We’re eleven games into the Arizona Fall League, so we are starting to get enough information to form some first impressions. So how are things going down there for some of baseball’s best and brightest prospects? Let’s have a look.

Top Performers Of The AFL

Brooks Pounders, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals

Pounds lost a huge chunk of time in 2014 due to Tommy John surgery, then lost April, May, and a good part of June due to a lat injury. Pounders spent time at four different levels in 2015, and between the four he finished the year with a record of 3-5 with a 2.50 ERA over 15 starts, with 51 strikeouts and 23 walks in 68 1/3 innings. He allowed just four home runs in that time, which works out to roughly one home run every two complete games. The lack of innings made him a perfect candidate for the AFL, and he has been simply amazing in his three starts thus far.

Since it is the AFL, he isn’t going deep in games, as he has just 12 innings, but in that time he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and he has allowed just five hits while striking out 14 and walking none. Pounders might not have walked into the Arizona Fall League on many people’s prospect radars, but if he continues to pitch this well, he’s definitely walking out on it. Since he hasn't competed in the upper minors, the now-25-year-old Pounders (he turned 25 on September 26) will be back in the minors to open the year. However, his performance has earned him at least a promotion to Triple-A with an appearance in the majors coming at some point in 2016 in all likelihood.

Gary Sanchez, Catcher, New York Yankees

There is no hitter even close to as hot as Sanchez is in the Arizona Fall League right now. Through eight games, Sanchez is hitting .457, with five home runs, two doubles, 15 RBI, seven runs scored, and he even stole a base. Sanchez’ slugging percentage is a ridiculous .943 right now, giving him a Bonds-ian OPS of 1.402. The 22-year-old Sanchez (he turns 23 on December 2) has hit at every stop in the minors, and the prospect ranked fifth-best in the Yankees’ system by MLB.com earlier this year hit .274 in 93 games between the Double-A Eastern League and Triple-A International League, with 18 home runs, 62 RBI, 50 runs scored, and seven stolen bases in nine attempts.

Dominic Smith, First Base, New York Mets

We highlighted Smith as a player to watch on the Salt River Rafters, and so far, so good on that front. Smith is coming off of a great season in the Florida State League. The power he teased and the excellent plate discipline that he demonstrated have continued out in the desert. Through eight appearances with the Rafters, Smith is hitting .519 with one home run, four RBI, and seven runs scored in 27 at-bats. Regarding the plate discipline, he has nine walks and just six strikeouts, bringing his on-base percentage up to an astronomical .639, and his three doubles combine with that homer to give him a slugging percentage of .741. Oh, and he just barely turned 20 in June. There is so, so much to love about Smith.

James Paxton, Starting Pitchers, Seattle Mariners

As we talked about when looking at the Peoria Javelinas, James Paxton isn’t exactly a prospect so much as an awesome young pitcher needing innings thanks to two consecutive years of significant time lost to injury. Guess what? He’s not injured! Even better, he’s actually pitching pretty darned well too. Through three starts, Paxton is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA. Over 10 1/3 innings, Paxton has struck out nine while walking just three. The only question for fantasy owners has been whether he would have to declare his arm as a carry-on when getting on the plane, but it’s clearly attached and working just fine.

Adrian Houser, Starting Pitcher, Milwaukee Brewers

One of the four players the Milwaukee Brewers acquired in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade, Houser was a second-round pick out of high school by the Astros in the 2011 draft. His rise through the minors has been slow and largely unimpressive, and he was being torched in the Texas League before the trade, with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.21 in seven appearances, five as a starter.. He has a mediocre 23:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 33 1/3 innings.

In fairness, almost every pitcher gets roughed up in the Texas League, but the league isn’t so brutal that it can explain how he suddenly became an ace after the trade. He did, though, as he was 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA in seven starts with the Biloxi Shuckers. That horrible strikeout-to-walk ratio suddenly became amazing, as he struck out 32 and walked just six in 37 innings. His home run rate dropped, and his batting average against declined from .293 with Corpus Christi down to .232 to the Biloxi.

Now pitching for the Surprise Saguaros, that success continues, with a record of 1-0 and a 0.90 ERA in three starts. He's allowed six hits and five walks over 10 innings while striking out eight and posting a batting average against of .171. The Brewers will likely send Houser to Triple-A to open the season, with the 22-year-old Houser (who turns 23 shortly before the start of the 2016 season) making an appearance at some point in the bigs, while 2017 is likely a better bet for when he joins the rotation.

So, that’s some of who’s hot. What about the players that aren’t? That’ll be in our next edition of Future Tense – see you then!

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