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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 New Orleans Saints to identify potential values and busts.
The New Orleans Saints have been potent for the past few years, but they have not been very lucky in the postseason as the team has not reached the Super Bowl due to last-minute plays or missed calls. The Saints do remain a powerhouse regular-season team though and that should not change for 2020.
QB Drew Brees is returning with a full set of weapons and the team should once again remain an NFC heavyweight. Will they finally reach the Super Bowl during the 2020 season? Well, nobody knows that answer, but one answer we do know is that fantasy owners can always depend on Saints skill players for great production.
Let’s look at the projected outlooks for these players and any new ones that may have entered the fold:
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Quarterback
The Saints have three QBs on their roster, but we know that Drew Brees is the unquestioned starter. The 41-year-old remains reliable on the field, but is he for fantasy this season? The reality is Brees was not an elite fantasy option in 2019 because of a thumb injury that sidelined him for multiple games. Last season, he finished 22nd among fantasy QBs, next to the likes of Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Philip Rivers. This comes after he finished eighth in 2018.
In the past campaign, the Purdue product finished with 2,979 yards, 27 touchdowns, four picks, 270.8 yards per game, and a 10.7 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate. He has not been much of a rushing QB, as he had -4 rushing yards last season TOTAL. Brees has never had more than 130 rush yards in a season, and that was all the way back in 2002.
Again, Brees had a down-year because of his setback. Despite his injury, the longtime Saints QB finished tied for fifth in pass touchdowns among NFL QBs, ranked 36th when it came to interceptions, second in QBR (116.3), and ninth in pass yards per game. The veteran was still efficient and should hopefully be able to play the full season in 2020. With an elite offense, Brees is a top-10 QB in redraft leagues and is a QB1. However, younger options like Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson are better starters because they also offer rushing upside.
Meanwhile, Swiss army knife QB Taysom Hill has been a versatile option for NOLA since coming to the team in 2017 as an undrafted guy. He is labeled as a QB in fantasy but has been used as a player with “do-it-all” capabilities. Interestingly, Hill’s fantasy label for 2020 will change:
With more flexibility, does this make the BYU product a fantasy-relevant player? Well, with his multi-dimensional abilities, you know that you can receive points in many ways. However, his usage is spotty. Last season, he finished with 55 passing yards on the season. The 29-year-old also compiled 156 rush yards, 5.8 yards per rush, one rush touchdown, 19 receptions, 22/581 targets (3.8 %), 234 receiving yards, and six rush touchdowns. It’s best to evaluate his role before picking him off the waiver wire during the 2020 season if it comes to that. He’s simply too risky to bet on for weekly fantasy production.
Adding to the QB room is former Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston. However, there is no reason to draft him at all in fantasy as Brees is the clear starter.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara remains a solid RB option for fantasy. Last season, he finished with 797 rush yards, five rushing touchdowns, 4.7 rush yards per attempt, 81 receptions, 97/581 targets (16.7%), 533 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. He had 401 rushing yards after contact and averaged 2.3 rush yards after contact per rush. The third-year player also had 53.8 percent of red zones rushes inside the 5 on this team, scoring three rush touchdowns off that. The RB provides equal value in the rushing and receiving game, which gives him much upside.
Ever since he entered the league in 2017, he finished fourth (2017), fourth (2018), and 16th (2019) in fantasy among RBs. He had a down year in 2019 as he dealt with injuries to his knee and ankle which led him to play 14 games and start in nine. However, the 24-year-old back hopes to return to his elite form in 2020 after having a full recovery from those injuries.
Based on his progress, Kamara remains a top-five or 10 RB and can be a solid RB1 on your team in redraft leagues as he has a rich role on a potent offensive team. He proved his high worth in years past for fantasy teams when he was healthy.
Backup Latavius Murray also proved he had something left in the tank last season after replacing longtime RB Mark Ingram II. The former Viking came in and notched 637 rush yards, 4.4 yards per rush, five rush touchdowns, 34 receptions, 43/581 targets (7.4%), 235 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown as Kamara was hampered by injuries. He saw 23.8 percent of red-zone rushes inside the 5, which led to two rush touchdowns.
The 30-year-old may not see these numbers again in 2020 as Kamara is expected to play fully healthy. Nevertheless, he may be worth stashing as depth in redraft leagues with 14+ teams.
Wide Receiver
At this point, the three receivers on the Saints with any fantasy relevance are Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tre’Quan Smith. We all know about Thomas’ elite fantasy value. The Ohio State product led the team with 149 receptions, 185/581 targets (31.8%), 1,725 yards, 11.6 yards per catch, and nine touchdowns. Even per his high career outputs, the 27-year-old had career-highs in receptions, targets, and yards in his fourth season.
He led NFL receivers in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and yards per game (107.8) all by himself and by a decent margin too compared to the second-best. The wideout had the second-highest catch percentage among pass-catchers (CTCH%) and second-highest percent share of team air yards (TAY%).
Next Gen Stats
With at least 100 receptions in three of the last four seasons, 100+ targets in the past four seasons, and four consecutive 1,000- yard campaigns, Thomas is simply on another level of fantasy stardom. The receiver should be considered the top at his position to be drafted. Whether you choose him with your number one selection in redraft leagues is up to you, but know his weekly stats and high value is too much to pass up. He’s a solid, reliable WR1.
Much of the receiving core is relatively unknown and unproven after Thomas. Veteran Emmanuel Sanders is now on the team, which should help NOLA keep a solid WR2 since Ted Ginn Jr. departed for Chicago anyway. Sanders played last season with the Denver Broncos and NFC champ San Francisco 49ers. The receiver proved he still has something left, even at 33.
When combining his stats across 17 games with both teams, the SMU product had a total of 66 receptions, 97 targets, 869 yards, and five touchdowns. With only Michael Thomas and Jared Cook ahead of him on the overall receiving depth chart, Sanders still has a chance to shine for fantasy owners. He’s a great addition in redraft leagues as a WR3 or flex piece when drafting. His value may change accordingly depending on how large his role ends up being and how quickly he can develop chemistry with Drew Brees.
Finally, 2018 draft pick Tre’Quan Smith rounds out the top-three on the NOLA WR depth chart. The 24-year-old has been a small factor in his two seasons so far. Last year, the UCF product notched 18 receptions, 25/581 targets (4.3 %), 234 yards, 13 yards per catch, and five touchdowns in 11 games played. He is not a reliable fantasy piece, but he could be good as roster depth in very deep redraft leagues of 16+ teams.
Tight End
Veteran Jared Cook enters his age-33 season as a valuable fantasy tight end. With the Saints lacking a solid WR2 last season, Cook stepped up and was a huge factor in the passing game. In his 11th season, the South Carolina product accumulated 43 receptions, 65/581 targets (11.2%), 705 yards, 16.4 yards per catch (career-high), and nine touchdowns (career-high). He finished sixth among fantasy tight ends last season. He also finished tied for fourth in reception touchdowns among NFL pass-catchers.
The veteran enters 2020 as the unquestioned TE1 on the team and is a top-10 TE in redraft leagues. He can be a capable TE1 on many fantasy teams considering his large role in the team and chemistry with Drew Brees.
The backup tight end is Josh Hill, who stockpiled 25 receptions, 35/581 targets (6.0%), 226 yards, and three touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 30-year-old has been on the Saints for seven seasons now, and the receptions, targets, and yards he accumulated last season were all career-highs. His role has not evolved into something massive, and it’s best to expect the same role he has always had for 2020 as Jared Cook is the clear leader atop the depth chart. The Idaho State product is not fantasy-relevant at all.
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