AL-Only Starting Pitchers: Late-Round Draft Fliers

March 22, 2021

Jamie Steed identifies late-round starting pitcher draft targets for AL-only leagues. These SP are deep sleepers worth targeting on draft day.

This year more than ever, starting pitchers are a sought-after position in fantasy drafts. Understandably, with uncertainty about innings limits in 2021, fantasy managers are keen to bolster their rotations with the defacto top-tier starting pitchers available.

As important as it is for your top starting pitchers to perform at an elite level, success in your league is regularly a result of those later-round picks who perform above expectations. You hear the phrase 'you can't win a league with your early draft picks, but you can lose it'. Whilst that's true, you can take a big step towards winning your league if you manage to unearth a hidden gem or two, especially a starting pitcher in the last few rounds of your AL-only draft.

Here, we take a look at some starting pitchers who could put up good enough numbers to warrant being a regular fixture in your starting lineups all season. All of whom have an overall ADP of 350 or greater in NFBC drafts and thus will be available in the later rounds of AL-only drafts.

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Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 368

Turnbull quietly put up solid numbers in the shortened 2020 season. In 11 starts (56.2 IP) he had a 4-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He struck out 51 batters with a 21.1% strikeout rate (K%) but did walk 29 batters which lead to a career worse walk rate (12.0% BB%). He's been somewhat overshadowed by the young arms the Tigers have coming through their system, but actually did ok in his first full season in the Majors in 2019 as well.

Despite a 3-17 record in 2019, Turnbull threw 148.1 innings (30 starts) and put up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. The Tigers won't be competing for a postseason berth this year but have a better lineup on paper now so should ensure Turnbull gets enough wins to be relevant. The fact the Tigers let Turnbull pitch deeper into games (or what's considered deep now) bodes well in that regard, with eight of his 11 starts last year going five or more innings.

Turnbull lacks the upside of some starting pitchers taken at a similar ADP, but his groundball tendency (48.5% career GB%) helps set a pretty solid floor. Turnbull is unlikely to cause any harm to your team's ratios and given where he's being taken in drafts, should be a solid (if unspectacular) addition to fantasy rosters.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 373

The Chicago White Sox enter the 2021 season as favorites to win the AL Central, largely due to their offense. But they've put together an interesting starting rotation and Cease figures to be a key part of it. Cease made his Major League debut in 2019, making 14 starts (73 IP) and had an uninspiring 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Cease's numbers were somewhat unlucky though as he had a 4.42 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA. The .326 BABIP and 21.4% HR/FB% also suggest Cease wasn't as bad as his ERA showed.

Last year, Cease started 12 games (58.1 IP) and had a 5-4 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The two things that stand out for Cease is his fastball velocity which averaged 97.5 MPH last year (up from 96.5 MPH in 2019) which did reach 100 MPH and his worryingly high walk rate that also rose in 2020 to 13.3% (up from 10.7%). Of Cease's 12 starts last year, six saw him give up three or more walks and four of them had five or more walks.

If he manages to cut down the free passes and avoid the complete disaster starts where he walks five or more hitters, Cease should be able to go deeper and pick up plenty of wins behind the White Sox offense. If the control improves, we could see Cease emerge as the White Sox pitcher you want most on your fantasy rosters, especially in AL-only leagues.

J.A. Happ, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 398

While Cease may be the exciting young starter with plenty of upside, Happ is the veteran who is the perfect roster complement if you chased upside earlier in the draft. Often derided in the Bronx, Happ actually had a solid season in 2020. In nine starts (49.1 IP), Happ had a 2-2 record, a 3.47 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. That proved to be a nice bounceback from his 4.91 ERA in 2019 and showed the Twins enough to sign the 38-year-old to a one-year deal worth $8 million.

Happ's 2019 ERA was actually the first time since 2014 he put up an ERA north of 4.00, outlining his consistency. Given that Happ is a flyball pitcher (career 39.5% FB%) and has spent the last two and a half seasons pitching in Yankee Stadium during the "live ball" era, he's arguably outperformed expectations. With the belief among teams and players being that the ball to be used in 2021 won't be as hitter-friendly and the move to the more pitcher-friendly ballpark in Minnesota, which has ranked in the bottom half of home run factor in each of the last three years, Happ should be able to put up another season with an ERA below 4.00.

The Twins division is one of the pitcher-friendliest on paper this year and the Twins offense projects to be one of the best in baseball so Happ could easily put up numbers representative of a top-25 American League starting pitcher.

Mike Foltynewicz, Texas Rangers

ADP: 646

Foltynewicz's 2020 was a disaster, but it's easy to forget as he only made one start. That one outing saw him give up six earned runs in 3.1 IP with four walks and three homers. The Braves released the 29-year-old righty but he was picked up by the Rangers and now has a chance to get his career back on track.

It was clear Foltynewicz wasn't his normal self during his start last year as his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH, down from 94.6 MPH in 2019 and 96.0 MPH in 2018. In his one Spring outings so far, his fastball is sitting around 95 MPH, which is a huge positive and could see him return to his 2018-19 numbers. In 2018, Foltynewicz had a 2.85 ERA over 183.0 IP before starting 2019 with shoulder issues and eventually being demoted to work through the problems. When he returned, Foltynewicz had a 2.65 ERA in the second half of the year in 57.2 IP.

Providing Foltynewicz maintains his velocity this spring, he could be the steal of the offseason for the Rangers and the steal of your fantasy drafts. The Rangers might have a so-so lineup but their new ballpark appears to be much more pitcher-friendly and could be the perfect place for Foltynewicz to reinvigorate himself.

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