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What a Championship Series MLB has provided us. We get our second game seven in as many days. The Rangers will return home and wait to host game one of the World Series, welcoming the Phillies or Diamondbacks into Globe Life Field on Friday. Tonight, we get rookie Brandon Pfaadt pitching in the biggest game of his life against veteran Ranger Suarez for a birth to the big dance. I will provide my favorite MLB Betting Pick and Player Prop on tonight's single-game slate.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks and player props for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 24, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, team totals, as well as pitcher and hitter props. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Phillies
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI (-175)
ARZ: Brandon Pfaadt | PHI: Ranger Suarez
The Phillies lost their first game of the entire postseason at home last night, 5-1. Tonight, they send their veteran southpaw Ranger Suarez to the bump. In his three postseason starts, Suarez is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 3.03 SIERA, 25.5% K%, and a 10.5% SwStr%. As always, he has kept the ball on the ground to 55.6% GB%, which will play big in this hitter-friendly ballpark.
His opponent, the 24-year-old Brandon Pfaadt, has also shined in the postseason. Pfaadt enters his fourth postseason start today with a 0-0 record 2.13 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, 31.3% K%, and a 15.1% SwStr%. He does allow a 41.9% FB%, and the strikeout rate this season was 22.3% K%, so some regression is coming. Will it be tonight? I'm going to bet on it.
I expect the Phillies to come out and put much pressure on the rookie, especially at home. Pfaadt has been great, but I will side with the experience of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Ranger Suarez. I don't want to lay -175 juice on the moneyline, although I think they win this game. I will take the first five -0.5 run line for the Phillies at -120.
Pick: Phillies Fist Five -0.5 Runline (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Bryce Harper OVER 1.5 total bases (+125 DraftKings SportsBook)
The best players in the world show up for the biggest games. You saw it last night with Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Altuve reaching their total base props. Harper is the next in line. You can all recall what he did last season in Philly against the Padres when he hit an opposite home run late in the game to send the Phillies to the World Series against the Padres.
Pfaadt this season had a .358 wOBA, .241 ISO, and a 52.3% hard hit against left-handed bats. He is pitching much better, but Harper has been elite this postseason. He has a 210 wRC+ and a 1.201 OPS. I think Harper goes yard tonight, quickly achieving his over in total bases.
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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