For most leagues, this is it, Fantasy Championship Weekend. Even if your league runs through Week 17, congratulations, kudos, mazel tov and excelsior to you if you're still competing for some jelly beans. I'm sure there are some savvy owners out there who have had to bob and weave through the DeAndre Hopkins and Todd Gurleys of the world. Some of those players (probably most, if i'm being honest) have appeared in Warning Signals at one point or another. Knowing when to sit disappointing studs is often one of the most difficult aspects of fantasy so here's hoping this piece has helped you out.

Now that we've all patted ourselves on the back, it's time to look ahead to this week's games. As you might recall, the last few editions of Warning Signals have focused on players that can make or break your lineup come playoff time. There is going to be a lot more sternness in advising you whether to star or sit someone in Week 16. Besides, that's probably what you need right now anyway. If there was ever a week to "set it and forget it," championship week is undoubtedly that time.

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Heed the Warning Signs

Jordan Reed - (TE, WAS)

If you've been keeping up with Warning Signals throughout the year, you'd know that I tend to hold off on mentioning players dealing with an injury. Unfortunately, there just isn't enough time left to wait around on Jordan Reed. Anyone watching Monday Night's game between the Panthers and Redskins should have noticed Reed writhing around in pain. It's almost as if everyone except Washington's own training staff was aware of the severity of Reed's injury. In the end, it kind of didn't matter since Reed ended up getting ejected for throwing a punch. That doesn't mean he's off the hook for Week 16, though.

Obviously Jordan Reed is one of the most explosive tight ends in fantasy so it'll be tempting to use him if he is indeed active come Saturday. The thing is, I don't think it makes a difference whether or not he plays. Even while active over the last two weeks, he's barely seen the field. His snap count is skewed due to the ejection on Monday but looking back at Washington's previous game against Philadelphia, Reed saw just 19 snaps. He's simply not healthy enough to be out there in a significant capacity.

Listen, I get it, he has tremendous talent and can singlehandedly win you a week. But I just can't bring myself to start a guy with one arm who might only be out there as a decoy if he's even out there at all. Speaking from personal experience as a Reed owner, here is a list of names I considered playing over him, in order: Hunter Henry, Charles Clay, Dennis Pitta, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Jermaine Gresham. I was fortunate enough to snag Henry off Waivers but the point here is that all of them were available and I'd gladly use any of them over a one-armed man. Avoid this situation at all costs.

 

Ben Roethlisberger - (QB, PIT)

The last two weeks have been extremely rough for Ben Roethlisberger as he has just one touchdown compared to three interceptions over that span. He's been brutal during the fantasy playoffs and I would bet there are some owners out there looking for alternatives. In fact, Big Ben being bad on the road has been a trend you can count on all year. Throw in what looks like a tough matchup with the Baltimore Ravens and things might look a little grim for Roethlisberger. Except for the fact that...

...the game is in Pittsburgh. "Why is that so significant?" You might ask? Well, for starters, when playing at home this season, Ben Roethlisberger is the number one quarterback in fantasy. No one has been better at home than Big Ben. As an added bonus, the Ravens are more vulnerable against the pass than they are against the run. The way to beat the Baltimore defense is through the air so you should expect a heavy dose of the passing game come Sunday.

It's not even like there are potent streamer options available this week anyway. I get that he's been frustrating to own as of late and if you're still alive after using him, your team is probably strong at other positions. If Jordan Reed is a "sit," Ben Roethlisberger firmly qualifies as a "start." Throw out the last two weeks and bank on how strong he is at home in an underrated matchup.

 

Adrian Peterson - (RB, MIN)

Stop it. Just, no. You can't use Adrian Peterson. I know he's a freak of nature. I know he was active last week. But he also didn't do anything at all.

I'm actually amazed at how many fantasy owners I've seen consider this a realistic play. Forget the injury, in the two games AP did appear in prior to getting hurt he was flat out bad. Plus, you've made it this far with who you've got. How can a broken, old, bad, Adrian Peterson with a terrible offensive line be any better than what got you to Week 16 in the first place? The only scenario in which I would even consider using Peterson is if you've been forced to start Jerrick McKinnon/Matt Asiata lately. That's it. Time to let it go on AP.

 

Larry Fitzgerald - (WR, ARI)

Quick little trivia tidbit for you; did you know that Larry Fitzgerald currently leads the league in receptions? His seven catches in Week 15 put him two ahead of Antonio Brown on the year yet he hasn't scored since early October. It's easy to look at Fitzgerald's low fantasy totals in standard scoring and think he's over the hill or past his prime. The truth of the matter is, he's been a PPR machine this year. That's the good news.

The bad news is the impending matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are obviously one of the league's best defenses so the matchup is justifiably scary. That being said, I don't think that alone is enough to bench Fitzgerald outright. You'd have to have a legitimately strong option to bench him in standard scoring. I'm talking like, Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton, and Brandin Cooks level of stacked. It's unlikely but sure, in that scenario, bench Larry Fitzgerald. In PPR though? You should feel confident in using him. He's simply been too efficient to let matchup get in the way.

 

Updates From Last Week

Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower - (RBs, NO)

Have you ever played any games at a casino? I'm a roulette man myself but no matter what you play, ultimately, the house always wins. That's what it's like trying to figure out the Saints backfield. The house always wins, and in this case, Sean Payton is the house. Mark Ingram had over 90 total yards of offense last week yet Tim Hightower got the goal-line looks for two touchdowns. It's impossible to predict which of the two will be the better fantasy play so I would try to look elsewhere unless you're desperate. Personally, I prefer Ingram since I think he's simply more talented than Hightower. Certainly don't feel strong about that call at all.

Jay Ajayi  - (RB, MIA)

So Jay Ajayi's bounce back game didn't come in Week 15 against the Jets but that's partly because Matt Moore was out there slinging the ball like Joe Montana. That was one of those cases where game flow dictated something unpredictable. It sucks for fantasy but sometimes that's just how the cookie crumbles in real-life NFL football. Luckily, Ajayi gets another soft matchup when the Dolphins face Buffalo on Saturday. The Bills have given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns all year. Ajayi should be able to get it done this week.

Doug Baldwin  - (WR, SEA)

Doug Baldwin ended his scoring drought in Week 15 while adding five receptions for 35 yards. His yardage totals remain lackluster but as stated last week, he's having some surprisingly nice games in PPR. You can still keep rolling with Baldwin in the championship round.

Stefon Diggs - (WR, MIN)

Stefon Diggs continues to disappoint as of late and now he's dealing with a hip injury heading into the Christmas Eve slate. Kyle Rudolph, of all people, seems like the only Vikings player you can count on for fantasy at this point. I'd look elsewhere for a WR3/flex play.