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Welcome back RotoBallers! Friday May 10th sees a full 15 game MLB slate, with 14 games taking place in the evening session. As for the early game, the Cubs and Brewers square off continuing their divisional rivalry.
In this article, we will slice through the numbers and pick out our top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @benrolfe15 if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday March 10th. Good luck!
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Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
O/U: 10
I preferred this game when the line opened at 9.5 but even with the shift to 10 there is still potential here. Both starting pitchers in this game has struggled this season with Eduardo Rodriguez having a 5.40 ERA and Erik Swanson a 4.94 ERA. In addition, the Mariners rank first in the league in runs scored and home runs, with the Red Sox 11th in runs scored. As an added kicker the Mariners are a surprising 4-0 in road games when the total line in set at 10. Finally, in the Red Sox last five home games they have hit the over four times and pushed the fifth.
In terms of the spread I think both of these teams are valued correctly. The Red Sox should come out on top, but the Mariners offense shoud have enough firepower against Rodriguez to make it a close contest.
Recommended Picks: Total Over 10
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-1.5)
O/U: 8
This is really quite simple. On one side we have Lance Lynn and on the other we have Justin Verlander. One of those comes into this game with a 5.75 ERA and the other a 2.86 ERA. Strangely Verlander has only pitched at home twice this season, but in those two games he has allowed just four earned runs in 14 innings. Lynn has had his good moments this season, but he has allowed five or more runs in three of his seven starts, including last time out against a fairly weak Toronto offense.
In terms of the overall total, the Verlander factor stops me taking the over. As I writing this there are no team totals out for this game but if the Astros team total settles at 4.5 as I expect then I would look to play over. The Astros have scored five or more runs in four of their last six games.
Recommended Picks: Astros (-1.5), Astros Over 4.5
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (+1.5)
O/U: 7.5
These two teams met in Cincinnati just over a week ago in what was a high scoring series in great American ballpark. However, away from the hitter friendly confines of the Reds home park I expect things to look very different. Luis Castillo takes the mound for the Reds, and he currently owns an impressive 1.97 ERA on the season. One slight concern is that he gave up four runs last time out to this exact team, but the body of evidence before that outweighs any concerns I may have. These two teams rank in the bottom third of the league for batting average, OBP, runs and slugging %. The one place where the Reds rank highly is home runs (8th, 54), but with Oracle Park having horrible park factor numbers for home runs, that should be negated.
I really struggle to take a 16-22 team as favorites on the road, so I am going to lean away from the spread and instead focus on the total. In Reds road games where the total is set between 6.5 and 7.5 the under is 9-1, and Giants games with this spread have a 14-8-2 record for the under as well.
Recommended Picks: Under 7.5
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
O/U: 8
This game is unlikely to look much like the one on Thursday, when Patrick Corbin shut down the Dodgers offense. Friday's game sees Anibal Sanchez, with his 0-5 record and 5.15 ERA, square off with the 3-2 Kenta Maeda, who sports his own 4.66 ERA. Additionally, in games where the over/under is set between 8-and-8.5 the Nationals games hit the over 10-of-13 times, and the Dodgers games 9-of-17.
In terms of the spread I would lean on a Dodger bounce back. They are the better team here and the Nationals are a woeful 3-11 coming off the back of wins, covering the spread less than 30% of the time. The Dodgers are 8-6 when coming off the back of a loss, and an impressive 15-5 at home, covering the spread half the time.
Recommended Picks: Lean Dodgers (-1.5), Over 8
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
O/U: 9
This matchup sees Tyson Ross squaring off with Jake Odorizzi, in a duel between two pitchers having very different seasons. Ross has allowed 15 runs in his last 18 1/3 innings, while Odorizzi has allowed just 11 all season. Additionally, Odorizzi is coming off back-to-back shut out performances against the Astros and Yankees, and is currently in the form of his life.
In terms of picks, the Twins cover the spread at home 62.5% of the time and own a 11-5-1 record. Weirdly the Tigers do cover the spread 58% of the time on the road but the pitching imbalance here should see a comfortable victory for the Twins. In terms of the over, Tigers road games with similar spreads has seen the under hit 6-of-9 times. Ross being on the mound worries me we could see the over hit, but the likelihood is that this game goes under so I will lean that way.
Recommended Picks: Twins (-1.5), Under 9
