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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 3 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Texas.
Week 3 College Football Playoff Projections
We didn’t see a lot of big-time matchups in Week 2 of the college football season, though one upset has led to a shift in the projected playoff field. What was that upset? Read on to see what the 12-team CFP field might look like after Week 2.
This week, we say goodbye to two schools. The Group of Five spot is no longer Tulane’s for reasons that have nothing to do with the Green Wave, while Clemson is out because the Tigers simply don’t look like a playoff team after trailing Troy into the third quarter this week. So, who replaces those two teams? Here’s this week’s College Football Playoff projection.
12. South Florida
Last Week: Not Ranked
Honestly, I should have had South Florida in here last week after how the team demolished Boise State in its season opener, but there was some thought that maybe that was just a really bad game from the Broncos, so I gave a very talented Tulane team the No. 12 seed.
Then the Bulls went out and knocked off a then Top 25 Florida team 18-16 this week. Byrum Brown looks like one of the nation’s best dual-threat quarterbacks, and the Bulls are probably good enough at this point that losing to Miami this upcoming Saturday won’t knock them out of this spot unless they’re just completely uncompetitive in the game.
11. Iowa State
Last Week: 10th
Until Iowa State loses, I’m keeping them in as the Big 12 champions, but it should be noted that Utah has been playing some very good football.
The Cyclones defeated in-state rival Iowa this week in the CyHawk game, taking a 16-13 victory. It wasn’t Rocco Becht’s best game, but the Cyclones’ defense held Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski to 83 yards and a pick as Iowa State eked out the victory to move to 3-0.
10. Notre Dame
Last Week: 11th
Notre Dame moves up a spot after the bye week solely because this is about predicting what the committee will do, and Iowa State winning both its FBS games by only three points makes me think the committee will be fairly down on the potential Big 12 champs.
Notre Dame is 0-1 after a loss to Miami. The team faces a must-win against No. 16 Texas A&M at home this weekend. If the Irish drop to 0-2, they’re out of the playoff field and will face a tough path to make it back in, as these first two games were the best resume-building opportunities for the Irish this season.
9. South Carolina
Last Week: Ninth
The Gamecocks played South Carolina State this week and won as expected. You could probably make an argument that Illinois and/or Oklahoma have been more impressive this season and deserve a spot over either South Carolina or Notre Dame, but there’s still plenty of time for that to be proven on the football field. For now, the LaNorris Sellers-led Gamecocks stay where they were last week.
8. Florida State
Last Week: Not Ranked
Florida State opened the year with a 31-17 win over Alabama, winning big despite quarterback Thomas Castellanos completing just nine passes. He only completed eight against FCS program East Texas A&M this past week, but three of those went for touchdowns, and he somehow had 237 yards on those eight completions.
FSU probably should have been in the top 12 last week, but I was still clinging to the preseason hype around Clemson. I’m no longer doing that. The Seminoles are the second-best team in the ACC.
7. Texas
Last Week: Fifth
Texas dropping two spots after a win? Yeah, sorry Longhorns, but Oregon and Miami both look too good to keep behind a one-loss Texas team.
With that said, Texas did what it needed to against San Jose State, winning 38-7. Arch Manning looked much better than he had against Ohio State, and the Horns have a pretty clear path back into the top four if they can win out, especially if that means a road win against Georgia.
6. Miami
Last Week: Seventh
Miami’s rise continues. Obviously, we didn’t learn much from the Hurricanes in a 45-3 win over Bethune-Cookman because, well…it’s Bethune-Cookman, but Carson Beck looks very comfortable in this offense and the 2-0 Canes are the best ACC team at this point.
On Saturday, the team plays host to South Florida in what should be a huge game. The Bulls have already taken down two good football teams, but Miami is a double-digit favorite in this one. If the Hurricanes win convincingly, it might be time to talk about them as a top-four team.
5. Georgia
Last Week: Fourth
Maybe Georgia could have defeated Austin Peay by a few more points last week, but the Bulldogs are still 2-0 as they head into the tough part of their schedule.
Starting Saturday against Tennessee, Georgia will play four of its next five games against ranked teams, including road trips to Tennessee and Auburn. It’s time to finally learn how good this team will be in 2025.
4. Oregon
Last Week: Sixth
Welcome to a first-round bye, Oregon! The Ducks had the most impressive win in the country in Week 2, beating Big 12 program Oklahoma State 69-3. Sure, the Cowboys are having a down year, but you aren’t supposed to beat a power conference team like that.
The decision to go with Dante Moore at quarterback instead of hitting the portal again has paid off, as he had 266 passing yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma State.
3. Penn State
Last Week: Third
Alright, here comes the boring part, as the top three spots stay the same.
Penn State has won big two weeks in a row, but those wins were over Nevada and FIU. This week, the team plays Villanova, then has a bye week. The fact that we won’t get to see Drew Allar and company against an actual good team until Sept. 27 against Oregon is definitely worrisome, but I think this is a top-four roster.
2. LSU
Last Week: Second
After Clemson struggled against Troy this week, LSU’s season-opening 17-10 win over the Tigers doesn’t look quite as good, but it’s still a strong win.
This week, LSU’s offense didn’t do a ton against Louisiana Tech, but it also didn’t have to do a ton. Saturday’s game against Florida will be a good litmus test for how good the Tigers really are, because they should win that one by at least a couple of touchdowns.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
The defending champions will remain No. 1 until they lose.
A 70-0 win over Grambling was a good way to get this offense going after it was held to 14 points by Texas, and this week’s game against Ohio should be another easy tune-up for the Buckeyes before their conference season begins on Sept. 27 on the road at Washington.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Miami
- No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas
- No. 9 South Carolina at No. 8 Florida State
