Points Leagues Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 7

Welcome to the RotoBaller waiver wire column which falls in-line with most fantasy “who should I pick up?” articles with a skew towards points leagues. Yes, there is positive correlation to standard 5x5 scoring but in our format, specific categories matter less and the accumulation of total stats is the ultimate objective. Some stats are uniquely critical.

For Week 7, we’ll key in on walks and strikeouts. In points leagues, when debating two comparable fantasy pieces, the edge goes to the hitter with better plate discipline and the pitcher with superior control. Since points leagues ding strikeouts and reward free passes (for hitters), the marginal gains and losses could make a material difference across a full season.

Our points league waiver wire column will default to standard scoring and try to unearth three players under 50% ownership and three players under 25% ownership. For each group, we’ll identify an infielder, outfielder and pitcher. Let’s get hunting!

Points League Pickups to Consider

Eric Sogard (2B/SS, TOR)

17% Owned

As a career .242 hitter with a career 79 wRC+, Eric Sogard has historically been miles from fantasy relevance. With four homers this season, Sogard is more than one-third towards his career totals (11 entering 2019) and is making his case as a versatile, multi-category fantasy asset.

Sogard currently holds a BB/K of 1.4 which places him third-best if he qualified. The better eye has lowered his strikeout rate from 20% to 11% and improved contact rates have lifted his OPS from a career .640 to a stellar 1.051. Sogard’s astronomical hitting metrics are bound to come down, but he’s racking up extra-base hits (nine), swiping bags (two) and bats leadoff daily. Even with a trend back to earth, Sogard’s newfound plate discipline puts him in position to test 50 extra-base hits, double-digit steals and solid run production.

David Fletcher (2B/3B/OF, LAA)

8% Owned

If 32-year-old utility lifers aren’t for you, David Fletcher is a positional swiss-army knife that could tickle your fancy. Fletcher is a younger clone of Sogard, batting leadoff and racking up extra-base hits and steals at a surprising clip.

Fletcher currently leads the majors with a 1.8 BB/K, no small feat. While he only walks 7% of plate appearances, Fletcher’s 4% K-rate is tops in the league. While a 24% hard-hit rate is pedestrian, Fletcher’s soft-contact profile has witnessed an uptick in exit velocity from 83 MPH to 85 MPH. With already three long balls on the season, Fletchers 98% Z-Contact rate is apparently permitting him some quality swings. With an xBA of .340 and superior plate discipline, Fletcher could transform into a doubles machine hitting ahead Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Not too shabby for a 24-year-old.

Alex Verdugo (OF, LAD)

31% Owned

With strong performance and some injuries in the Dodger outfield, Alex Verdugo has left the cloud of playing time uncertainty in the past. The exciting 22-year-old has excelled in his 101 plate appearances with 32 knocks, 11 extra-base hits (four homers) and a .946 OPS.

Verdugo has lowered his strikeout clip from 16% to 10%, leading to a sturdy 0.7 BB/K. His Statcast data and improved on batted-ball characteristics suggests we’re amidst a breakout. With a reputation as a ground-ball hitter, Verdugo has lifted his fly ball rate from 22% to 34%. That’s resulted in a jump in hard-hit rate to 39% and a 90 MPH exit velocity. If he keeps raking, Verdugo has a chance to be a key beneficiary of a loaded lineup.

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY)

20% Owned

Brett Gardner just won’t go away, and that’s a good thing in points leagues. While he’s outside the top-250 in standard leagues, he falls inside the top-100 in points formats. The 36-year-old does everything 5x5’s fail to capture; he walks, steals efficiently and loves doubles and triples.

With an 11-year track record, it’s encouraging to see Gardner’s numbers and expected stats in-line with his annual averages. The key improvements have been fewer strikeouts (22% to 11%), increased launch angle (11 to 14 degrees) and a two MPH uptick in exit velocity (88.9). This puts Gardner on track to tally his usual 140-plus runs-plus-RBI, 30 doubles and triples, 80% steals success and an inside shot to surpass his career high of 21 homers. Don’t be fooled by the standard-league narrative, Gardner is still a highly valuable fantasy asset.

Brandon Woodruff (SP, MIL)

35% Owned

After a six-inning, one-run outing against the Nationals on May 8, Brandon Woodruff is on a streak of three straight starts allowing just one run and a 7.3 BB/K. Since wins matter in points leagues, playing for the reigning National League champ helps. He already has five victories this year.

A supporting offense is half the story, Woodruff possesses traits fantasy managers crave. His strikeouts are near 30% and the great control gives him the league’s 15th-best 23.1% K-BB. A three-pitch mix headlined with a mid-90s heater has resulted in an 11.7% SwStr%. Woodruff’s xwOBA (.304) and SIERA (3.39) check the boxes; he should keep rolling as the season progresses.

Lucas Giolito (SP, CHW)

11% Owned

After shaking off the cobwebs from an IL stint on May 2, Lucas Giolito hurled 7 1/3 frames of shutout ball against the Indians on May 7. After posting an ugly 16% strikeout rate in 2018, Giolito has lifted that number to 29% through 31 innings pitched.

Three years removed from his hyped prospect days and starting amidst the anonymity of Chicago’s southside, we forget Giolito is only 24. Giolito’s fastball velocity has surged to 94 MPH this year and he’s begun leaning on a changeup that’s been one of the league’s best this season. Giolito has endured control issues, but a 17.7% K-BB works fine. If he keeps honing that changeup as his kill pitch, the rise in strikeouts and 12% SwStr% seems durable. Although it’s a small sample, the underlying data suggests it could be Giolito’s time.

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