RADIO
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at TPC Southwind. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship outright betting card.
The five names on this betting card are aimed at returning about six times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the over two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 26 outright winners (a 20.8% hit rate) for a profit of over 17,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 39.5%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship!
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FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Card
Collin Morikawa (16-1)
FACT: You can't birdie every hole if you don't birdie No. 1!
An early 3️⃣ on the card for @collin_morikawa. pic.twitter.com/SmQjxpSHAt
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 15, 2024
Time is running out for the Collin Morikawa marquee win we've all predicted in the summer of 2024, but what the schedule has provided us is yet another dream fit for Collin's current ball-striking trajectory. After spending the first four months of his season in the bottom half in the Tour hierarchy with his iron play, Morikawa has surged back into elite form over the last 90 days. In nine starts since May's PGA Championship, Collin has gained an average of 3.5 shots per week on approach -- a mark that exceeds his lofty career-long baseline of 3.1.
Additionally, over his last two starts, Morikawa has gained a total of 12.36 shots with his iron play at Royal Troon and Le Golf National: the best two approach weeks he's had since last year's Tour Championship, and marks that are eerily reminiscent of the ceiling he repeatedly put on display over his blackout 12-month stretch between 2020 and 2021. If Morikawa's irons are truly back to elite form, they'll be supplemented by the best extended short game splits of his entire career (+0.537 SG/Start), and a driver that tops this field in both Fairways Gained and Good Drive Percentage.
Even as one of Collin's biggest supporters in this space, I'll fully concede that although 2024 has been the best statistical season of his career, it would feel hollow without a marquee win to hang our hat on. The narrow fairways, penal rough, and vast array of water hazards of TPC Southwind should create a dream fit for Morikawa's precision play-style, and if you've ever heard a second of a Collin Morikawa press conference, you'd know just how much emphasis he puts on winning. With just three weeks left to capture one of the season's biggest titles, it's becoming a now-or-never proposition for his 2024 ambitions.
Ludvig Aberg (25-1)
A birdie on No. 1 gets Ludvig Aberg's day off to the perfect start. 🇸🇪#GenesisScottishOpen pic.twitter.com/q0HZswT7t1
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) July 13, 2024
Frankly, I didn't think we'd be coming back to Ludvig so soon after his Sunday collapse in Scotland, but if there's anything this topsy-turvy 2024 has taught me, it's that when in doubt, ignore the narratives and follow the data.
From a ball-striking perspective, there aren't many in this field who can match Ludvig's combination of Total Driving acumen and mid-iron play, as the Swede ranks inside the top five in every single one of my weighted tee-to-green metrics:
- Second in Total Driving
- Fourth in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Fifth in Birdie Chances Created
- First in Weighted Proximity
- Third in GIR Percentage
Aberg has also proven to be especially proficient on Bermuda grass, recording the three best putting weeks of his entire career at Sea Island, Bay Hill, and Pinehurst and logging his best-ever tee-to-green performance at TPC Sawgrass last March.
There are certainly some recent trends Ludvig will need to kick (particularly on Sunday) if he wants to capture the biggest title of his professional career. But in a year that's seen Xander Schauffele go from "choke artist" to a two-time Major Champion, and 12 different players capture their first ever PGA Tour title, I'm willing to back one of the best prospects we've seen in the last decade to adapt and overcome.
Keep in mind that at just 24 years old and in just 13 months as a professional, Aberg has already captured two titles around the world, logged two points for Team Europe at last fall's Ryder Cup, and finished 2nd and 12th in two of his first three Major Championship starts. Every possible metric points to him as a player destined to become one of the preeminent players in the sport -- don't let the trap of a few bad Sundays turn you away from a dream course fit this week.
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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Tom Kim (40-1)
Needed it, got it!! 🔥
Tom Kim makes birdie while Scottie Scheffler makes par.
A playoff will determine the winner @TravelersChamp. pic.twitter.com/Oo4EyqixDE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 23, 2024
He came up just short of a coveted medal in last month's Olympic Games, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a player with a more impressive statistical profile over those four days in Paris. Tom Kim gained 7.8 strokes on approach (Second in the field) and 9.76 strokes from tee-to-green (fifth) in an eighth-place finish around the treacherous Le Golf National -- proving once again that when he's well-suited for a layout, he's capable of mixing it up with the best players on the planet.
This week, Tom will get a similar test of precision driving and middle iron play; one he's already proven himself very well-equipped to handle over two appearances. Two years ago, he recorded the best ball-striking week of his young career in a 13th-place finish at Southwind (+8.0), and in 2023, Kim fired an opening-round 64 to thrust himself firmly in the mix for much of the week. A closing 72 did push him down nearly 20 spots on the leaderboard from the start of his final round, but I remain confident that we've seen enough life out of Kim here in Memphis to add it to his rotation of truly prolific course fits.
From Hamilton to River Highlands, TPC Summerlin, and Sedgefield, the 22-year-old has already carved out a distinct niche on the PGA Tour at shorter, positional venues that place a high premium on keeping the ball in the fairway. He's as reliable as you can find in the game from a driving accuracy perspective, and with the run of form he's currently on with his approach play (gained at least 3.5 shots on Approach on five separate occasions since the start of June), he's as primed as anyone in this field to give another go at his fourth PGA Tour title.
Tony Finau (50-1)
What a read from Tony Finau to birdie the 18th for the co-lead. 🔥
📺 USA Network pic.twitter.com/DITJnRtCdi
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) June 13, 2024
Although names like Collin Morikawa, Tom Kim, and Russell Henley come to the top of mind in terms of dream fits at TPC Southwind, Tony Finau has a case to outdo all of them in terms of elite approach play and driving aptitude on positional golf courses. Over his last six PGA Tour starts, Tony has gained no less than 2.8 shots on approach and averaged a whopping 5.22 strokes per event. He's also recorded top 15 driving performances at the Travelers Championship, Charles Schwab Challenge and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am all within the last six months.
Finau's incredible ball-striking ceiling (and clear question marks he possesses on the greens), draws many parallels to the likes of Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, and Lucas Glover: three of the last four past champions of the St. Jude. With a fifth-place finish already to his name in this event two years ago, the benign green complexes of Southwind that have repeatedly elevated bad putters, and the recent tee-to-green form he carries into the Playoffs, I'm more than happy to bite the bullet at 50-1 on yet another long-anticipated breakthrough win.
Wyndham Clark (85-1)
A dart from the defending champ 🎯@Wyndham_Clark cards his second birdie of the day @USOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/IMEHvlXF2b
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 14, 2024
It's hardly been the most consistent season for the former World No. 3, but there have been noticeable through-lines in Wyndham's top results. The first has been his proclivity to pop up in the Tour's elevated events: exclusive contests reserved only for the PGA's top 70 names. From his win at Pebble Beach in February, his back-to-back runner-ups in Florida, and additional three top-ten's in Scotland, Connecticut, and South Carolina, Wyndham has routinely raised his baselines in these short-field settings.
Second, and more pertinently for this week, has been Clark's obvious affinity for the Tour's shorter, more positional venues. Over the last six months, he's already logged a win at 6,800-yard Pebble Beach, a T3 at 7,100-yard Harbour Town, a T9 at 6,800-yard River Highlands, and a T2 around TPC Sawgrass: one of the only courses on Tour with a greater penalty fraction then we project in Memphis this week.
In his last start, Clark faced another stiff tee-to-green test of driving accuracy, penalty avoidance, and middle-iron play at Le Golf National. And despite opening with a much-maligned (+4) 75, he closed his week with rounds of 68, 65, and 65 to surge forty-four spots up the leaderboard into a tie for 14th. There's far too much life (and proven win equity) in Clark's profile to explain an 85-1 price tag in this 70-man field. I'm more than willing to lean into his volatility as the 30th-highest priced golfer in this field.
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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