RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 2/18/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! This morning was supposed to be a straightforward slate, but we know that is never the case with the game we love known as League of Legends. DRX and IG pulled off upsets while AL took LNG to a game three, with KDF being the only favorite to sweep. Uzi made his return to the big stage but fell short to the new and improved(?) IG as they look like a completely rejuvenated team coming out of the Lunar New year with Zika. Tomorrow, we have GEN once again looking to roll out Zest in the top lane, with Peanut, Chovy, Ruler, and Lehends back in the starting lineup. News could break that Doran is starting but I doubt he will be cleared by the LCK, so steer clear of the top lane for GEN if you have any doubts. Another key substitute tomorrow is Jay starting over YeG in the mid lane for LGD. They are some sizeable favorites on this slate so we have to choose our spots here, so let's get right into this five-game slate.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, February 18th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
LCK Matches
3:00 AM: T1 (-410) vs. KT (+310)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Rascal/Cuzz/Aria/Aiming/Life for KT, and Zeus/Oner/Faker/Gumayusi/Keria for T1. I would avoid the KT jungle spot, as GIDEON subbed in for a match during the KT vs BRO series last game. T1 is still undefeated in their 2022 spring campaign, but I wouldn't predict them to go undefeated the entire split. That being said T1 has the advantage in basically every team statistical category, except DRG% where KT has a slight edge. Another interesting angle is that KT is second in EGR(early game rating) right behind T1. If KT can keep early game close or even find an advantage, then they may have a shot at taking down the first place team at the moment.
T1 is 16-4 in matches played this split. It's very hard to pick against them at the moment especially with a volatile team like KT. KT swept GEN a few series ago, right after losing outright to LSB. This team can look like a top tier playoff team at some times, but also looks like a bottom tier team in other weeks. It's hard to pin this team down. I would pinpoint KT's biggest struggle in the draft phase. They are a team that wants to play around Aiming, similar to T1 playing through their bot lane, but sometimes that puts Aria in an uncomfortable matchup. If you want a chance at beating T1, everyone has to be on the same page in a comfortable matchup.
That being said, I will be taking shots at KT in large field tournaments. They have looked night and day in series this split, so I am very intrigued by a KT stack that will be virtually unowned tomorrow. Aiming and Rascal are the two players I want in my stacks, with some shares of Aria as well. As I mentioned, this team is very volatile and has looked like two different teams at points in the split. In T1's four losses this split, they average 17 deaths in those losses. KT is a solid teamfighting team and that bodes well for DFS, so I will be taking a stab at KT at these odds price. I see this match as a dog or pass spot, as KT aren't giving up a ton of kills in losses, and T1 at their expensive pricetags may not get there even in a sweep on a slate with three LPL matchups. KT or nothing for me, focusing on KT small stacks that I believe can still get there in three games.
Top KT plays: Aiming, Rascal, Aria
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5:00 AM: LSB (+357) vs. GEN (-485)
For this LCK match, we should see Zest/Peanut/Chovy/Ruler/Lehends for GEN and Dove/Croco/Clozer/Ice/Kael for LSB. I feel like a broken record when I write about these LSB games, who face off against a nearly full strength GEN. LSB is a team that can occassionally generate early game leads, but really struggles in maintaining those leads and pushing them in the mid/late game. LSB is coming off a victory vs BRO though. These two teams actually recently faced each other their first matches coming out of the new year break, and LSB managed to take a game off them before losing the series.
Stylistically, LSB wants to carry through their mid lane Clozer, and the top side of the map. But when your main carry has to face off against Chovy, you probably have to play for other paths to success. Dove looks to be the best target facing off against the subsititue for Doran in Zest, but I expect Peanut and Chovy to be aware of this and provide some backup. Ruler and Lehends will be completely fine in the two vs. two down in the bot lane.
It's GEN or nothing for me in this one, and GEN full stacks are somewhat intriguing as they should sweep and might carry low ownership because they are the most expensive team to stack on the slate. You can fit Captain Chovy with 4 RA including RA team slot, which might be the way that people go to in cash. I would avoid this combo in GPP's, and look to jam in one more GEN if you choose to stack them, pairing them with an LPL underdog. This match is probably a fade for me though, as LSB only average 15 deaths in their losses, and I don't think GEN will get there in a sweep as they should handle LSB easily enough. Maybe GEN comes out with the motivation to stomp LSB again, after dropping a game to the bottom tier team just a few series ago. I will sprinkle a couple of GEN stacks in the main GPP, but GEN team slot is my favorite TEAM play of the slate.
Top GEN plays: TEAM, FADE, Chovy, Peanut
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD (+129) vs. RA (-157)
Onto the fun matches right? LGD will be subbing in Jay for this one so do not roster YeG. It's also possible YeG subs back in if Jay has an awful outing, you never know. RA are slight favorites in this one and are riding a five series loss streak as both teams sit at a 1-5 record. LGD is one of the bloodiest teams in losses on the slate, while RA is typically not repeatedly dying in losses. RA have had a somewhat difficult schedule since their week 1 victory over TES, but have looked just plain bad in their two most recent losses to AL and IG. AL and IG seem to be improving though as the split goes on. On the other side, LGD are arguably the worst team in the league and rank in the bottom three in most team stats. They just lost a series vs team WE, in the return of Beishang. LGD are similar to AL in the sense that they either drop 20+ kills in a win or die 20+ times in a loss. I feel you have to grab pieces from this game on this slate.
