Sam Bradford - 2018 Fantasy Football Sleeper

August 10, 2018

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Sam Bradford is a fantasy football sleeper and ADP value for the 2018 season. Leonard Francis breaks down his value in fantasy drafts.

There’s this Discover commercial where a lady calls their customer service department to inquire about these new social security alerts and ends up speaking to herself. The gist is that you’ll receive as good of service from their customer service representatives as you’d give to yourself. Not a bad marketing campaign, in theory, until you realize that if she’s calling herself she should have already had the information to begin with. Making the call pointless. Or, taking it a bit less literally, you realize that you’re a jerk and the last thing you need is to have a jerk on the other end of the phone after you’ve dealt with a robot who misinterpreted 98% of what you said for the 10 minutes leading up to the jerk encounter. Anyway, the Discover version of the chick goes on to describe how their customers receive an alert if their social security number is at risk and the regular self version is all impressed by “being in the know”. On cue, the regular lady's dog approaches her face and an alert pops up, “Just drank from toilet.”

Like most ads, it might draw a chuckle or two the first time you see it, but by the 50^th time (or 3^rd adult beverage), you’ll likely be overanalyzing the hell out of it and thinking things like "what would happen if this were fantasy football?!" Well, if someone just so happened to take these alerts and apply them to our fantasy football drafts, hovering over Sam Bradford’s name – God forbid actually queuing him up – would likely result in 96,000 pop-ups in a matter of three seconds. Something like the old days of Netscape before Adblocker.

2018 Sleeper - Sam Bradford

“WHY?!” “The Cardinals traded up in this year’s draft to take Josh Rosen!” “Arizona’s Pythagorean Win Expectation from last season put them as a 6-win team; they won 8 games. That two-game surplus is the second-highest in the league and suggests they over-performed in 2017 and are due for regression!” “Him wearing that OU-ish, cardinal red won’t take him back to his glory days!” “Two of the Cardinals’ top five receivers from a season ago are on different teams (John and Jaron Brown) while a third (Jermaine Gresham) tore his Achilles tendon last season and isn’t guaranteed to see the field to start the season!” “IT’S SAM EFFING BRADFORD!!!” I could go on all night. You’d probably get that damned, spinning rainbow wheel (or the dreaded blue screen of death if you favor Windows) by the time it’s all said and done. But, it’s really not all that bad in the desert.

For starters, barring injury, Bradford is going to be the Cardinals starting QB to begin the season. I get it, Arizona drafted Rosen and he’s their quarterback of the future. But, do you really think that first-time NFL Head Coach, Steve Wilks, is going to put his newly inked, multi-million dollar dream job at risk by putting the ball in the hands of a 21-year old, rookie QB without his hand first being forced?! Now seems like a good time to point out that Bradford has started all 16 games just twice over the course of his eight-year career and expecting a third is even crazier than thinking Rosen starts week one. However, Bradford’s 257.5 passing yards per game since 2015 put him 13^th among QBs over that stretch (ahead of guys like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson) and his 2.2 TD/INT ratio also ranks 13^th (among QBs with at least 1,000 attempts over that same timeframe). In other words, when he plays, he’s pretty damn good and he'll get a chance to fail before we see Rosen... If Wilks wants to keep his job.

I mean, even the guy’s bad stats suggest he’ll be a great fit in the Cardinals offense. Since Bradford entered the league in 2010, 44 QBs have attempted at least 1,000 passes - Sam’s 6.6 yards per attempt rank 40^th of those 44 (5^th lowest).  From another angle, his 10.6 yards per completion since entering the league rank 43^rd of those 44 QBs with at least 1,000 pass attempts (2^nd lowest). For the laymen, he’s worse than the likes of Kyle Orton, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and practically every other QB who’s played in the NFL since 2010 in these two categories and his passes tend to cover less distance than yours, mine, and/or Uncle Rico’s. Yikes. Thing is, being a short to intermediate passer isn’t necessarily a bad thing given the Cardinals roster. In fact, it may be beneficial.

Larry Fitzgerald will be 35 years old by the time the season kicks off, and while he’s still ridiculously productive – and one of the greatest WRs I’ve ever seen – his 12.6 yards per reception since entering the NFL in 2004 rank 61^st of the 97 receivers who caught at least 300 balls during that time period. Losing a step (or two) isn’t exactly ideal. Quick exercise: think back on how many deep bombs you remember seeing Fitz bring in over his Cardinals career. He’s been in the league 14 years and about five-ish come to mind off the top of my head. Even the most avid of Cardinals fans would struggle to come up with 10. Over those 14 seasons, Fitzgerald has finished in the Top-10 in yards per reception just once (cracking the Top-20 twice – including the aforementioned Top-10 performance). He's a possession receiver who thrives, and always has thrived, on the intermediate/short routes and is catered to exactly what Bradford does best. Fitz has also caught an average of 108.3 passes over the past three seasons with Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, and Blaine Gabbert throwing him the rock... I think Sam will be alright.

Also, please don’t let the wrist injury cause you to forget about David Johnson. It was his wrist. Not a knee, not an ankle, not a hip, not a foot, and in 2016 - his only full NFL season - Johnson led the NFL in targets, receptions, and receiving yards at the RB position. Sure, we really won’t know what to expect from this offense with the regime change until we see it, but in the two seasons Danny Woodhead played under Mike McCoy in San Diego (and played more than three games) he finished 2^nd and 1^st on the team in receptions. McCoy is the new offensive coordinator in Arizona and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see DJ employing a Woodhead-ish role. Especially considering Johnson saw the field for just one game a season ago and their number one objective should be to do everything they possibly can to keep him on the field in 2018 and beyond. But even if this offense isn’t structured to capitalize on Johnson’s pass-catching ability, he’s just too damn good to not put in work regardless. A little over 30% of his touches have resulted in first downs since entering the league, and since the wrist injury isn't likely to impact his vision, lateral agility, or speed, the ball + his hands should equal fantasy gold for Bradford. Whether that be directly or indirectly. As a matter of fact, give me (old, washed up, former athlete who’s never played QB and can’t throw) Fitz and DJ, and I’ll guarantee you that I somehow manage to come up with 1,000 passing yards. If I don’t die first, of course, but given the additions to their offensive line I kinda like my odds.

It won’t take much for this line to perform at a level better than last season’s, but given the talent (if healthy), Bradford shouldn’t spend much time on his back. Right Guard Justin Pugh and Right Tackle Andre Smith to go with a healthy Mike Iupati (he played in one game a season ago) all figure to help shore up this o-line, keep Bradford upright, and provide him with adequate time in the pocket to make his reads (a.k.a. find Larry/David). Don’t curb the enthusiasm. And, because no Sunday is complete without the cherry on top, the Cards drafted former Texas A&M playmaker/slot receiver Christian Kirk - who should have an immediate impact – while boasting a solid defensive unit (on paper) which had 21 takeaways a season ago and should gift Bradford with some short fields to work with over the course of the season.

All told, given his ADP of 224 (33^rd QB of the board), Bradford is easily the most slept-on of all the potential starting QBs heading into 2018. And, while a lot can change now that the preseason is underway, do yourself a favor and keep Sam on your radar. Given his skill set, and the situation he now finds himself in, he has all of the potential to put up some solid fantasy numbers this season and we could be looking at an absolute steal/waiver wire gem by the time this one is in the books.

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