - 66.6% Rostered
Going into the 2024 season, fantasy managers knew we would see a brand new Chargers offense with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman installed as the new head coach and offensive coordinator. That was visible in their Week 1 win against the Raiders. Los Angeles leaned on their rushing attack as Herbert attempted just 26 passes for 144 yards and one touchdown. Some of that was propelled by the fact that the Raiders never really challenged the Chargers, scoring just 10 points.
NFL Week 1 neutral pass rates pic.twitter.com/AZqmzPscem
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 9, 2024
However, the Chargers still had a bottom-half neutral pass rate, and Herbert averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt. There will be better days ahead for Herbert, but he won't have the volume he's had the previous seasons. The team also downgraded at receiver quite a bit. His value will likely drop in the following weeks if we continue to see a conservative, run-first offense. If fantasy managers wanted to switch out Herbert for Mayfield, Geno Smith, or Stafford, I wouldn't blame them.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos - 89.8% Rostered
Williams looked like he would be "the" guy for the Denver offense throughout training camp. He is two years removed from his devastating knee injury, giving hope that some of his efficiency from his strong rookie season would return. Rookie Bo Nix also looked great in the preseason, giving fantasy managers hope that Denver's offense could be better than expected. You combine all that with the history of Sean Payton hyper-targeting their running backs, and Williams was being floated as a potential league-winner.
#Broncos Week 1 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Jaleel McLaughlin - 15
Javonte Williams - 10
Audric Estime - 2— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 9, 2024
None of that came to fruition in Week 1. Williams ran 21 routes to Jaleel McLaughlin's 15, but McLaughlin still out-targeted Williams, six to two. That shouldn't be entirely surprising, but what was unexpected is the fact that McLaughlin got one additional carry than Williams, finishing with nine to Williams' eight. There's no reason to drop Williams, but that was a lousy Week 1 performance from a utilization standpoint.
RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans - 85.6% Rostered
Spears had an up-and-coming rookie season, and then Tennessee let Derrick Henry go in free agency, increasing Spears' offseason value. Tennessee eventually signed Tony Pollard, but he struggled in 2023 as Dallas' feature back. Throughout the offseason, new head coach Brian Callahan talked about Spears and Pollard as though they were interchangeable and that this backfield would be close to a 50/50 split. With that coach speak, betting on the younger player who wasn't switching teams seemed like a good bet, but Week 1 obliterated that.
#Titans Week 1 RB Usage
- Tony Pollard: 62% snaps, 16 carries, 14 routes, 4 carries (94 yds, TD)
- Tyjae Spears: 44% snaps, 4 carries, 15 routes, 4 targets (32 yds)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 8, 2024
Spears was solidly out-snapped by Pollard. But that wasn't even the biggest problem. Pollard had four times as many carries and three times the number of scrimmage yards. Pollard was just a lot more productive and looked the part. Spears doesn't look like the 1A; he looks more like the change-of-pace back. He shouldn't be dropped, but his fantasy value has fallen slightly after a disappointing Week 1.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans - 82.2% Rostered
Hopkins could very well be on the hot seat. He suffered a knee injury during training camp, which was reported as an MCL sprain. However, before Week 1, fantasy managers discovered the injury was a little worse than that.
#Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (questionable, knee) is set to play Sunday at Chicago, per source, though how much he plays is uncertain and could come down to pain management.
Hopkins revealed to reporters this week that he’s fighting through an MCL tear.
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 7, 2024
He's 32 years old, and now he's dealing with an MCL tear, which is far worse than a sprain (obviously). He could be knocked out any week early, making him almost impossible to trust. He played just 17 snaps in Week 1, which ranked fourth among Titans' receivers behind Calvin Ridley, Treylon Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He also ranked fourth in route runs and finished with just one target.
On the Hot Seat
RB Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders - 87.6% Rostered
Washington got its butt kicked this past weekend, a game script that fit perfectly with Ekeler's skillset at this point of his career. He played 31 snaps to Brain Robinson Jr.'s 33, an almost 50/50 split. Despite that, he received just two carries but did finish with four targets. That was the same as Robinson. Keeping him on a fantasy roster will be hard if this is the best fantasy managers can expect from Ekeler.
#Commanders Week 1 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Brian Robinson - 16
Austin Ekeler - 6— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 9, 2024
Since Washington will likely lose quite a bit, Ekeler is a good bet for six to eight points per week. Robinson is the sure-fire goal-line back, limiting Ekeler's weekly upside. If you need a viable bench running back to throw into your starting lineup in a pinch, Ekeler qualifies, but it's hard to be excited about his prospects after Week 1.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals - 78.3% Rostered
Brown was always the long-term play. Fantasy managers hope Brown can carve out a more prominent role than Zack Moss as the season progresses. However, given the news out of training camp, it seemed as though Brown might be the 1A. That could not have been further from the truth after Week 1. Moss played 33 snaps to Brown's 17. Even more concerning was that Moss out-targeted Brown four to three.
#Bengals Week 1 RB Usage
- Zack Moss: 65% snaps, 9 carries, 13 routes, 4 targets (61 yds, TD)
- Chase Brown: 33% snaps, 3 carries, 12 routes, 3 targets (23 routes)Moss had more pass game work, goal line work. He is the RB to start in this backfield
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 8, 2024
Fantasy managers can understandably hold onto Brown, hoping his role will grow, but Brown cannot be started now. If this utilization continues for another week or two, Brown will likely find himself on the actual cut list.
Hold On
RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers - 86.6% Rostered
Warren didn't play much, but he suffered a hamstring injury in the preseason and was likely still affected by that. Warren got just two carries and played just 32% of the snaps. He didn't have an injury designation but was limited on Wednesday. Fantasy managers should assume that he wasn't 100%.
However, the acquisition of Cordarelle Patterson could end up being a negative for Warren, so that will be something to watch in the coming weeks as Warren gets back to full health. Given how good he was last season, Warren gets a Week 1 pass after his preseason hamstring injury.
WR Mike Williams, New York Jets - 69.1% Rostered
Williams barely played last night and did not end up registering a single catch. Some fantasy managers may overreact to this, but you never drafted him for Week 1 anyway. He's returning from a torn ACL and was said to be on a snap count before the game. He finished as a top-24 in half-PPR PPG the past three years. Given his ADP this year, he should be firmly entrenched on your bench, giving you ample time to let Williams work his way back to 100% health. Stay the course, give him time, and hopefully, he can settle into being Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 target-earner behind Garrett Wilson.
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