Nick Mariano's 2023 Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

March 15, 2023

2023 fantasy baseball tiered first base rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from RotoBaller's rankings expert Nick Mariano.

We're motoring down the basepaths and headed for first base in my fantasy baseball rankings series. Whether you're ponying up for a superstar or comfortable waiting on later value, there is much to discuss!

Some of you play with corner-infield slots, or maybe just an overall infielder, on top of the usual "1B" position. We've got you covered no matter the contest. And in case you missed any, you can see the rest of the positional rankings articles here:

• Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Saves+Holds Relief Pitcher Rankings

Traditionally, this position was filled with big boppers who weren't going to steal a bag. That's still true for some, but the landscape is far broader now. Alright, let's continue this ranking series with the scoopers at first and proceed with the tiered table and analysis.

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First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Roto Leagues

Tier One - First Base Rankings

I’m a big Vladdy man to start with, but Toronto’s team environment for 2023 is a promising one. We know Guerrero can swing the stick, even if we have a few groundball rate questions to answer. But if he can chip in nearly 10 swipes, then suddenly his ceiling approaches that of Aaron Judge.

I wouldn’t weigh John Schneider’s comments about being aggressive on the basepaths much if it were another offseason quote, but there’s evidence in all eight of Guerrero’s 2022 steals coming after Schneider took over. I believe! And while Freddie Freeman may not have Guerrero’s power ceiling, the elite average and sneaky 10-steal range on a potent Dodger team keep him squarely in the top tier.

John Schneider told reporters entering camp that baserunning aggressiveness would be increased.

Biggio and Espinal have steals today, Bichette thrown out trying to swipe second and now Springer thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double.

— Eric Treuden (@ETreuden) February 28, 2023

Tier Two - First Base Rankings

Don’t cry if you miss out on the top two, as Tier Two supplies elite, Home Run Derby-winning power in Pete Alonso and the reigning NL MVP in Paul Goldschmidt. If your first-round pick has some speed or you went ace, then getting a true 40-50 homer pop in Alonso forms a strong build.

Goldy’s power ceiling is lower, but he’s a perfect 19-for-19 on steal attempts in the last two seasons and casually sniffs a .300 or higher average. Pete did chip in five steals in ‘22, so he’s getting more comfortable on the basepaths, too. Enjoy!

Tier Three - First Base Rankings

Some may have Matt Olson in the second tier but his power tends to come with a lower average and he attempted zero steals in ‘22 after going 4-of-5 in ‘21. Perhaps the new rules will let him stretch his legs a bit, but I can’t project much there.

One of the bigger questions I have is whether we see any of 2021’s plate discipline gains again. Did he tighten up in a contract year? That 16.8% strikeout rate was beautiful, but he’s never been below 24% outside of ‘21. But he did play in all 162 games last year, something he also did in 2018, so the reliable volume in the heart of Atlanta’s order is still worthy of a top slot. And there's always optimism for lefty swingers in 2023!

Matt Olson was shifted on last year in 81 percent of all his plate appearances.

He'll be shifted on in zero percent this year ... and started his spring with a ground-ball single through the right side.

What a concept!

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 25, 2023

Tier Four - First Base Rankings

Here’s where things open up and I typically won’t leave a draft without one of these fellas. These six bats all fit a similar build in that you’ll get some combination of power and batting average. Assuming a healthy build before this tier comes up, I’m not leaping any one of them and seeing which one falls for value. That has typically been Nathaniel Lowe.

This can’t be surprising given the age-26 breakout after doing poorly in limited duty for Tampa Bay in 2019-20. He found new life in Texas with 18 home runs, eight steals, and a .264/.357/.415 slash over 157 games in ‘21. Good, but not terribly notable. Then ‘22 starts with a .381 average over his first 16 games, but only one homer limited the appeal before a slump that lasted until mid-May.

His final 125 games: 26 home runs with a .319/.376/.543 line (.919 OPS).  His aggressiveness in the box has risen but his zone-contact rate remains healthy around 86%. I’m happy to snag someone in the heart of the Rangers’ order. Again, play your draft as it comes to you with this.

Of Nathaniel Lowe's 27 HR last year, 24 came after June 1.

