X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

First Base Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball - EDV Finds Undervalued, Overvalued Picks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Fantasy Baseball

Nick Mariano's first base (1B) fantasy baseball draft values for 2023. He uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values to identify overvalued and undervalued 1B.

Baseball is coming, so it is time for another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We'll start at first base and make our way around the diamond to begin the 2023 exercise.

Today, we'll look at first basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning January into February, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a data set that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, 7) BA.

We all know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context if necessary. EDV is not some definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it helps sharpen the tools in your kit on draft day. Now, let's move along.

 

Top First Base Tiers

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return a positive or negative value. Below, we look at five power bats that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC DC ADP, our CUTTER projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Many view 1B as a steady current of value and most feel comfortable waiting, so how does this play out? Without further ado, here is a rundown of first base!

We start at the top, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a soft buy at an even market price, with the crux of it hinging on two parts. We have Toronto’s new walls to contemplate, as well as the surge in steals once John Schneider became skipper.

Guerrero had only attempted one steal (it failed) through July 13, when the Blue Jays called on Schneider to replace Charlie Montoyo as manager. Then we saw the 23-year-old go 8-for-10 on swipe attempts in their final 72 games, helping fuel that 46-28 surge toward a postseason berth. If ~10 steals are on the table then he comes close to the 50 HR+SB demanded by his EDV. I'm in.

Some will elevate Vladito into his own 1A tier, while others will have this next batch right there with him across the top of their draft sheet. Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso are both strong buys, as is reigning NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt.

Freeman's value is tied more to his R+RBI opportunities within LA, but the Dodgers did take a step back this offseason. Still, his 211 R+RBI projection is 19 above the EDV mark, and his batting average should edge the .298 tally, which helps offset the modest HR+SB total. Alonso's 41 HR projection is right on the EDV nose and I'm happily taking him after going SP or speed in the first round. Goldy's well-rounded stat sheet yields little disappointment as well.

 

Mid-Round First Base Tier

If everyone's good, then where do you turn your profit? On the one hand, a strong piece within a strong position can supply a bulwark against weaker ones to come. And if you want to load up the corner-infield slot to protect yourself against a top-heavy third base field that bottoms out then these guys are happy to be of service.

In fact, would you believe that almost everyone at first base is a healthy buy at their ADP? You have to drop down to Andrew Vaughn and Jose Miranda to find a tier where the values start turning red. This is where the projections say you get three chances to truly make good: Ryan Mountcastle, Josh Bell, and Joey Meneses.

Mountcastle has been pushed down after Camden’s new wall ate up one too many deep balls but he still had even home/road power splits: 11 HR, 303 PAs at Camden, and 11 HR, 306 PAs on the road. He had three more doubles and triples away from Camden, so don't think I'm purposefully obscuring that. Statcast gave him 23 expected homers at Camden versus 40 in Cincinnati, and 36 in Houston, so it goes!

But it's lazy to simply blame the wall and move along. Out of 252 qualified hitters, Mountcastle's -0.086 difference between his slugging percentage (.423) and xSLG (.509) was the widest gap. The next Oriole we find is Anthony Santander (-0.016, 71st-worst) so there's still room to rebound. That wall isn't going anywhere and neither is Mountcastle, but 27-30 HR with 160 R+RBI from the middle of the order has him above EDV.

Bell’s patient bat gets to hit cleanup for Cleveland, giving him an excellent chance at crushing the EDV’s call for ~150 R+RBI. He'd also only have to hit .254 to match the draft-day demand, which he's exceeded in every season outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. You know with Meneses that you’re taking a flier on a small-sample upside shown, but you can bail on early for waiver churn if he flops.

 

Late-Round First Base Tier

While we'd all love to have studs across our entire roster, some spots will be filled late in the draft. And what does that look like at first base? The EDV formula doesn't have anyone's projection meeting its cohort cutoff after Luis Arraez around pick 215, but that doesn't mean the rest get lumped into some "undraftable" bucket.

