RADIO
It's not often that final sparring for a Major Championship is held at a venue scheduled to host that very same Major the following year, but that's exactly what golf fans have in store this week in Charlotte. The site of 2025's PGA Championship: Quail Hollow has long been lauded as one of the game's most demanding tests, and for the second straight season, the best players in the world will congregate in the Queen City for a $20 million prize pool.
Of course, Quail Hollow has also been the launching pad for a few of the game's biggest names: as Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Anthony Kim, Max Homa, and Wyndham Clark have all lifted their first PGA title on this iconic 18th green. Although its new elevated status does take some of the potential Cinderella stories out of this week's equation, the absence of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler could open the door for one of the PGA Tour's marquee names to establish himself as the Texan's main challenger.
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Quail Hollow Club and the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship!
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The Golf Course
Quail Hollow Club - Par 71; 7,558 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Wyndham Clark (-19) over Xander Schauffele
- 2022 - Tournament played at TPC Potomac
- 2021 - Rory McIlroy (-10) over Abraham Ancer
- 2020 - Tournament canceled due to the COVID pandemic
- 2019 - Max Homa (-15) over Joel Dahmen
- 2018 - Jason Day (-12) over Nick Watney & Aaron Wise
Quail Hollow by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 31.2 yards; 11th narrowest on the PGA Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 296.6 yards; fifth highest on Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 52.6%; fourth lowest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.32; 12th lowest on Tour
- Rough Penalty -- 0.19; 11th lowest on Tour
- Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.33; sixth lowest on Tour
- Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 4.3%; 14th highest on Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.020); seventh easiest on Tour
Tipping out at nearly 7,600 yards as a Par 71, Quail Hollow stands as the longest par-adjusted golf course on the PGA Tour. 12 of the 18 holes on property measure over 450 yards, and the straight-line nature of most of these tee shots means that players will have no reason to take a positional, club-down approach. Much like we've come to expect from many modern-day Major Championship venues, the operative strategy off of the tee at Quail Hollow is to hit it long enough to take the sting out of the multitude of 495-yard par fours.
Last year, every one of the top ten performers in SG: OTT averaged at least 310 yards per drive, and only two of those ten (Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay) managed to hit over 60% of their fairways for the week. This isn't to say that players like Viktor Hovland (+4.9 Strokes Gained: OTT; 53.6% Fairway Percentage) or Gary Woodland (+4.6; 50.0%), were that far off of the pace set by the field average, as Quail Hollow does feature some of the most difficult fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. But when you do see players like Wyndham Clark, Adam Scott, and Jimmy Walker attain top finishes (and positive SG: OTT ratings), on the back of driving accuracy percentages of 39, 41, and 44% respectively, it's difficult to make the argument for any driving profile besides elite length.
I do expect things to play quite a bit differently 12 months from now, as back in 2017, Quail Hollow featured one of the highest missed fairway penalties in recent Major Championship history (0.44 strokes). However, at Wells Fargo, tournament organizers won't be showing their true hand in regards to the peril that awaits off-line tee shots. Over the last five Wells Fargo iterations, Quail has never ranked inside the top half on Tour in Missed Fairway Penalty or Rough Penalty, and the 2" ryegrass rough from this week's tournament fact sheet isn't likely to break that trend any time soon. Driving distance and historic performance on other narrow, driver-heavy golf courses will make up the crux of my off-the-tee modeling.
Quail Hollow by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 60.2%; Ninth lowest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.015); 11th toughest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 200+ yards (accounts for 31.2% of historical approach shots)
- 175-200 yards (22.6%)
- 150-175 yards (19.6%)
For my contrarians out there looking for players residing outside of the typical blueprint, there has been one other profile that has found repeated, albeit more muted, success here at Quail Hollow. Over the last three Wells Fargo iterations, names like Abraham Ancer, Joel Dahmen, Jason Dufner, and Corey Conners have thrust themselves onto the leaderboards on the back of a more accuracy-intensive style off of the tee -- and, more importantly, elite long-iron play.
