Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

June 26, 2024

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Detroit GC. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic outright betting card.

The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the over two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 24 outright winners (a 20.3% hit rate) for a profit of over $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 35.7%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic!

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Card

Min Woo Lee (21-1)

Min Woo Lee has won two of his last four starts worldwide, including last week’s Australian PGA.

He now has a 3-shot lead halfway through the Australian Open.

pic.twitter.com/0PT50riGtm

— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) December 1, 2023

I've long been a believer that Min Woo's stateside breakthrough was most likely to come at one of the more benign layouts on the PGA Tour, and with five consecutive top 30 finishes on the recent form sheet (three of which coming at Major Championships), it's clear that the Aussie is rounding into form at the perfect time for a venue he should be brilliantly suited for.

Lee's combination of elite distance and a putter that can get white-hot profiles very similarly to the one employed by Bryson DeChambeau out of 2020's COVID break, where the now two-time Major Champion recorded his first win since his stark transformation. Notably, the two wins last fall that catapulted Min Woo into one of the clearest breakout commodities heading into the new year came at 30 and 20-under respectably: showing that the young Aussie has no problem taking it deep on a somewhat defenseless layout.

Min Woo's elite long-term short-game splits also make him especially tough on Par 5's: recording a scoring average of 4.57 on the DP World Tour last season, and ranking second in this field over his last 50 rounds on the PGA Tour. If his currently trending iron play (gained strokes in three of his last five starts; top 30 in Birdie Chances Created in 2024), can prove sustainable, Min Woo looks to be on the precipice of a long-awaited trip to victory lane.

Ryan Fox (55-1)

Huge moment from Ryan Fox, what a birdie!pic.twitter.com/jnZ4YV0eSo

— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) September 17, 2023

Another highly accomplished player on the European Tour, Ryan Fox is still looking for an elusive stateside breakthrough. The 28th ranked player in the world just six months ago, Fox has long been established as one of the world's most prolific ball-strikers. And although he hasn't yet been able to replicate his worldwide exploits yet on the PGA Tour, the underlying numbers show a player primed to give it a great run in this beleaguered field.

Over his last 50 rounds, Fox sits inside the top 20 in Driving Distance, Birdie or Better Percentage, and Strokes Gained: Putting. He ranks third in this field in Weighted Proximity <150 yards, and over his last two starts, he's gained a combined 10.9 shots to the field on the greens. That sort of recent putting upside (and long-term ball-striking pedigree), makes for a compelling play above 50-1 in a field that includes just one name inside of the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings.

Don't forget that just nine months ago, Fox captured the flagship of the DP World Tour at Wentworth -- beating out players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood in the process, and secured two additional wins in Europe the season prior. The American audience may not be entirely aware of just how battle-tested this veteran New Zealander is -- and with three top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour over his last seven starts, the recent form is more than compelling enough to take a shot at these inflated numbers.

Nicolai Hojgaard (66-1)

Nicolai Højgaard with a massive birdie at 10, Scottie Scheffler just had a double bogey here and falls to 4th

Hojgaard is your new leader at -7 and is +650 to win The Masters

pic.twitter.com/dcnCM4imNI

— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) April 13, 2024

If the case for Ryan Fox was convincing enough for you, I suspect you'll also be a fan of Nicolai Hojgaard 10 points further down the odds board. Like Fox, Hojgaard has already built a sterling reputation across the pond: winning not only the 2022 Italian Open at Marco Simone, but also capturing 2023's Year-End Championship over many of the same star cast members Fox overcame at Wentworth two months prior.

Hojgaard also shares Fox's combination of elite driving distance (18th in this field), wedge play (4th), and recent putting upside (gained 6.1 shots on the greens in his last start on bentgrass -- 2024 Canadian Open). It wasn't long ago that I touted Nicolai under 20/1 at the Mexico Open: a venue with a similar profile of distance-bias and easy scoring conditions. Four months later, at over triple the price tag, I'll gladly sign up for another ride on the Hojgaard breakout express.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Nick Dunlap (66-1)

U.S. Amateur champion Nick Dunlap with a birdie on 1 in his first U.S. Open as a professional. 🔥👏 #USOpen pic.twitter.com/ihKoS8L7GA

— New York City of Brotherly Love (@NYCOBL) June 13, 2024

In a field that includes four of the world's top five amateurs (via WAGR), let us not forget that Nick Dunlap was a member within their ranks before his victory in January's American Express Open in Palm Springs. Since that historic week, the Alabama product has acquainted himself well in the world of professional golf: logging four top-30 finishes in his last nine starts -- a feat that is more impressive when you consider that as a Tour Winner, he's teeing it up most weeks in elevated fields with the biggest names the PGA Tour has to offer.

This week, on a golf course that should not only be more conducive to Dunlap's powerful style of play, but will also be devoid of many of the elite talents he's typically used to contending with, 66-1 feels like a very fair price for one of the game's brightest young talents. Despite an increased strength of average field that lowers the baselines of many field-specific statistics, Dunlap leads this field over his last 50 rounds in Par 5 scoring, he ranks 12th in Birdie or Better Percentage, and well above field average in both driving distance and putting from 5-15 feet.

Unlike many of the exciting young projections present in Detroit this week, we've got tangible proof of Dunlap finishing the job on this stage. He overcame two legitimate top 20 players in his win earlier this year in Palm Springs, and had to employ a similar no-holds-barred approach to get to his eventual winning score of 29-under par. At 66-1, the 20-year-old is more than capable of repeating the trick this week.

Daniel Berger (100-1)

DB STRAIT DART THROWIN🎯

Daniel Berger with a beautiful birdie in his first round since the 2022 US Open👀#TheAmExGolfpic.twitter.com/OmFwbHV6qX

— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) January 18, 2024

No matter how many months pass since Daniel Berger's reign as one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour, it remains jarring to me to see him priced this far down the odds board in an event with just one member of the OWGR Top 20 in attendance.

While the results on Daniel's comeback trail have been more sporadic than we were used to years ago, there are still recent signs that point to the former World No. 12 recapturing the form that earned him a spot on the 2021 Ryder Cup team. Two weeks ago at Pinehurst, Berger recorded a tie for 21st (his second best result of the season to date), and gained a whopping 10.7 strokes to the field from tee-to-green -- the best tee-to-green performance he's recorded since his win at the 2017 St. Jude Classic, and the sixth best overall mark of his entire career.

Berger has remained his same, metronomic self with with his ball-striking: gaining strokes off of the tee in all but two of his 11 2024 starts, and gaining an average of 2.8 strokes on approach over his last five events. Daniel has already notched a 13th-place finish at the Byron Nelson last May -- an event with a similar breakneck pace to what we should expect in Detroit this week, so if the putter can show a modicum of life comparable to his career baselines, this 100-1 price may look like one of the bargains of the season by weeks end.

Michael Thorbjornsen (100-1)

WHAT. A. SHOT!@StanfordMGolf's Michael Thorbjornsen plays it beautifully for birdie.

📺 Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/TLeryXGsiJ

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 30, 2023

Two years ago, the Wellesley, Massachusetts native recorded a top-five finish at the Travelers Championship (briefly sharing the lead in that tournament on Sunday afternoon with eventual champion Xander Schauffele). He's already recorded two top-20 finishes overseas with sponsor's invites at the 2023 and 2024 Dubai Desert Classic, and shot three finishing rounds of 63-66-68 to finish in a tie for 17th at last year's John Deere Classic to finish (ranking eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green that week in the process).

Thorbjornsen has every tool you'd look for in a modern day prospect profile for the PGA Tour: tall, athletically-built, with a swing you could already put up against some of the game's top ball-strikers. He's perhaps best known for being on of the better all-around drivers of the ball in the amateur ranks: a talent he put on full display when paired with fellow wunderkind Ludvig Aberg over the first two days of last week's Travelers. Thorbjornsen not only drove it more accurately than one of the game's best Total Drivers, he also kept up with Ludvig's elite length when River Highland's layout allowed them to open up.

Detroit GC's far less punitive routing will allow Thor to wield his biggest weapon at a far greater frequency this week, and when paired with a putter that has already paced the field 0n similarly blended green complexes (+9.6 SG: Putting at the 2022 Travelers), plus a short game that ranked ninth in last week's elevated field (+2.8 SG: ARG), I have no doubts that we could see this kid find the first page of many leaderboards down the stretch of his debut season.

Jake Knapp (125-1)

DON'T SLEEP ON KNAPP!

Jake Knapp with a birdie on the 18th to move 1 shot back of the lead. pic.twitter.com/mEWCEwKoCD

— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) May 4, 2024

It hasn't necessarily been the seamless rise to stardom for Jake Knapp after recording a win, a third, and a fourth in three of four starts to begin his 2024 campaign, but perhaps a step down in class is just what the Californian needs to regain a bit of momentum in his breakout season. Knapp has't faired particularly well since his inclusion in the exclusive rotation of PGA Tour Signature Events: logging three missed cuts and no finish better than 45th in nine attempts.

However, Knapp has shown a repeated proclivity for excelling in weaker fields in his debut campaign -- and particularly those on golf courses that feature driver-heavy layouts and a ton of scoring opportunities (Mexico Open, Byron Nelson, Cognizant Classic, etc.). Jake's elite driving distance should play exceptionally well around a venue in Detroit GC that provides very little consequence for off-line tee shots, and he ranks inside the top 15 in Weighted Proximity over his last 50 rounds (third in Birdie Chances Created). I'm willing to overlook this rough recent form on golf courses like Pinehurst, Muirfield Village, and Bay Hill, and trust Knapp can once again prove his merit on a dream course fit at this inflated number.

Pierceson Coody (200-1)

Birdie-birdie-birdie finish for the Texas native 🤠
@Pierceson_Coody moves into a tie for second heading into the weekend @CSChallengeFW. pic.twitter.com/kjq6qyemcU

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 25, 2024

Completing my card of seemingly endless toolsy young talents, Pierceson Coody stands out as the week's most compelling long-shots deep into the triple digits. Although his twin brother Parker has been a bit more of a reliable entity from a ball-striking perspective to this point in their PGA Tour careers, Pierceson can boast a much more extensive amateur resume and already has three professional wins to his name since graduating from the University of Texas two years ago.

Pierceson also possesses the requisite combination of power off-the-tee and putting upside I'm looking for at this venue (13th in Driving Distance; 8th in SG: Putting this season), and ranks 11th in Birdie or Better Percentage. Two of Coody's three Korn Ferry wins came at scores of (-20) and (-25) respectfully, and both came on bentgrass greens in the Midwestern/Northeastern part of the country. Given the lack of field strength this week, I always like leaning on volatile young talents at these inflated numbers. Coody is a name I've been looking to buy for some time, and last month's top five at the Charles Schwab only gave me more reason to believe he's capable of fulfilling his lofty amateur ambitions.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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