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How the Jeff Teague Trade Shakes Up Fantasy NBA

Jeff Teague has officially been sent to the Indiana Pacers in a three-way deal. In return, the Atlanta Hawks receive the 12th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft from the Utah Jazz, while George Hill is on his way to Utah from Indianapolis. While this trade may have been eclipsed in the media by the trade that sent Derrick Rose to the New York Knicks, this trade has some major implications for Fantasy Basketball Managers -- and arguably involves much better players. Let's talk about the individual trade pieces and what this means for them first.

 

Jeff Teague and the Indiana Pacers

First of all, Jeff Teague is a 2015 All-Star and a high impact player. Last season in Atlanta he averaged 15.7 points, 1.2 steals, 5.9 assists, and 1.4 three pointers per game at a 40% efficiency from beyond the arc. His minutes went down from 30.5 mpg in the 2014-2015 season to 28.5 mpg this past season. This could be explained by the fact that Teague revealed he had played the entire season with a torn patellar tendon in his knee, an injury that didn't require surgery, but definitely hampered his game.

Teague will most likely stay rooted in his assists and steals averages from past healthy seasons, but it is possible his scoring takes a hit. While the other stars in Atlanta were big guys like Al Horford and Paul Millsap, Paul George is a SF. It is possible George takes away some outside scoring opportunities for Teague. Teague shouldn't worry about playing time, though, as he is easily the best floor general in Indianapolis now.

Teague will immediately take over for George Hill as starting PG. Last year, George Hill led a backcourt populated by historically shoot-first guards like Monta Ellis, C.J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, Joseph Young, and the washed up empty shell of Ty Lawson. Even with a messed up knee last year, Teague would have led the Pacers in assists by a healthy margin and trailed only Paul George in scoring. Everyone on this young Pacers team from superstar Paul George to 2nd year big man Myles Turner will benefit from having a true pass-first point guard like Teague running the show.

 

George Hill and the Utah Jazz

Now, to George Hill. In the 2015-2016 season Hill averaged 12.1 points, 1.1 steals, 3.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 1.7 three pointers at a 40.8% clip, and 34.1 minutes per game. His value comes from his defense, shooting, and rebounding when compared to other guards. The dangerous thing for Hill is that he needed nearly three quarters of time on the floor to produce these figures, which means his value could drop if a change in scenery causes a reduction in playing time.

Out of all of the players for the Jazz this season, George Hill would've placed third in assists per game behind Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward, first in 3PT FG% over Alec Burks with 40.5%, and second in playing time behind Gordon Haywards's 36.2 mpg. If the Jazz were willing to say goodbye to a lottery pick just to end up with 30-year-old veteran like George Hill, it is a little hard to believe that they would plan on significantly reducing his role, but even so, his minutes aren't likely to go up at his age, either.

Hill was owned in 83% of leagues last year. Fantasy Basketball Managers will still find value in Hill for his reliable distance shooting, consistent defense, and ability to rebound at 6'2'', but his situation may not be as strong for fantasy production. Hill will be playing with the 2015-2016 third worst offense in the NBA at 97.7 points per game after playing in Indiana's 102.2 points per game. His scoring may be hard to maintain considering Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood do most of the perimeter scoring in Utah, and Hill will be sharing the back court with other guards who may demand action including Mack, Trey Burke, and Dante Exum in his return from injury.

 

Dennis Schroder and the Atlanta Hawks

The player who's fantasy value is most affect by this trade is Dennis Schroder. Dennis Schroder will presumably be the main man at PG in Atlanta. This past season Schroder averaged 11.0 points, 0.9 steals, and 4.4 assists per game, while averaging a mere 20.3 minutes each contest. Per 36 minutes Schroder would have averaged 19.5 points, 1.6 steals, and 7.8 assists. With the increased playing time and role prominence, Schroder is going to make a huge statistical impact.

The Atlanta Hawks now hold the 12th and 21st overall picks. Rumor has it that they are trying to sell them off like a sack of magic beans. The Hawks are desperate to resign Al Horford and Kent Bazemore, which at the moment seems unlikely due to the large contract offers the two will be fielding soon. The Hawks are trying to trade the 1st round selections in order to gain the financial means to keep the core of their playoff roster. They want Horford and Bazemore so bad, they gave up All-Star Jeff Teague to make it happen. So it seems pretty unlikely that they end up making those picks come draft time. However, if a deal doesn't materialize, there are some interesting young prospects they can take for a spin. At the 12th pick, Mock Drafts had the Jazz selecting 6'7'' guard-forward Timothe Luwawu from Serbia while it was believed that the Hawks would take athletic forward Taurean Prince, who many see as a DeMarre Carroll type of player, from Baylor 21st overall.

If the Hawks do end up making these picks, it will likely mean they're in for a rebuilding process as they would likely be without possibly three of their five starters in Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore, and Al Horford. They could be looking for a guard to back-up Schroder and a center to replace Horford. They currently have some options on the wing with Tim Hardaway Jr and are safe for now at the other wing spot and at power forward with Kyle Korver and Millsap. If they select at #12, they may go with someone like Skal Labissiere or Henry Ellenson if they are still available, while grabbing Notre Dame alumni Demetrius Jackson at #21 could make some sense for their depth at guard.

Then again, the original projection of Taurean Prince to develop for the Carroll/Bazemore role in their lineup could be on point as well. The Hawks also hold the #44 and #54 picks in the second round, so they aren't in a huge rush to replace the recently departed holes. The main conclusion to take away from the #12 pick being sent to Atlanta from Utah is: if the Hawks sell off their picks, they are keeping Bazemore and Horford and not much will change in Atlanta except for Schroder being the starter. If they can't trade the picks, they have four chances to fulfill their needs. If that happens, those rookies have a great chance to make an immediate impact in the 2016-2017 season, while Schroder will have an even bigger role in their offense.

The NBA Draft is today at 8 PM. The clock is ticking for Atlanta. The Pacers have a new star in the backcourt, the Jazz have a new "Three and D" impact role player, and the Hawks have a big question mark. If they trade their picks in time to gain the capital needed to re-sign coveted players Al Horford and Kent Bazemore, then just watch the draft and see who received the picks and who they took. If they can't make a deal, then they might be missing three starters from their 48-34 fourth place team and a combined 42.5 points, 3.3 steals, 11.4 assists, 15.1 rebounds, and 88.4 minutes per game. We know what to expect with Jeff Teague and George Hill's new situations, but as for the Atlanta Hawks and the makeup of their roster, stay tuned to their Front Office activity leading up to the 2016 NBA Draft.

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