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Justin Carter takes a look at five risky fantasy football rookies worth gambling on in 2024. These NFL rookies are potential fantasy football sleepers.
There are some rookies this year who fantasy football managers know they can trust, like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. There are also plenty of guys taken late in the NFL Draft or signed as UDFAs who fantasy managers know they can't trust.
But what about that middle, those risky rookies whose 2024 value could go either way? What do we make of those players? Which ones have upside this season?
Below are five risky rookies in fantasy football who could pay off under the right circumstances.
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Trey Benson - RB - Arizona Cardinals
James Conner is once again set to enter a season as the Arizona Cardinals starter after rushing for a career-high 1,040 yards last season. His career resurgence after joining the Cardinals in 2021 has been a lot of fun to watch.
But Conner is also a 29-year-old running back entering his eighth NFL season. The cliff is coming for Conner and while there's no guarantee he hits it this year, he's going to hit it at some point. It could be as early as 2024.
.@MatthewBerryTMR sees RB Trey Benson as the Cardinals' starter in the near future. 👀 #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/0KRyCsNZOc
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) April 27, 2024
In that case, I think rostering Arizona's backup running back in a deep league is smart. In theory, at least. But the running back room is a bit of an enigma behind Conner. There's rookie third-round pick Trey Benson, and there's also DeeJay Dallas, Michael Carter, Emari Demercado and Tony Jones.
Of all those names, Benson has the most upside. The rookie out of Florida State brings a lot of speed to the field and should have a role even if Conner is still himself. However, if Conner falters, Benson has the toughness and power to serve as the team's early down back.
Keon Coleman - WR - Buffalo Bills
The Bills have the most confusing wide receiver room in the NFL. After letting Gabe Davis walk and then trading Stefon Diggs, the team enters 2024 with the following veteran players on the roster: Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, K.J. Hamler, and Andy Isabella.
So, you can see why rookie second-round pick Keon Coleman is appealing, as he doesn't have a lot of competition to keep him off the field.
The 6-foot-3 receiver out of Florida State caught 11 touchdowns last season. He only finished with 658 yards, but he played on a team that also featured Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell in the receiving game, plus FSU's offense just isn't really a high-powered attack, ranking 46th in passing yards per game.
If Coleman's athleticism translates to the next level like it should, he can be an immediate impact player for the Bills, and the huge void in targets left from Diggs and Davis departing means opportunities are aplenty. Still, trusting a rookie receiver in fantasy is always a risk, as they often take some time to get up to speed.
Troy Franklin - WR - Denver Broncos
There were a lot of people, including me, who expected Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin to go earlier than he did in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, he wound up falling to the fourth round, mostly due to concerns that his slim frame might not hold up to the rigors of NFL life.
Still, Franklin set the Ducks' single-season records for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last season with 1,383 yards and 14 trips to the end zone He's a fast player who should provide a downfield target for Bo Nix.
Oh yes, there's also this: Franklin is being paired up with his college quarterback, Bo Nix. That familiarity should be a plus for Franklin, especially with a receiver room that feels wide open after the No. 1 guy, Courtland Sutton.
The risky side of this is that the Broncos have a player in Marvin Mims Jr. who could do a lot of the things Franklin can do, and making an impact as a fourth-round pick is tough. This will be something to monitor in camp and the preseason.
Malachi Corley - WR - New York Jets
Malachi Corley feels like a pretty divisive player right now in fantasy football circles. The Western Kentucky product caught 22 touchdowns over his final two seasons with the Hilltoppers, but the team ran a very pass-happy offense, so it's fair to wonder how Corley will adjust not only to the increased competition level in the NFL but also to the increased difficulty of learning how to be an NFL player.
But the 5-foot-11 receiver brings strong hands and solid speed with him to the next level. If he can figure out how to expand his route tree, he could be a nice slot weapon for the Jets and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Beating out Xavier Gipson for snaps in the slot shouldn't be too difficult.
Corley's biggest appeal is that he won't have a ton of competition for snaps and that he'll be on the field with Rodgers, a quarterback who has historically utilized slot receivers well, specifically with Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. I know there are plenty of people, like RotoBaller's own Kev Mahserejian, who don't see big things happening with Corley this year.
the New York Jets watched Malachi Corley run routes like a semi-truck making a u-turn yet drafted him over Jermaine Burton and Jalen McMillan it’s such a shame
— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) July 18, 2024
But I just think the upside here outweighs the downside when you factor in that Corley is basically free in fantasy, as he's currently being drafted outside the top 200.
Bo Nix - QB - Denver Broncos
Look, if you're in a single-QB fantasy league, you can go ahead and ignore Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix. QB is a pretty deep position and you don't need to trust a rookie this year outside of Caleb Williams, who most view as a solid QB2. Beyond that, you have guys like Nix, J.J. McCarthy, and Drake Maye, who feel like high-end QB3s at best heading into the season.
But of those three players, Nix is the most likely to break out as a rookie. After a long college career, Nix has made a lot of strides with his accuracy, going from a 57.6% completion rate as a freshman at Auburn all the way up to a 77.4% rate in his fifth season at Oregon. In 2023, Nix not only led the NCAA in completion percentage, but he also led it in passing yards per attempt and passing touchdowns.
Now, he comes to a Sean Payton-coached Broncos team that is probably still a couple of weapons away from being the best possible situation for the rookie, but that is still a good spot for him. Outside of Williams, he's the most likely rookie QB to be a starter by Week 1, and Payton has a long history of getting the best out of quarterbacks. I'm not saying Nix is the next Drew Brees, but I trust Payton to build an offense that makes use of Nix's best skills.
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