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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/31/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We had another cash day on Saturday but I can't help but feel like it should have been a sweep. NC really dropped the ball by getting smoked 9-1 by Samsung. No one can or should expect them to win every series, but everything lineup for them to take down that game. Luckily we had two easy cashes in the other games to make the day worthwhile.
- Saturday, May 30: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 40-15
I'm sure some of you wonder why I don't include recommended units with my picks. Just assume that every pick is one unit. This is a weird term for most novice gamblers, but I'm sure if you're betting the KBO, you're not really a novice. Either way, I want you to decide how comfortable you are, based on my analysis, and make your decision from that. Like many say, don't bet something you're not comfortable losing.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Sunday, May 31st at 1:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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KT Wiz at Kiwoom Heroes (-113)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
KT: Je-seong Bae (1-1, 1.07 ERA)
Kiwoom: Seung-ho Lee (0-1, 5.23 ERA)
KT got spanked around by Kiwoom on Saturday and they've scored just four runs through the two games of this series. Things might look up though on Sunday. They get to face lefty Seung-ho Lee and the Wiz's .318 average against lefties is tied for first in the KBO. This average was higher before they faced Eric Jokisch on Friday but Lee isn't nearly as good as Jokisch. Mel Rojas Jr. is on a five-game hit streak but hasn't left the yard since May 23, meanwhile Yong-ho Cho is looking to build a role as a run producer. Despite being a left-handed hitter, he has a .444 average against southpaws with a double, two RBI and three walks.
Je-seong Bae has been KT's best starter behind Odrisamer Despaigne and he'll get a tough matchup against Kiwoom. The Heroes have a solid lineup, but they just haven't hit righties well this season. Bae has been great through 25.1 innings and has allowed just three runs, which includes shutouts against NC and Hanwha. His 14/2 K/BB leaves some to be desired, but he's stranded runners at 90% clip, which will definitely regress at some point, but for now, he's in great form.
Kiwoom brought the bats out on Saturday and scored double-digit runs for the first time since May 23. Dong-won Park and Hye-sung Kim hit home runs and drove in four apiece. They get a different challenge though against Bae, as the Heroes have struggled against righties, hitting just .244. When you consider their .268 average as a team, this is a a noticeable difference.
Seung-ho Lee has been a bit inconsistent so far, performing well against Hanwha and SK but getting touched up by better offenses in Samsung and NC. He's allowed 12 runs in 20.2 innings and scattered 22 hits but doesn't have much strikeout potential, having just one start with more than three punchouts.
KT is trying to salvage whatever they can out of this series and Bae's start comes at the right time. The Wiz offense is still one of the best in the league with a plus matchup against a lefty so there is definite value here. Bae delivers another strong start with some backup at the plate and they win to close out the series.
Pick: KT ML +104
Lotte Giants at Doosan Bears
O/U: 8.5 | ESPN at 1:00 am EST
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Dan Straily (1-2, 2.86 ERA)
Doosan: Chris Flexen (2-0, 3.12 ERA)
Lotte is in a pretty bad place right now after losing their last four and scoring just eight runs. They jumped out to a 3-0 advantage Saturday before the bullpen gave up four runs and then the game in the 11th inning. Dan Straily has been a stud for the Giants through five starts. He's given up just nine runs in 28.1 innings and has a 27 K%. One downside to the former Oriole is that his control has been a continued struggle, owning a near 12 BB%.
The Giants lineup is healthy, which makes their struggles even more odd. They're hitting just .220 w/RISP and haven't had much pop at the plate either, hitting just 15 homers, the second fewest in the KBO. The lineup is top heavy, with just four regulars hitting .280 or better. Jun-woo Jeon has been hitting well but not producing run, meanwhile Dae-Ho Lee is finally back in the lineup but he'll need a lot of help around him if this offense want increase production.
Minus a few blips, Chris Flexen has been dominant in his first KBO season. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start and has given up just five extra-base hits. The 25-year-old seems to have fixed the control issues that plagued him with the Mets, as he's got a 25 K% and just a 7.8 BB%.
When the Bears are visitors, they're a threat to score 10 runs per game, but when they return home, things change. The large park has hindered their ability for big games, as they hit just .238 with 48 runs scored and only five homers at Jamsil. Lotte is 4-1 in their last five home games but have scored just 20 runs in that stretch. Outfielder Jae-hwan Kim (foot) was removed from Saturday's game, so Jose Fernandez and Jae-il Oh will feel feel a little more pressure in the heart of the lineup.
Over their last seven at home, just twice has the total gone over 4.5 runs. With a matchup like Flexen vs Straily, these lineups will be under pressure the entire game. If Straily can maintain his control and Flexen keeps up his recent form, this should be a great game. However, both teams' bullpens have been used a lot over the last three days, so I don't want top put this in their hands, especially with Doosan's already shaky relief corps.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5
LG Twins (-120) at Kia Tigers
O/U: 8.5
Probable Pitchers
LG: Tyler Wilson (1-2, 4.24 ERA)
Kia: Drew Gagnon (2-2, 2.70 ERA)
The Twins lost yesterday, marking their first loss since last Sunday. LG now gets a tough matchup against righty Drew Gagnon who has spun shutouts in his last two outings. However, this lefty-heavy facing a righty should perk your eyebrows a bit. They're hitting a solid .302 against right-handers and with a guy like Roberto Ramos leading the charge, they have a dangerous group. The 25-year-old has hit safely in 10 of his last 11, including six home runs and 14 RBI.
Tyler Wilson has been great this year, sans his Opening Day start. He's allowed just four runs in his last three starts along with a 16/3 K/BB. He's a bit of a road warrior, allowing just 28 runs on the road over 15 starts in 2019 (1.86 per game). Kia has a solid lineup themselves but Wilson is much better than his baseball card numbers show right now.
Kia got a full team effort on Saturday and they're going to try for a series win Sunday. Preston Tucker and Hyun-woo Choi are heavy lefty bats that could give Wilson trouble and as a team, the Tigers are hitting .280 against right-handers. They're patient at the plate (91 walks) but have struggled w/RISP, hitting just .267 in that scenario.
Gagnon has a filthy changeup that has already caught the attention of opposing hitters. His last two start have been spot-on, scattering just five hits while allowing no runs with 17 strikeouts and just two walks. The former Met doesn't seem to get as much attention as some other foreigners but that's only a matter of time. Keep in mind his 0.94 WHIP isn't very sustainable and his .290 BABIP is much higher than the .200 average against him.
LG's lefty-heavy lineup gets a boost here against the righty Gagnon, and while he is performing better than Wilson right now, he's do for some regression in his underlying numbers. LG is 7-2 on the road, while Kia has had a tough time closing at home with a 5-5 record. Also, LG's bullpen is a bit better right now, and new closer Sang-kyu Lee has been great with four saves and a victory in his last five appearances. LG is the play here.
Pick: LG ML -120
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