Most HR in AL from June 1-onward

44-Judge
27-Trout
25-SEMIEN
24-LOWE

— Jared Sandler (@JaredSandler) March 8, 2023

Tier Five - First Base Rankings

You don’t feel bad about rostering these players, but likely want them at CI rather than starting 1B. There’s just another layer of questions to be answered here. Do we get the power breakouts for Andrew Vaughn, Alec Bohm, and Jose Miranda? Will Anthony Rizzo’s back hold up? Will Milwaukee give Rowdy Tellez more chances against left-handers? How much pre-injury Ty France do we see in 2023? Will Cleveland have Josh Bell swinging aggressively?

Most of this is simply a matter of risk tolerance and being honest about your roster build’s needs. If you can gamble on batting average, then banking on a Rizzo or Tellez BABIP rebound is worthwhile. Both had fly ball rates around 45-50%, so low isn’t surprising, but respective marks of .216 and .215 were well below career norms. Otherwise, you’re likely targeting Vaughn, Bohm, France, Miranda, or Bell.

Tier Six - First Base Rankings

I was awfully tempted to put Triston Casas above this but we’ve only seen 95 MLB plate appearances thus far. He was crushed by bad luck with that .197 average (.208 BABIP) but slugged five home runs and posted a 20% walk rate. The great prospect’s momentum was stunted by an ankle injury at Triple-A early on in ‘22 but still flashed his incredible power and a disciplined eye for us. Mix in hitter-friendly Fenway, and I’m there.

Josh Naylor is probably my last “I’m comfortable with this” option in 15-teamers for my starting first baseman. Reliable pop in a plus lineup is nice, but if he starts losing work to a platoon with Gabriel Arias, then we're in trouble.

Joey Meneses started the draft season well within the top 200 but had started to slide as folks grew wary of the small-sample production. But then he smashed two longballs against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and the hype could be back. Debuting as a 30-year-old makes anyone suspicious, but coming up with a .371 BABIP and 25.5% HR/FB rate creates high expectations. He could crush 30 homers or be back down at Triple-A, so gambling around pick 200 as a CI or fifth outfielder/UTIL type is reasonable.

Brandon Drury had a .855 OPS with 20 home runs and 24 doubles/triples over 92 games as a Cincinnati Red to earn a trade to the Angels in early August. He then posted a .724 OPS with eight home runs and nine doubles in 46 games for the Halos. Statcast Park Factors have Great American Ball Park with a 110 factor for right-handed hitters, the second-best in the league, but Angel Stadium is fifth at 103.

But the HR factor is 145 (!) against 112. Having 45% more homers observed at GABP versus 12% is no small gap. I haven’t been targeting Drury but if the Angels stay healthy (big if), then a consistent spot within it yields tons of R+RBI opportunities, though hitting sixth isn’t ideal. Perhaps you’re more interested in Wil Myers, who suddenly gets to enjoy said GABP benefits?

There are many others here that make nice bench stashes in the early going. The target formula for those is a high upside that you can realistically identify early. If they flop, then you’ve got a drop in the early waiver-wire gold rush. This mold particularly fits Juan Yepez (will he get playing time?), Jared Walsh (does he rebound following TOC surgery?), Spencer Torkelson (does he make good on prospect outlook?), and Brendan Donovan (new power swing displayed this Spring).

#Cardinals Brendan Donovan made an approach change this spring. So far:
4HR in 28 PA - Just 5 in 468 PA in 2022
More aggressive leading to a 21.6% K% in his small sample (15% in 2022)

Showing an ability to sustain good contact skills while being more aggressive/hitting for power pic.twitter.com/qYoGkv3Nqs

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) March 11, 2023

Tier Seven and Below - First Base Rankings

These are the lower tiers for a reason (or three). The excitement is typically capped for one or more very good reasons. Maybe that's age decline (Joey Votto), big health concerns (Alex Kirilloff), or simple Eric Hosmer blockades (Matt Mervis).

Part of the ranking process is playing against ADP trends and looking to make efficient profits on draft day. You are likely in “get your guys” mode this late, so don’t read as much into granular ranks versus general tier plateaus. The players I’ve drafted the most from this group when seeking simple volume are LaMonte Wade Jr., Garrett Cooper, Hunter Dozier, Jesus Aguilar, and Dominic Smith.

I try not to talk as much about players who technically qualify at 1B on some sites but are likely used elsewhere. Trust me, I am about that Spencer Steer life.

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