Josh Naylor and Triston Casas are healthy buys for your CI slot or a bench role relative to the field. You still get roughly 25-30 HR+SB with a projected average of .250 or higher in hitter-friendly venues for their left-handed swings. While Casas only hit .197 in his first 95 MLB PAs, he still slugged five home runs, had a 20% walk rate, and showed signs of elite contact. Out of 497 batters with 50 batted-ball events, the 23-year-old's 95.7 mph average exit velocity on flies/liners ranked 45th.

Dive deeper and you'll likely find Wil Myers' 1B/OF eligibility at Great American Ballpark, the most homer-friendly spot in baseball per EVAnalytics' Park Factors. Those in daily formats can juggle Brandon Belt into the lineup when deployed, while those simply seeking plate appearances can't forget about Carlos Santana in Pittsburgh.

 

Top First Base vs. EDV - Full Data Table

We've got players, the cohort they qualify for (if applicable), their HR+SB projection against what EDV demands, same with their R+RBI, a similar batting average score, and notes.

Player ADP Cohort HR+SB
v. EDV
R+RBI
v. EDV
AVG Notes
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 11.62 BA+HR+SB -3.1 4.9 -3.3 Solid foundation, heart of the order bat
Freddie Freeman 12.67 BA+HR+SB -15.6 12.0 1.3 Lack of overwhelming power offset by AVG, LAD R+RBI
Pete Alonso 18.7 HR 1.3 5.0 -0.3 Massive power resource won't burn the average down
Paul Goldschmidt 24.33 BA+HR -0.2 7.7 -4.1 Reigning NL MVP is a healthy anchor
Matt Olson 42.86 HR 2.0 3.7 -1.7 Steady buy as the last man in the upper tiers
Jose Abreu 88.67 BA+HR -2.9 24.8 -4.5 Huge opportunity within middle of HOU order
Vinnie Pasquantino 92.62 BA+HR 1.3 9.6 -4.0 Can KC youths take a unified step forward
Nathaniel Lowe 115 HR -4.3 -2.3 6.8 Not exciting, but spot in surging TEX makes nice profit
Rhys Hoskins 119.62 HR -0.3 24.3 -2.1 Start of three healthy buys, usually one slips
C.J. Cron 127.56 HR -0.6 20.7 3.1 Will have to juggle Coors v. road but composite checks out
Christian Walker 131.65 HR -1.7 20.0 1.8 Growth in pulled fly balls matched with health yielded $$
Andrew Vaughn 138.67 First bat not to qualify, though 1B/OF eligibility helps
Jose Miranda 147.43 Another case of no cohort but 3B elig. is big in 2023
Anthony Rizzo 149.41 HR 0.1 0.1 -1.7 Shift ban helps, great environment, must manage back inj.
Ryan Mountcastle 153.81 HR -2.5 14.4 3.8 Camden hurts, if he ups aggression then could still pop
Rowdy Tellez 163.87 HR -1.9 3.1 -5.5 Nice later power source if you can stomach the BA hit
Ty France 170.43 .873 OPS pre-collision, .682 OPS post-collision. You in?
Josh Bell 176.86 HR -3.5 21.3 2.1 Great risk-reward if CLE lets him attack early pitches
Alec Bohm 179.8 Bulked a bit, will plus swing yield 25+ HRs?
Brandon Drury 184.1 How much magic was tied to GABP? .724 OPS post-trade
Jake Cronenworth 187.29 Lesser projections, but you're likely playing him at 2B
Joey Meneses 192.05 HR 0.0 0.7 5.9 Small-sample basis but can drop for waiver if he flops
Luis Arraez 204.4 BA -1.3 28.5 0.0 You know the deal. Little category juice but AVG anchor
Seth Brown 205 HR 3.6 -10.2 -3.6 Last 1B to qualify for a cohort, even if a bit lagging


Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF