RADIO
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Memorial outright betting card.
The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 20.0% hit rate) for a profit of nearly $14,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 33.8%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. Still, suppose you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process. In that case, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Memorial Tournament!
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The Memorial Betting Card
Collin Morikawa (16-1)
Birdie to tie the lead for @Collin_Morikawa 💪pic.twitter.com/iChopGxIHj
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 18, 2024
As Collin Morikawa has recorded one of his more consistent stretches in recent seasons (three top-fours; no finish worse than 16th in five starts), I have found myself strangely hesitant to buy into the most profitable golfer in my long-term portfolio.
Much of my concern revolved around the splits we were seeing in his most reliable long-term skill: his iron play. In an eight-start stretch from Pebble Beach to Quail Hollow, Collin was not only coming in far below his career-long splits of 3.1 strokes gained/start -- he was shockingly rating out below the baselines of the average PGA Tour player. Collin gained strokes in just two of those eight starts from February to May, a shocking run of form for a player who, in the two seasons prior, had lost strokes on approach in just three of 36 tournaments.
However, one potential positive that came from this uncharacteristic stretch of iron play has been the recent developments to Collin's short game: as in that same eight-start stretch from Monterrey to Charlotte, Collin gained strokes to the field with his short game in 75% of his events. Collin ranks ninth in this field in SG: Around the Greens over his last 36 rounds and has gained strokes, putting in four of his last five starts.
These recent improvements are all the more exciting for his supporters when you look under the hood at Collin's last two starts. In fourth-place finishes at Colonial and Valhalla, Morikawa's trademark ball striking has finally found its footing, gaining a combined 7.3 strokes on approach. His driver has remained as metronomic of an entity as you'll find in the sport: ranking second in Driving Accuracy and sixth in Good Drive Percentage. And, of course, Collin has already built up a prodigious track record around Jack's Place at Muirfield Village.
Collin won the inaugural Workday Charity Open here at Muirfield Village back in 2020 -- the first of two consecutive events in Dublin after the COVID break. He lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay the very next year, and twelve months ago, Morikawa looked to be a central part of the Memorial storyline once again: sitting just two shots back of the lead Sunday morning before a back injury forced him to withdraw.
In five career starts in Dublin, Collin has yet to lose strokes in either of the two ball-striking categories. His trademark left-to-right cut will suit many of the tee boxes designed by one of the game's most iconic faders, and if recent form is to be believed, Morikawa also comes into the week with as much confidence as we've ever seen from the two-time Major Champion. Things are as well aligned as I've seen for Collin in years, and I believe it's only a matter of time before he finds his way back into the conversation as one of the best players on the planet.
Viktor Hovland (20-1)
Viktor Hovland now trails by only 1 shot after an impressive birdie at the 12th🇳🇴#PGAChamppic.twitter.com/CgYZ5uVGQW
— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) May 19, 2024
After spending most of PGA Championship weekend lamenting not staying bullish on Viktor Hovland off of the best ball-striking performance of his season a week earlier, his sterling tee-to-green display in Louisville was all I needed to buy a ticket back on board the Hovland express this summer.
According to Viktor himself, it took just 30 minutes with former coach Joe Mayo to reintroduce the feelings he had over the ball during his world-beating run through 2023. And from the eye test alone, Hovland seemed in full control of his bag at the year's second Major. The driver was once again at its metronomic best as Vik hit his patented pull-cut off of every tee down the stretch Sunday afternoon -- missing just two fairways in the process of gaining a whopping 1.77 strokes OTT.
The iron play was equally as impressive, as Hovland gained 6.74 strokes on approach over the final three days in Louisville -- hitting 81% of his greens in regulation on a golf course that featured just 5/18 approach shots inside of 170 yards.
The putter made clutch putt after clutch putt as Vik made his Sunday charge before cruelly cooling off on makable birdie looks at 17 and 18. However, I don't think you could find a single golf fan who watched this weekend's action and didn't get at least a few flashbacks of the killer we watched take over the golfing world a few short months ago.
Hovland recorded the best tee-to-green performance we've seen from him since last year's runner-up finish in the PGA Championship -- a result that coincidentally spring-boarded him into a win at Muirfield Village two weeks later. I don't think it's far-fetched to consider him among the leading candidates to replicate that feat in 2024, and even as books to slash his price back below 20-1, Viktor Hovland is an entity I cannot wait to add back into my betting portfolio.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Justin Thomas (35-1)
JUSTIN THOMAS. YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS. 🤯🔥
Ridiculous flop shot holeout on 14 gets the Louisville kid to 9-under and four back!
🎥 @PGAChampionship | #PGAChamppic.twitter.com/n5zfjIlT5S
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 18, 2024
He couldn't make enough putts to contend in his Louisville homecoming, but the tee-to-green display put forth by JT at the PGA Championship was as impressive as we've seen from him in a handful of seasons. Thomas gained over four shots to the field with his driving, iron play, and short game -- recording his best tee-to-green week since losing in a playoff to Collin Morikawa at Muirfield Village four years ago.
Those sublime ball-striking marks have vaulted Thomas to fifth in the year-long Strokes Gained rankings, and at 35-1 this week at another Nicklaus course, I'm willing to ride the hot hand at a venue where JT three top-eight finishes over his last seven starts. Thomas hasn't lost strokes with his driver around Jack's Place since 2017 (six starts), he ranks sixth on Tour in SG: Approach thus far in 2024, and sixth Around the Greens.
Of course, the recent putting splits haven't been particularly pretty for the Alabama product, but even at the best of times at the top of the world rankings, Thomas was far from a reliable entity with the flat stick. At Muirfield Village, however, he has gained at least two strokes on the greens in five of 10 career starts. That kind of positive history is cause for added optimism -- especially with how he's trending from tee to green. At prices over 30-1, there's more than enough in the recent profile to take a shot on the two-time Major Champion in his quest for a long-awaited win.
Tony Finau (65-1)
🎯 Great shot by Tony Finau @FinauLegion
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) May 17, 2024
The fifth-best iron player and ninth-best from tee-to-green on the PGA Tour thus far in 2024, Tony Finau has routinely found his greatest success on the schedule's most demanding, long-iron intensive courses. Back in January, Tony gained seven shots on approach (8.3 from tee-to-green), around 7,700-yard Torrey Pines. He recorded the fourth-best tee-to-green week of his entire career (+14.4), at 7,400-yard Memorial Park, and just three weeks ago, Finau gained a whopping 9.6 shots on approach at 7,600-yard Valhalla -- the second-best iron week of his career.
Now priced at 65-1 at 7,500-yard Muirfield Village -- a course that features a similar distribution of the long-irons that Tony has proven to be so prolific at, I believe there's some real upside to be found in this ball-striking profile. Tony has four top 15 finishes already to his name around this venue. He's coming off of one of the better driving weeks of his season around Colonial's claustrophobic confines (60.7% Driving Accuracy; 2.3 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee), he hasn't lost strokes with his driver at the Memorial since 2016, and ranks inside the top 20 in both recent Around the Green play and long-term bentgrass putting.
Priced alongside (and even behind), players with nowhere near his credentials, I intend on remaining bullish on Tony's winning prospects as the calendar turns to his one of his most successful historic runs. In this sort of form, 65-1 feels like a really disrespectful number for the six-time Tour winner.
Will Zalatoris (110-1)
From 194 yards to eight feet. Will Zalatoris eagles No. 13 to reach three under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/vv5owmwjFZ
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 11, 2024
Speaking of players that tend to thrive when scoring conditions get tough and tees get put all the way back: Will Zalatoris at 110-1 Monday morning was one of the more jarring prices I've seen all week. It's been a sporadic comeback run through 2024 for the 27-year-old Wake grad, but like Finau, Will's most notable results have come on the Tour's most demanding venues. Finishes of 13th, second, and fourth at Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Bay Hill were followed up the very next month by a ninth-place finish at Augusta National -- and the underlying stats point to a profile that should be tailor-made to keep the momentum going at Muirfield Village.
Over his last 36 rounds, Zalatoris ranks inside the top 12 in Good Drive Percentage, SG: Approach, Long-Iron Proximity, and Par 5 Scoring. Since coming back from reconstructive back surgery, Zalatoris has placed an added emphasis on driving accuracy -- switching from a 46" driver down to 44. He's actually exceeded his career-long approach baselines over his last eight starts: gaining an average of 2.7 strokes per tournament with his iron play, and in his last start here at Muirfield Village, Will gained over nine strokes ball-striking in a fifth-place finish. The recent results at Harbour Town, Quail Hollow, and Valhalla have certainly left something to be desired, but I still believe Zalatoris has a game capable of contending in the biggest events in professional golf. I'm more than willing to take a swing at prices drifting past 75/80-1.
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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