RADIO
Connelly Doan analyzes players on non-contending teams who will still hold fantasy baseball value in 2018 roto and points leagues after the MLB trade deadline.
July is one of the most exciting times of the year for baseball: division races are starting to take shape, fans get to see all of their favorite All-Stars on the same stage, and the trade rumor mill is in full swing. Big names will find new homes and some teams will drastically change the layout of their rosters.
These changes can have a large impact on fantasy owners’ rosters as well. Fantasy owners may be afraid that some of their players will lose significant fantasy value if they are left behind in the aftermath of teams clearing house. This is a valid concern; no one wants to own the only good bat in a weak lineup or a pitcher on a losing team.
However, there are some players who are worth holding onto despite their teams being sellers. Identifying and keeping these players could be key for fantasy owners trying to make a push before the playoffs, whether they hold them and reap the benefits or buy low on them from scared owners. Here are a few valuable players to hone in on who are currently on teams looking to sell this trade deadline.
Hold the Line
Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins: Safe in all points and roto leagues (10+ teams)
The Twins narrative has changed drastically in the past year, from making the playoffs in 2017 to now planning on selling their upcoming free agents, including big bats Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar. The Twins will need some young talent to build around in upcoming years, and they happen to have that in outfielder Eddie Rosario. The 26-year-old has become a solid fantasy option over the past two seasons, boasting a combination of average and power.
Rosario has made impressive strides this season from last; his batting average (.307 vs .288), home runs (18 vs 10), and hard hit rate (38.2% vs 28.2%) are all up from where they were this time last season. His value will go down in the runs and RBI departments after the Twins lose some of their top bats, but at the pace he is on now (57 runs and 53 RBI), he is likely to post career-highs in both categories even without the offensive support. He is an All-Star in the making (although he didn't get a much-deserved nod) and fantasy owners should take comfort in their rising fantasy asset rather than fear his value will diminish during a Twins’ rebuild.
Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles: Safe in all points and roto leagues (12+ teams)
It is no secret that the Baltimore Orioles will likely be one of this season’s biggest sellers at the trade deadline. Shortstop Manny Machado has been all the rage in terms of trade talk, but the Orioles have made it clear that almost any strong bat or relief arm is up for sale. Who knows what may actually happen in the coming weeks, but odds are the team will be a shell of itself come August 1. With a weak offense getting weaker and a sturdy bullpen getting dismantled, why would anyone want any remaining players on the Orioles?
The answer is that they have a young, solid pitcher serving as their staff ace. Dylan Bundy is only 25 years old but already has a track record as being a middle-of-the-rotation fantasy option. Bundy has a career 4.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with a 8.66 K/9 rate and a 2.93 BB/9 rate through 380 ⅓ innings pitched. He is mostly pitching to those numbers this season, sporting a 4.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.97 K/9 rate, and 2.72 BB/9 rate through 17 starts. He has had some home run issues (19 allowed in 99 ⅓ IP), but has also had strong stretches throughout the season and has significantly increased his strikeouts. Regardless of the offense or bullpen around him, Bundy is a decent pitcher with upside and room to grow. He will remain the O’s go-to starter even after they clean house and will still have plenty of fantasy value for the rest of this season and for seasons to come.
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: Safe in roto leagues (10+ teams)
The Texas Rangers have had several big names, both hitters and pitchers in trade talks for a while now and they will surely be sellers this trade deadline. Potentially losing Adrian Beltre and Shin-Soo Choo would hurt the Rangers’ lineup, but their biggest bat would still remain, and would still be dangerous. First baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo is one of the top power threats in baseball and will continue to mash home runs regardless of who else is in the lineup with him.
The 24-year-old has followed up last season’s power display so far this season, hitting 21 HR (13th-most in baseball) with 48 RBI through 86 games. He also walks a respectable 12.1% of the time. However, Gallo has some glaring errors in his game that have also repeated themselves. His .190 batting average is third-worst amongst qualified hitters, and his 36.3% strikeout rate is the worst in baseball. The cons of his game bring Gallo’s fantasy value down significantly in points leagues. However, in roto leagues, where strikeouts do not matter in terms of counting stats, owners will live with the low batting average in return for the elite HR and RBI. So while the Gallo may have less runners on base when he hits his HR after the trade deadline, he will still be mashing at a high clip, thus retaining his fantasy value.
Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds: Safe in points leagues (16+ teams) or on-base percentage categories leagues (12+ teams)
Despite their recent hot streak, the Reds are still in last place in their division and are 14 games out of first place. Several Reds players have been floating around the trade deadline talks, including outfielders Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall. One Reds player who would actually benefit from either of these players getting traded is rookie outfielder Jesse Winker. The 24-year-old has had to compete for playing time in a crowded outfield this season but has proved that he can be a valuable fantasy asset when he has played.
Winker has performed as profiled so far this season. He has a great eye and plate discipline; Winker is currently ninth in baseball in walk rate (15.1%) and 13th in on-base percentage (.391). He doesn’t have great power (.403 slugging percentage) and doesn’t have much speed, which limits his upside fantasy-wise. However, a player who gets on base as much as Winker does will have opportunities to score runs regardless of the lineup they are in. His fantasy value should go up if he can secure everyday playing time in a Reds lineup that will still have some big bats after the trade deadline.
Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers: Safe in deep points leagues or Saves/Holds categories leagues (16+ teams)
Relief pitchers are always a hot commodity come trade time, and the Tigers Shane Greene (shoulder) has had his name thrown into the mix. While Greene may not end up being traded due to him recently being placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, there is one Tigers relief pitcher who has already benefited from the injury and would continue to do so whether Greene got traded or stayed injured.
The 24-year-old flamethrower Joe Jiminez has been a bright spot in the Tigers bullpen this season, posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 10.10 K/9 rate, four wins, 13 holds, and three saves. Jimenez has taken over as interim closer since Greene has been out and would likely continue those duties if Greene remains injured or gets traded. Even if Greene were to remain with the Tigers, Jimenez’s high strikeout rate and chance to earn holds make him a useful fantasy option in deeper leagues. The Tigers have not performed well this season and would be even worse after selling at the trade deadline, but Jimenez would still be a bright spot, the brightest really, in the Tigers bullpen.
