Garrett Crochet's 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Top Landing Spots and Fantasy Analysis

December 7, 2024

Garrett Crochet's 2025 fantasy baseball outlook and top landing spots. Tim discusses Garrett Crochet's potential team, and fantasy value based on where he signs.

Garrett Crochet's past prospect hype finally paid off during a breakout 2024 season, which eased some of the pain caused by the Chicago White Sox's historically bad campaign. The left-hander dominated in his first season as a full-time starting pitcher, striking out 209 batters in 146 innings (12.88 K/9, 35.1 K%) while walking just 33 (2.03 BB/9, 5.5 BB%) to spawn a 3.58 ERA.

Under team control through the end of the 2026 season, the left-hander could net the Pale Hose multiple key long-term pieces in a trade to start a rebuild in earnest. Which organizations sit in the best spots to make a run at the breakout candidate? How would each move affect Crochet's fantasy baseball draft value?

Plenty of teams have already leaked interest. We'll look at the reported suitors and ponder other teams who could join the fray at the Winter Meetings or afterward.

Garrett Crochet's Possible Landing Spots

Less Likely

New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Yankees have plenty of interest in a rotation upgrade, but not even the White Sox are primed to settle for too many Bombers prospects not named Jasson Dominguez and Caleb Durbin. Any way New York can acquire help without straight-up spending could help, though.

The Astros could look to shore up their already solid-to-great rotation if they want to upgrade and alleviate pressure on Spencer Arrighetti and the soon-returning Luis Garcia (elbow).

After missing the playoffs following a 2023 World Series runner-up trip, the Diamondbacks could add a top arm to complement Zac Gallen and hang with the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers and competing San Diego Padres.

More Likely

Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays

The Braves have a few internal upside options (AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep), a few that we've seen ceilings for already (including Bryce Elder), and one major unknown (Ian Anderson). Still, at least one of these names could be included in a splash deal for Crochet.

Atlanta got by with the likes of Grant Holmes at the back of another solid rotation last year. The Braves' motives could also change if they fail to re-sign their recent star lefty Max Fried.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Blue Jays are teetering between buying and selling, depending on how the Juan Soto sweepstakes go. Both teams have the farm systems to get a deal done, but Crochet will not be cheap.

Of course, we can't talk about a big offseason player and not mention the Mets, who are packing Steve Cohen's checkbook and win-at-all-costs mentality. The White Sox would ask for Brandon Sproat but probably will be rejected.

Most Likely

San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres likely will heavily figure into the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes but should upgrade at least two rotation spots, leaving them room to try to acquire Crochet. The Padres have plenty of farm pieces to get the job done, and a wise general manager should start the conversation with shortstop Leodalis De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas.

AJ Preller runs his team like a fantasy squad, and to overcome the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Pads will need to make a splash -- perhaps with Sasaki and Crochet.

For the Phillies, top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is being brought along slowly following 2023 Tommy John surgery. The glaring hole at the No. 5 spot in the Phillies' rotation makes them less patient in filling it.

Garrett Crochet 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Crochet's end-of-season ERA already took into account what might've been a downfall from aggressive 2025 drafters.

In fact, xERA (2.83), FIP (2.69), and xFIP (2.38) say he should've been even better. The good fortune from his 73.6 left-on-base percentage is balanced by his unlucky .318 batting average allowed on balls in play.

While Chicago has nowhere to go but upward, escaping that franchise in any form would elevate Crochet's chances at building on his six wins from 2024. This alone would push his rotisserie value skyward for the dollars gained that would come with even a 10-win season.

The biggest question mark sits in the expected innings increase for a team that buys into Crochet's 2024 success. Would his rates and velocity last throughout a full season of 170-plus innings?

The cutter he threw more frequently last season partially alleviated this concern. This author looks more closely at pitchers who add cutters. It's a less strenuous way to round out an arsenal, increase strikeout potential, and build stamina.

Still, leaping from 12.2 innings to 146 in a year should offer at least a hint of pause when buying in for repeated success.

Crochet's mix of promising developments and workload concerns could temper his cost. The 25-year-old is best valued as a midrange No. 2 fantasy starting pitcher in mixed leagues, with the high ERA from last year already a decent expectation for the coming year.

Landing with a perennial contender to enhance Crochet's wins potential could add an unwanted draft tax to remove any chance at profit, especially in AL- or NL-only games.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis