RADIO
A weekly look back at the NASCAR Cup Series predictions and projections from the RotoBaller DFS NASCAR team.
Early in the week following every NASCAR Cup Series race, we will look back at the most recent event for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-established NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes all the content you need to climb the tournament ladders and prevail in cash games every week on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR analysts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward. Recent trends will be identified and we will highlight where Jordan and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
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William Byron Shines Again
In the preseason, William Byron had the second-best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship, at +600. While it is still early in the schedule, Byron looks like he has a good chance of delivering on that wager after earning his third win of the 2024 campaign on Sunday.
In his pre-race driver news update on RotoBaller.com, Adam Erhardt pointed out that Byron was underpriced on DraftKings at $9,800. In his previous four races at Martinsville before Sunday, the No. 24 driver had posted an average of 58.13 DK points at the site. Byron won at Martinsville in 2022 and had finished seventh or better in four of six starts there coming into Sunday’s event.
Four of the last six William Byron wins have come when his official starting position was 18th -- Atlanta last summer, Texas last fall and then Daytona and Martinsville this year.
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 8, 2024
The 26-year-old Hendrick Motorsports star has already won at a highly unpredictable superspeedway (Daytona), on a road course (Circuit of The Americas), and on the shortest of short tracks (Martinsville) so far this season. He is obviously capable of winning at any track right now, and as the Cup Series heads to Texas next week, Byron will be a prime pick again. He won the most recent race at the site and has finished in the top two in two of his last three Texas starts.
Algorithm Accuracies
One of the core features of RotoBaller’s DFS NASCAR coverage is Jordan McAbee’s unique and proven algorithm for predicted finishes, which was naturally on point for several drivers at Martinsville. Many unique statistics are mixed into the algorithm formula, including recent performances overall and at specific tracks, similar track performances, projected strength of the cars, practice speeds, starting positions, and other key factors.
The algorithm determines a "Power Index" number for each driver to display which cars will have the best speeds during the race. All of the drivers are ranked by their Power Index numbers to produce the predicted finishing order of the event.
Four of the top-six finishers at Martinsville were correctly identified by Jordan’s algorithm. Kyle Larson, one of his prime highlighted picks, finished second and had the highest Driver Rating of the day (126.8). He also led for 86 laps, just two less than Byron.
Chase Elliott was projected to finish fourth and he placed third while logging the most Fastest Laps Run (41), and Bubba Wallace was projected to finish sixth and placed fourth. Jordan also nailed a top-five showing for Ryan Blaney.
Cash Spotlight
Your next race following the RotoBaller NASCAR team could turn out to be the big one for a cash payout. Check out this recent result from Phoenix.
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Also, you should be following Jordan for NASCAR betting purposes, as here is a snapshot from one of his recent runs of success.
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✅ Logano top 10 +120
✅ Byron top 10 +105
✅ #FadeBlaney H2Hs pic.twitter.com/9UdMWEr2Yy— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) April 1, 2024
Forecast of the Week
Ryan Preece: “Preece is great on short tracks, and these venues are really the only place we can think about using him. He comes at a bit of an uncomfortable price tag, but the place differential potential is there to make up for that. Preece finished 15th and 20th here last season.” – That was McAbee’s pre-race scouting report on Preece, who started 22nd. Place Differential points were tougher to come by at Martinsville, and Preece finished in ninth.
Around the Track
-Driver news writer Sean Engel, a 12-time DFS tournament winner, backed up the recommendation of Elliott, noting that his results were starting to pick up recently and Martinsville was one of his better tracks to run on. Both of his top-10 finishes on the season coming into Sunday were on short tracks, and he had 17 top-10 finishes in 17 career Martinsville starts. Elliott has never won at Texas, though, and has not finished in the top five in his last 11 starts at the site.
-Erik Jones turned out to be a good value play, as recommended by Erhardt. For only $6,600 on DraftKings, Jones finished 12th, providing some decent Place Differential output after starting 17th.
-Justin Carter, who supplies the weekly Xfinity Series previews on RotoBaller, came through with a gem of a pick at Martinsville. Chandler Smith finished third after starting 37th - I've got this in italics to set the play apart. "Smith probably won't lead 100-plus laps because he starts 37th, but he's a top Place Differential option and someone who could get up there and challenge for the victory. He can dominate in terms of fantasy score, even if he doesn't dominate the actual race.”
