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Jarod's outfield fantasy baseball busts, avoids for 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. These hitters were busts last year, and will continue junking in up in 2025.
When looking for values in a fantasy baseball draft, you may look at players who were "busts" the year before. Players who burned fantasy managers the season before could be unnecessarily shunned in drafts the following season simply for having one down year.
However, there may be other reasons a player underperformed expectations, and there may be indications that they will do it again, becoming part of a downward trend for that player.
In this article, we'll take a look at three outfielders who were busts in comparison to their 2024 ADP and why there's a good chance it will happen again, even at their new "discounted" draft price.
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Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
ADP: 82
This time last year, Luis Robert Jr. was being taken as the 10th outfielder, going off fantasy draft boards with an ADP of around 29. A five-category contributor with a tantalizing skill set that led to a 38/20 season the year before, his price tag seemed appropriate at the time.
But yet another season marred by injury and layered with underperformance led to all-around underwhelming stats. A final line of .224-14-35-47-23 is what came to pass, with a wOBA of .285 and wRC+ of 84.
Surely, his expected stats told a different story, though, right? Wrong. The former All-Star registered an xBA of .210 and an xwOBA of .277 with a .310 BABIP (career .329). One can surmise that, if not for his speed, things could have looked even worse than they did.
The right-handed hitter has never drawn many walks, with a career walk rate of 5.6 percent, which comes in well below the league average. On top of that, the strikeout rate shot up to 33.2 percent (+4.3 percent vs. 2023), and the contact rate fell to 66.9 percent.
One thing that actually improved year-over-year was his chase rate, but don't be fooled, as that's like saying it went from pathetic (third percentile) to just really bad (10th percentile).
Don't look now, but the 27-year-old is 7-for-22 (.318) this spring with two home runs and a 3:6 BB:K. Just in time to trick fantasy owners into thinking he's back on track.
With his tools, he may very well be back on track, but a cautious approach is warranted. Given his injury history, poor offensive environment, and anything you might glean from the expected stats from last season, even a lower price tag of 82 may be too risky with the likes of Seiya Suzuki going at 83 and Bryan Reynolds at 91.
Suzuki, for example, is coming off back-to-back seasons with at least 132 games played, at least a .283 average, at least 20 home runs, and has the potential to steal 20-plus bases this year after swiping 16 last season. A more consistent DH role might keep him in the lineup more than ever before.
Robert probably has a higher ceiling, but the Cuban comes with much higher bust potential (again), while other players in that range can offer cross-category production with safer floors.
Players I will be fading in the top 100 due to their current ADP:
Mookie Betts
Emmanual Clase
Jacob deGrom
CJ Abrams
Marcus Semien
Luis Robert Jr.This is not to say these guys aren't good...just that the price tag is too hefty for me🤷♂️
— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) January 31, 2025
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
ADP: 140
Fresh off of a 39-homer campaign in 2023 with more than 100 RBI and runs scored, Adolis Garcia was being taken two outfielder spots after the aforementioned Luis Robert Jr. with the 44th overall pick in fantasy drafts.
Yet despite playing in 154 games in 2024, the two-time All-Star saw a 14-homer year-over-year (YoY) drop to 25 HR for the season with only 85 RBI and a measly 68 runs scored, plus a .224 batting average to boot. That's certainly not what fantasy managers paid for.
The problem was not strikeouts as his 27.8 percent K% was nearly identical to the two prior seasons; however, walk, contact, and barrel rates notably declined while SwStr% and chase rate both increased.
The thing is, many of the stats just mentioned were more in line with career norms, so it should probably be expected that 2025 will look much more like 2024 than 2023.
The 32-year-old has an NFBC ADP of 140 this year, which mirrors that muted expectation, but maybe even that is too high. Garcia has been very durable the last four seasons, playing in no less than 148 games. Although there is no indication that he'll miss Opening Day, he's already dealing with a mild oblique strain.
Additionally -- acknowledging we only have two seasons of data to go off -- the right-handed hitter's bat speed was tracked in the 71st percentile in 2023, and it dropped to 54th percentile in 2024. Not something you want to see from someone you're counting on for power, if nothing else.
What has also dried up is his speed. The Cuban has gone from 83rd percentile sprint speed in 2021 to 67th in 2022, to 50th in 2023, and to 36th percentile in 2024, so another season of double-digit steals doesn't look like a good bet.
Adding an xBA of .227 and xwOBA of .306 to the pile of caution flags from 2024, there appear to be plenty of signs saying that maybe even Pick 140 is too high of a price to pay for the aging slugger.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 240
From the time he debuted in 2014 up through the 2022 campaign, George Springer recorded no less than a 119 wRC+ in any single season. That 2022 season saw him register double-digit steals (14) for the first time since 2015 and improve his K% by 5.9 percentage points YoY, finishing with a 133 wRC+.
Other than a big YoY drop in barrel rate, from 15.3 percent in 2021 to 8.3 percent in 2022, it looked as though there was no age-related decline in sight, but maybe that was just the first indication.
Despite recording his first career 20/20 season in 2023 and setting a career-high in contact rate, the barrel rate dipped again to 7.7 percent, as did hard-hit% to 39.4 percent. The former first-round draft pick finished with a 104 wRC+, the worst of his career to that point.
Going at pick No. 125 as the 26th outfielder off the board, the four-time All-Star was still somewhat productive for fantasy in 2024, belting 19 home runs, scoring 74 times, and stealing 16 bases; but outside of 2020, it was the first time since 2015 that he hit less than 20 home runs in a season.
Bat speed went from the 62nd percentile in 2023 to the 52nd percentile in 2024, and hard-hit% took another 2.4 point YoY drop to 37.0 percent. He also finished the campaign with a career-worst 95 wRC+.
So, while the counting stats were still useful for fantasy, we're seeing a downward trend that doesn't bode well for a 35-year-old major leaguer.
At his 2025 draft cost, there is little risk involved if he doesn't get back to the 20/20 threshold, but why not take a shot on a younger player with more upside? At that point in fantasy drafts, a solid floor like Springer doesn't help if the player never finds a way into your lineup.
I wrote about why Jesus Sanchez could be a value in that same range, and Garrett Mitchell has a good power/speed profile who could be a breakout player going near Springer as well. Both are outfield options, but there are others there who can be had if the position is not important to your decision.
According to Roster Resource, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner could be the Blue Jays cleanup hitter, a change from his typical role as leadoff hitter. While that may be a boon to his RBI potential, it could be a double-doink to his potential run-scoring and stolen base accumulation.
Just another reason to fade the veteran, even at his current ADP, and go with a player on the upswing, not one on a downtrend.
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