I will be siding with RA in this one in a "get-right" spot here. One of these two bottom tier teams has to win, and I suspect whichever does will put up favorable DFS scores even in three games. RA holds a significant advantage in the DRG% department, with a 55% rate compared to LGD's 41%. Strive and Leyan are the engines that facilitate RA in their match wins. Iboy has been disappointing this split while Eric is coming off two strong performances. I can make the case for both sides here and usually side with the underdog in these types of matches. But I think this is a great spot to buy low on RA. I am not sure how ownership will turn out in this one, but I don't see RA being more than 20% owned as a full stack due to recency bias. LGD has performed somewhat well in their last two series, but RA has had six full days since their last series to recoup. They also have had two extra days to prepare for this series in particular. I think RA will come out with a new look in draft that they've practiced and can implement vs a fellow bottom tier team. RA full stacks and small stacks are in play for me, prioritizing Strive and Leyan with some Cube in there too. Iboy should be pretty low owned too so him at captain in large field GPP's is still in play for me.
Top RA plays: Strive, Leyan, Cube, Iboy, Yuyanjia (playing all of them lol this could end badly)
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4:00 AM: WBG (-437) vs. UP (+327)
WBG face off against UP in a matchup with two bot-centric mentalities. WBG are coming off a sweep vs EDG, handing them their first series loss of the split and have been steadily improving as the split goes on. UP has been competitive in most of their series this split, and has only been swept once by LNG to start the split. WBG ranks first in wards placed per minute in the league while UP ranks dead last in wards cleared per minute, huge vision advantage to WBG in this one. WBG also have the advantage in every position, with TheShy really coming into his own on his new squad. Huanfeng has had a quiet past couple of series for WBG, not surpassing more than 10 kills in his past two series. This has to change in this matchup in my opinion. When you are facing off against Elk, all the attention has to be focused in the bottom lane, and top lane is pretty much ignored until the later grouping stages of the game. Also, Angel has quietly been a top two mid laner in KP% and KS%, and this WBG team seems to be clicking on every level.
WBG ownership may be inflated after their great performance vs EDG, but I will eat the chalk and get different elsewhere. WBG have been the better team all split and are contenders for the championship while I think UP's ceiling is a playoff first round exit. Sure UP is worth shots in GPP's but with the clear vision advantage and bottom side map advantage for WBG, I can't get behind UP relying on Elk in this specific matchup. You could argue this as a letdown spot for WBG coming off a huge win where UP have had two extra days to prepare for WBG, but I don't see it happening. WBG or nothing for me, in full stacks and in small stacks, cash and GPP's.
Top WBG plays: Huanfeng, Angel, SoFm, ON, TheShy (prefer bottom side of the map in this one)
6:00 AM: FPX (+257) vs. EDG (-330)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is looking to shape up as an interesting spot for both teams. EDG is coming off their first loss of the split against WBG after facing probably the easiest schedule in the league up to that point. FPX have been competitive in all of their games so far this split and have taken games off of the top teams and have only been swept once by AL, back when Beichuan was still in. With Clid entering the starting lineup they have looked improved. Again, we are looking at two teams who primarily like to carry through their bottom lanes.
EDG face another playoff caliber team for the last game of the slate. EDG leads the league in DRG% while FPX sits at third. We could see a similar outcome to last series where EDG opt for the dragons while FPX look to play for Rift Herald and snowball the top side. Xiaolaohu has had an impressive debut split and plays the carries well in this meta. Flandre is somewhat underrated but is a great spot to attack if you'e playing this EDG team. EDG's bot lane is near never going to lose you the game, so you have to attack the top side of JieJie and Flandre as WBG did last time out. Lwx and Hang have also been having solid splits for FPX, so I don't expect them to roll over and get dominated in the 2v2, although it's very possible. EDG could focus on setting Lwx behind with the help of Scout and JieJie, but FPX having another two extra days and five days off to prepare for EDG probably means they know that Lwx shouldn't be the sole carry in this matchup. I am interested in the solo lanes for FPX in this matchup, but will be playing some EDG as well. I will be overweight compared to the field on FPX and underweight on EDG.
The most popular opinion would be that EDG, arguably the best team in the league still, bounces back here. I am only interested in two underdogs on this slate, and FPX is definitely one of them. I'll be hedging this matchup and be playing small stacks primarily from this one, as both sides aren't extremly bloody in losses, but there is some value in their pricetags to get there even in a three game series.
Top FPX plays: Gori, Xialaohu, Clid, Lwx
Top EDG plays: Viper, Scout, JieJie
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on WBG, RA, and KT with some exposure to EDG and GEN. It's a five gamer so you have to choose your spots, so I won't be playing any LGD as I expect them to be more popular than RA. GEN are very expensive tomorrow and could roll over LSB and not get there in a sweep. T1 looks to be slightly heavy favorites in my opinion against a KT team that has some high upside even vs the top teams.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are RA/WBG, RA/KT, and WBG/KT. WBG is overall my favorite stack tomorrow with RA coming in a close second. WBG should be chalky tomorrow and fit well with EDG and T1, which why I am targeting those two games for GPP's tomorrow.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, WBG is probably the go-to primary stack and can be paired with T1( I don't play cash but T1 seems like a decent cash option) or even EDG.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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