As you'd probably expect, given its course specs, Quail Hollow isn't a venue where players can expect to have a bevy of wedge opportunities. Only 24.5% of approach shots last year came from inside of 150 yards -- nearly 15 percentage points lower than the Tour Average, and by contrast, over 55% of approach shots last year came from 175 yards and out. If you don't possess the requisite length we discussed in the section above, you'd better have a stellar long-iron game to keep pace from tee to green.
In fact, in the three Wells Fargo Championships held at Quail Hollow since 2019, only one top-five finisher (Rickie Fowler) managed to attain that finish without gaining at least 3.6 strokes on Approach. Only Denny McCarthy, Bryson DeChambeau, and Bubba Watson (each with elite weapons in their own right) have finished inside the top 20 whilst losing strokes to the field with their iron play. Proximity/Strokes Gained splits from beyond 150 yards will be the leading individual element in my process this week.
Quail Hollow by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 54.9%; 2.7% below Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.013); 15th easiest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.006); 11th toughest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (+0.023); 16th easiest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.006); 16th toughest on Tour
Around the green play may be the least correlative stat to historic leaderboards here at Quail Hollow. Still, with green in regulation rates expected to sit in the high-50s to low-60s, it's difficult to argue that short-game stats have no place in your weekly modeling. Last year, 12 of the top 13 players on the leaderboard gained at least 0.3 shots for the week around the greens. Looking back through Quail Hollow's recent champions (Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Justin Thomas), it's difficult to pick out one you wouldn't trust with a pressure-packed greenside pitch.
Where short-game skill gets mitigated this week is in the relatively unexacting demands of Quail Hollow's greenside surrounds. For a course that routinely ranks in the top five in scoring difficulty on Tour, Quail Hollow isn't exactly known for a diabolical set of chipping areas. Especially as the rough only projects to sit in the 2" range this week, the toughest test of short-game acumen is likely to come off of the tightly mown ryegrass fairways. However, when stacked up against the likes of Augusta National, TPC Sawgrass, or Riviera, the degree of difficulty this week takes a sizeable downturn.
As such, I don't see Quail Hollow as a venue where you need a short game reminiscent of Seve Ballesteros to conquer these greenside surroundings. Last year, only Tommy Fleetwood and Brendon Todd finished inside the top 10 on both the Wells Fargo leaderboard and in the season-long SG: ARG rankings -- however, nine of the other eleven top 10 finishers ranked somewhere between 25th and 95th on Tour. That's all I'm personally asking of my player pool: somewhere from gently to comfortably above the Tour average.
Quail Hollow by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size: 6,578 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Poa Trivialis overseed
- Stimpmeter: 12
- 3-Putt Percentage: 3.8% (0.8% above Tour Average)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.010); sixth toughest on Tour
While Quail Hollow's layout is far too demanding to be called a "putting contest," recent history here does suggest that you must putt well to win. Each of the last five Champions here, dating back to 2017, has gained at least seven strokes on these greens, and only four players in that time (6.8%) have managed to finish inside the top 10 whilst losing strokes to the field with their flat sticks.
While the agronomy at Quail Hollow has shifted from a pure Bermuda to an overseeded poa in recent years, the common thread of these greens has always been speed. Quail Hollow features some of the fastest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour, and from a lag-putting standpoint, only Augusta National has made it harder to putt from outside of 15 feet.
Of course, ball-striking remains at the top of my priority list when weighing potential bets/DFS plays this week. However, I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice not to look into some long-term putting splits -- particularly on faster, over-seeded complexes like TPC Sawgrass or Innisbrook. I'll be looking especially hard at Approach Putt Performance, 3-Putt Avoidance, and overall putting acumen on greens with comparably fast speeds.
Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):
- Elite Mid/Long Iron play -- specifically looking at SG/Shot + Proximity splits from >150 yards
- Driving Distance (as well as a player's historic acumen on similarly driver-heavy courses with narrow fairways: Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, etc.)
- Historic Putting splits on lightning-fast greens -- Specifically those with Bermuda base turf and a poa overseed (Sawgrass, Innisbrook, Scottsdale, etc.)
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Ludvig Åberg
Ludvig Aberg with a DART at the 18th to close out his round with a birdie to get just 1 shot back of the leaders going into the weekend at the #RBCHeritage🇸🇪pic.twitter.com/PvAoBgVlKv
— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) April 19, 2024
At a golf course that has witnessed the ascensions of Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Anthony Kim, and Wyndham Clark, is there a better venue on the PGA Tour to crown Ludvig Åberg as one of the game's preeminent stars? In just 11 months as a professional, Åberg has already established himself as one of the game's most metronomic entities, logging two wins to just one missed cut and a whopping 19 top 25s in just 24 professional starts.
Metrically, it's easy to see why Ludvig has been so solid in the professional ranks, as even whilst cast alongside the best players on the PGA Tour, it's difficult to poke many holes in his profile. Since coming on Tour, he ranks in the top half of this field in each of the four strokes gained categories, all while leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee, ranking third in total ball-striking, and second in Bogey Avoidance.
It'll likely take more than an RSM Classic and a European Masters' Title in Switzerland for Ludvig to get the respect he deserves as a legitimate top-five player on the planet, but I see no reason to doubt that the inevitable breakthrough is coming very soon. He's already recorded some of his most impressive tee-to-green performances at venues like Wentworth, Torrey Pines, and Augusta National, so dismiss any notion that Ludvig is somehow better suited for shorter courses. I'm wagering his next win comes at a venue more fitting of his pedigree.
Wyndham Clark
A dart when it matters most!
Wyndham Clark goes right at it for a look at birdie. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/epCN9JlhTU
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) March 17, 2024
Following up what I expect to be the most popular bet of the week with the defending champion here at the Wells Fargo isn't exactly painting the most imaginative picture, but in a 70-man field, on a golf course that seems to relish in exposing those lacking the requisite skillset, this isn't a week I feel you need to be particularly creative in your card construction. If I do indeed go down the road of double-stacking the third and sixth-best players on the planet, there won't be a ton of room left in my weekly budget, but that's okay. Through the years at Quail Hollow (particularly since its 2017 redesign), we've seen nothing but blue-chippers and ascendant stars lift this trophy at the end of the Green Mile. I see no reason why that pattern should end.
Like Ludvig, Wyndham Clark has had a few marquee titles snatched away at the hands of a virtuosic Scottie Scheffler performance. So, as Scottie takes his leave in preparation for fatherhood (and the year's second Major), it would stand to reason that Wyndham should leap to the top of the pack in terms of players most likely to benefit from the World No. 1's absence.
Wyndham has struggled with a few more week-t0-week inconsistencies compared to his peers at the top of the World Rankings, but with three wins, two runners-up, and two third-place finishes in "elevated" events over the last 12 months, there is seemingly nobody in the game that's proven more capable of rising to the occasion when the table stakes are at their highest. In his last start, Clark stormed back from an opening 72 at Harbour Town with rounds of 66, 66, and 65 to record a third-place finish at the RBC Heritage, but it at the Tour's most demanding ballparks where his elite combination of length, short game, and lag putting give him a decisive edge.
Quail Hollow's 7,600-yard routing is as perfectly suited as venues get to Clark's profile, as not only does Wyndham lead this field in Driving Distance, but he also ranks 2nd in SG: Putting on fast/lightning-fast green complexes and recorded the best approach week of his entire career here last year (+8.9). Like Ludvig, I'm placing heavy consideration on Wyndham next week at Valhalla, so why not double down on each of them here in their penultimate start beforehand? I don't believe the two handicaps are all that dissimilar.
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