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Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the 2023 Open Championship (Round 1). The final Major of the calendar year is already upon us, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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This week, we're at Royal Liverpool for the 2023 Open Championship! The last two times we visited this historic venue, we saw two all-time greats capture sentimental titles: Tiger in 2006 after the passing of his father, and Rory McIlroy in 2014, winning his first Major Title on British Soil. If those two iterations are anything to go off of, the golfing world is in for another classic around a recently buffed-up setup at Royal Liverpool. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, July 20.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Collin Morikawa LESS than 70.5 Strokes
With recent rains softening up Hoylake to near unrecognizable levels compared to 2006/2014, and relatively benign wind forecasts (steadily between 8-12 mph sustained most of the day), I'm of the belief that Thursday's session will provide players with the best scoring conditions they'll see all week. With the recent form he's coming in with, and set at a line of 70.5 Strokes (-0.5 to Par), Collin Morikawa stands out to me as the best opportunity to take advantage of these softer conditions.
While he's missed a few opportunities to break his winless drought in 2023, Collin's game is not far away statistically from the guy we saw climb to No. 2 in the World Golf Rankings just a year and a half ago. In particular, the driver has turned a significant corner and is starting to fire at peak levels in recent weeks. Morikawa has gained 8.5 shots off the tee over his last three starts, which is the best ten-round stretch he's had in over 18 months, and the irons continue to be one of the elite weapons in world golf. Collin has gained at least three shots on approach in 8 of his last 9 appearances, and on a golf course that puts such a premium on avoiding trouble off the fairway and dialing in your approach shots from 170 yards plus, Morikawa checks those boxes as ardently as anyone in this field.
Intensely motivated off of a runner-up finish in Detroit, I expect Collin to carry this momentum forward in Hoylake this week. This is as good a runup as I've seen him carry into a Major Championship since that 2021 Open, and in gettable conditions Thursday afternoon, he will be fully incentivized to continue knocking down flagsticks.
Scottie Scheffler MORE than Cameron Smith - Birdies or Better Matchup
Like many others in the golf betting space, I'm not seeing a lot of signs pointing to Cam Smith as a repeat Open Champion. Although he comes into the week off of two consecutive Top 10s in Majors and a recent win at LIV London, the penalty for wayward misses around Hoylake could spell real trouble in Cam's title defense. Smith ranks 36th out of 48 golfers in driving accuracy in the 2023 LIV season and although he managed to capture his second LIV title just two weeks ago, he did so with a fairway percentage 10% lower than the field average.
This type of sporadic driving is not a recipe for success around a course with seven separate instances of Out of Bounds, Pot Bunkers that carry a severe penalty to those that find them and knee-deep fescue and thick gorse bushes lurking just off of the fairway. Of course, Cam's ability to manufacture birdies from dire positions is one of the reasons he's climbed to as high as No. 2 in the world, but I'm far from confident that he can deal with this type of driving test.
Especially when he's matched up with the PGA Tour leader in Total Driving, SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, and Scoring Average. Scheffler continues to be the safest proposition in world golf, as no matter where he tees it up, or in what conditions he plays in, he finds a way to climb to the top of the leaderboard. With seven consecutive Top 5's, no finish worse than 12th in the calendar year, and a sterling Major Championship track record that extends far beyond his early season breakout in 2022, you won't find me laying a single cent against Scottie in the form he's currently in.
Other Recommendations
- Si Woo Kim LESS than 71.5 Strokes
- Viktor Hovland LESS than 70.0 Strokes
- Justin Rose MORE than Sungjae Im - Birdies or Better Matchup
Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play
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Win Big With RotoBaller
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— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
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