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MLB Betting Expert Picks (7/27/19): Moneylines, Totals

Welcome to the Saturday, July 27th edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.

  • Tuesday's Picks: 4-1 (80.0%) +315
  • Year-to-Date: 24-18 (57.1%) +457

In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like addition content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.

Here are my picks for Saturday, July 27th. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!

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Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners (-145)

O/U: 9

The Tigers and Mariners square off in a southpaw battle at T-Mobile Park in SoDo, with LHP Tyler Alexander and LHP Marco Gonzales locking horns. The Tigers have won just 11 of their past 54 games against American League West foes, while going 1-6 in the past seven against left-handed starting pitchers and 30-68 across the past 98 on the road.

The M's haven't been much better against southpaws, posting a 7-19 record in the past 26 vs. LHP, while going 3-7 in the past 10 at home against lefties. However, they're 6-2 in Gonzales' past eight outings, 5-2 in his past seven against losing teams while going 4-1 in the past five against AL Central foes. Detroit has struggled against everyone, but Seattle has particularly been hard on them. The M's have won five straight in this series, and 16 of the past 21 meetings in the Pacific Northwest.

My Pick: Mariners (-145)


Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Philadelphia Phillies

O/U: 10

The Braves roll out LHP Max Fried against Phillies RHP Zach Eflin in Game 2 of this National League East battle. The Braves opened the series with an emphatic 9-2 victory at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night, their highest run total in 16 games dating back to a 12-run outburst against Philadelphia on July 4. In fact, the past three times the Braves have scored nine or more runs have each come against the Phillies, including the last time they faced Eflin.

Eflin is 7-10 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 19 starts. The last time he faced Atlanta he coughed up seven runs - six earned - and seven hits with two walks and three strikeouts in just three innings of work, and he is 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA and 1.85 WHIP across 13 innings over his past three outings. The Phillies are 7-3 in Eflin's past 10 home outings, but just 1-10 in his past 11 tries against teams with a winning record, 0-4 in the past four starts overall and 1-5 in his past six home starts against winning clubs.

My Pick: Braves (-130)


Cleveland Indians (-225) @ Kansas City Royals

O/U: 9.5

The Indians have closed to within two games of the first-place Minnesota Twins after being down by double-digit games in late June. Cleveland can ill-afford a loss to the lowly Royals, and they'll get it done behind RHP Mike Clevinger.

Cleveland is 7-1 in Clevinger's past eight against teams with a losing record, and 20-7 in his past 27 against AL Central foes. That includes his outing on July 3 in Kansas City when he worked six scoreless innings with four hits, no walks and nine strikeouts in a 4-0 victory. He has recorded three quality starts in four outings since getting lit up for seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings at Baltimore back on June 28. Over the past three outings Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 25 strikeouts in just 18 innings.

RHP Glenn Sparkman tries to give his team a chance to win, but he is just 3-6 with a 4.67 ERA and 43 strikeouts with 20 walks in 79 innings over 11 starts and 19 appearances overall. He faced the Indians in Cleveland last time out, coughing up five runs - four earned - and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings in a loss on July 21, and he also was belted for five earned runs, seven hits and two walks in 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision in Cleveland on June 25. The Royals have won just three of his past 10 appearances, and they won't win this one either. It's hacky to take the Indians, or any other team, at more than -170. Roll with the run line instead.

My Pick: Indians (-1.5, -125)


Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-160)

O/U: 9.5

The Athletics look to stay hot while taking advantage of an ice-cold pitcher on Saturday night.

The Rangers are 0-9 in RHP Adrian Sampson's past nine road outings, while going 0-6 in his past six tries against teams with a winning overall record and 0-6 in his past six on the road against winning teams, too. The Rangers are also 1-4 in the past five on the road vs. RHP, while hitting in just three of their past 12 games overall. Texas has also won just thrice in the past 10 against divisional foes, while winning four of the past 13 inside the American League West Division.

The A's haven't been terribly consistent over the past week, either, going 1-5 in the past six overall while cashing in just one of the past five against winning sides. They're also 0-5 in the past five vs. RHP and 1-4 in the past five inside the division. However, they are 6-2 in the past eight at home, while going 11-3 in the past 14 following a loss. The Rangers have won just seven times in the past 26 trips to Oakland, and the A's will pile up enough early offense against Sampson to cruise to another victory at home.

My Pick: Athletics (-160)

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