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We picked up our first sweep of the season with a 2-0 Week 12! Of course, it took the improbable comeback win by the Jaguars to push that game total over. Washington took care of business, defeating Atlanta by six and covering our four-point number. I'm in the green for the year unit-wise, now it's time to build and keep us on the right track as we near playoffs.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 16-14, +1.68 units
- Spread: 6-4, +1.35 units
- Total/Team Total: 6-9, -3.81 units
- Moneyline: 3-1, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 13 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday 12/4, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 44.5
The Jets got an adrenaline shot with Mike White at quarterback in their 31-10 win last week, however, it also cost them their starting running back Michael Carter (ankle). It didn't seem to affect the unit though, as they threw for over 300 yards with three touchdowns while the rest of the team rushed for over 80 yards and a score. We still don't know a ton about White, but he's been solid enough that with more performances like last week combined with the Jets' Top 5 defense and this team could present some problems.
Minnesota had a strong answer in Week 12, beating New England 33-26, after getting trounced in Week 11. We all know that Kirk Cousins in the afternoon slate is a different quarterback. He's 6-0 this year in 1 pm games with 10 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards. The Vikings' run game has been a relative disappointment but both facets of the offense will have a tough test this week with the Jets' defense.
While New York has the clear defensive advantage in this one, this is the first true offensive test they've seen since the first few weeks of the season. This doesn't count their win over Buffalo who was clearly struggling that day. Minnesota has some serious weapons at every skill position and with 1 pm Kirk Cousins on tap, I look for Minnesota to take care of business. The spread has dropped 1.5 points since the opening, so I'm buying back on Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota -3 (-106, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-1)
Sunday 12/4, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 51.5
With the way Jacksonville's season has gone, their comeback 28-27 upset win over Baltimore last week may have been the highlight. Trevor Lawrence has decent stats but has underperformed when needed. The offense averages about 5.6 yards per play, which is respectable, but they can't close. Averaging almost 4 red zone trips a game, they cash in with a touchdown just 53% of the time.
Even at 4-7, some would say the Lions are peaking right now. Before their close loss to Buffalo in Week 12, they won their three previous efforts and in three of the last four, they've scored 25 or more points. Much like Kirk Cousins playing on the 1 pm slate, I'm targeting Jared Goof and his strong home track record. Since joining Detroit, he averages 1.3 more touchdowns per game at home. Add in Jamaal Williams and Deandre Swift complementing each other in the run game, this Lions team is playing very differently from the beginning of the season.
As mentioned, the Jags beating Baltimore is kind of a peak for them in a lost season. Whereas Detroit has been playing hard all year and the fruits of their labor are paying off. While both defenses are absolutely awful, I think they build off of that and pick up their fifth win of the year.
Pick: Detroit ML (-108, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans
Sunday 12/4, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 46.5
Who could write a better NFL story than this? Deshaun Watson is set to start his first game in over two years back in Houston. Now he's with the Browns and set to take over an offense that was mediocre with Jacoby Brissett under center. Do we actually expect Cleveland to let it fly in his first game back? Nick Chubb averages over 5 yards per rush and has shown no signs of slowing down. It will be interesting to see what receivers Watson favors but this is going to take some time.
Houston has definitely been in shambles without Watson. They thought Davis Mills was going to get them somewhere and that has failed thus far. Now Kyle Allen is the guy, at least we think. They could go back to Mills at any time. Dameon Pierce has calmed down immensely and Brandin Cooks (ankle) is out Sunday. I don't see much excitement for this offense moving forward.
So this total opened at 44.5 and with the news of Watson starting that total jumped two points. The guy that hasn't thrown a pass in a game since 2020 or practiced with the team since training camp, yet that warrants the total jumping two points? Maybe I'm a sucker for buying the jump and going in the opposite direction but I'm fine with that. Houston may not score 10 points in this one and I think Cleveland eases Watson back into game action.
Pick: Under 46.5 (-108, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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